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Started By
Message
re: Francine - Landfall in Terrebonne Parish as CAT 2 100 mph
Posted on 9/10/24 at 7:13 pm to Cosmo
Posted on 9/10/24 at 7:13 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Euro now the outlier west model
Through landfall the 18z Euro is basically smack dab on top of the 18z GFS landfall at Point Au Fer. That's the most agreement they've had in days.
1
Posted on 9/10/24 at 7:14 pm to Turnblad85
quote:
common sence.
Every time
Posted on 9/10/24 at 7:14 pm to maisweh
Put it on weather channel. Latest model shows that. Never mind, don’t put on weather channel - they are full of shite.
This post was edited on 9/10/24 at 7:17 pm
Posted on 9/10/24 at 7:15 pm to Mr Roboto
It's never been forecasted to make landfall in Texas.
The cone has shifted a whole 30 miles since the center formed.
The cone has shifted a whole 30 miles since the center formed.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 7:15 pm to Chad504boy
quote:
They are better off predicting Atlantic waves 2000 miles away
Which are controlled by the trade winds and even peej could predict "theyre going west".
Posted on 9/10/24 at 7:16 pm to slackster
I hate this for the River Parishes. They went through enough with Ida. Please somehow spare them.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 7:16 pm to The Boat
quote:
The cone has shifted a whole 30 miles since the center formed.
Which is the whole reason I was looking for the cone gif.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 7:17 pm to The Boat
quote:
The cone has shifted a whole 30 miles since the center formed.
Ole Troy, sippin' on a Miller Light after his millwright shift, ain't impressed.
This post was edited on 9/10/24 at 7:18 pm
Posted on 9/10/24 at 7:17 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Do you know where to find the gif of all the cones? I had it for Barrel, but can't find it for this one. It is a gif with each successive cone.
Hope this helps
Posted on 9/10/24 at 7:17 pm to DhanTigers212
quote:
I hate this for the River Parishes. They went through enough with Ida. Please somehow spare them.
..yeah....
A lot of people still aren't fully recovered. Still some gutted houses where I live.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 7:18 pm to Mr Roboto
Yikes. That's quite a bit of difference since they've been targeting Louisiana with the cone.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 7:18 pm to slackster
quote:
Which are controlled by the trade winds and even peej could predict "theyre going west".
He'd no doubt, 100% get a "Wrong Way Lenny" storm.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 7:18 pm to duchuntintiger
quote:
Katz is an idiot
quote:
just soon
Posted on 9/10/24 at 7:18 pm to NorthEndZone
What do you see as the max in madisonville on that gif of the gfs? The frames go by so fast it seems the top is only 25-30kts.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 7:19 pm to Jake88
Posted on 9/10/24 at 7:20 pm to The Boat
quote:
The cone has shifted a whole 30 miles since the center formed.
Feels like a decent time to repost this from earlier today:
For starters, they issued 3 forecast advisories before it was even a tropical storm (“potential tropical cyclone”) which is designed to give people early warning if they think something is imminent. Those forecast are inherently tricky since there isn’t even a well defined center, but it was the initial forecast that was on the state line.
Since it’s been a verified storm, the furthest west they’ve been was Freshwater City, which is essentially central LA.
If it makes landfall in central Terrebonne Parish, they will have been off by about 150 miles as the crow flies from their original forecast on Sunday @ 4pm. Their 1 standard deviation error over the last 5 years has been 115 miles 72 hours out. 1 standard deviation either direction equates to a 65% chance the storm will end up in the cone at a given date, and that’s how the cone is set. This may end up outside of that, but not by a large margin.
If you give them the benefit of the doubt and use the first forecast after it was named, they’ll miss by 80 miles @ 60 hours out, which is well within their 100 mile standard deviation (and cone) at that interval.
Hope this helps.
NHC Cone Methodology
Posted on 9/10/24 at 7:20 pm to slackster
quote:
Do you know where to find the gif of all the cones? I had it for Barrel, but can't find it for this one. It is a gif with each successive cone.
The Katrina one is something else
Posted on 9/10/24 at 7:20 pm to The Boat
quote:
The cone has shifted a whole 30 miles since the center formed.
Remind me. Exactly when did "the center form"?
Posted on 9/10/24 at 7:20 pm to The Boat
quote:
It's never been forecasted to make landfall in Texas.
That's a hair length between orange and Vinton to now potentially east of new Orleans
This post was edited on 9/10/24 at 7:22 pm
Posted on 9/10/24 at 7:20 pm to Jake88
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