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re: Francine - Landfall in Terrebonne Parish as CAT 2 100 mph

Posted on 9/9/24 at 10:56 pm to
Posted by buford4LSU
Thibodaux, LA
Member since Jan 2008
2643 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 10:56 pm to
Yep, GFS run takes it over Morgan city, Thibodaux, River parishes
Posted by GeauxFish31
Member since May 2024
3039 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 10:56 pm to
It’s on Twitter from LSU
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
131574 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 10:57 pm to
quote:

Recon fix was 23 miles almost due south of where the location was on the 10PM update. That could be an interesting wrinkle, but I couldn't tell anyone what impact it will have, if any.



Youd think the more time it dicks around down there the more time it has to interact with the trough and thus slightly more east
Posted by SWLA92
SWLA
Member since Feb 2015
5054 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 10:58 pm to
What I noticed with the 00z GFS it’s gets close to the Louisiana coastline and basically goes straight east then north to make landfall on the east side of Vermillion bay. Don’t know what would cause it slow down enough to get to move due east before landfall
Posted by Overbrook
Member since May 2013
6407 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 10:58 pm to
Except that it’ll take Entergy a week to get the power back on.

My AP subdivision has buried lines. But it doesn’t matter when (what I assume are) the feeder lines are strung through the trees.

My sister in Lafayette has buried lines and she never loses power from a hurricane. Ever..
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 10:59 pm to


00z GFS essentially unchanged on location with the 18z. Only notable difference is the 00z is a little quicker by a couple of hours.
Posted by SomethingLikeA
Member since Jul 2013
1232 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 10:59 pm to
quote:

But this looks like a mere inconvenience for a day


Nobody afraid of 12 hours wind + rain. It’s the 48 to 96+ hours of no power that follow.
Posted by Mr Roboto
Seattle
Member since Jan 2023
8153 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 11:00 pm to
LSU will close Wed-Fri

You have my word
Posted by UncleRuckus
Member since Feb 2013
10050 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 11:00 pm to
quote:

Hurricane parties were great in college, let her enjoy these times where these weather events are fun…you know before you age and realize what a shitty, giant pain in the dick they are

That was my initial thoughts as well, just figured I’d ask since there’s BR and former LSU people on here
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75150 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 11:01 pm to
The eye is starting to look more fully closed now than it has up to this point on radar.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 11:03 pm to
quote:

Youd think the more time it dicks around down there the more time it has to interact with the trough and thus slightly more east


It's only supposed to move like 150 miles over the next 24 hours down there, so I don't think this is really anything big, just thought it was worth noting.
Posted by beauchristopher
Member since Jan 2008
73752 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 11:04 pm to
quote:

My sister in Lafayette has buried lines and she never loses power from a hurricane. Ever..


Must be nice. How do I get this? Must be an OT money special.
This post was edited on 9/9/24 at 11:07 pm
Posted by dukke v
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
216467 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 11:05 pm to
Fact…..
Posted by Ancient Astronaut
Member since May 2015
37333 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 11:06 pm to
I could see a few power outages but hopefully nothing crazy
This post was edited on 9/9/24 at 11:07 pm
Posted by SippyCup
Gulf Coast
Member since Sep 2008
7003 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 11:07 pm to
quote:

My sister in Lafayette has buried lines


I buried something in your sister but it wasn’t a power line.
Posted by tigafan4life
Member since Dec 2006
50987 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 11:08 pm to
I am no fan of BR being in the NE quadrant. That’s where the shiftiest weather is and tornadoes spawn from. :(
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50755 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 11:08 pm to
quote:

What I noticed with the 00z GFS it’s gets close to the Louisiana coastline and basically goes straight east then north to make landfall on the east side of Vermillion bay. Don’t know what would cause it slow down enough to get to move due east before landfall

I don't see that




Edit: This is wind gusts as depicted by the 0z GFS run.
This post was edited on 9/9/24 at 11:11 pm
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 11:09 pm to
quote:

What I noticed with the 00z GFS it’s gets close to the Louisiana coastline and basically goes straight east then north to make landfall on the east side of Vermillion bay. Don’t know what would cause it slow down enough to get to move due east before landfall


I think that has more to do with the gaps between the frames than it does anything with the steering of the storm. Everything I'm seeing is a pretty consistent NNE 9 hours before and after landfall.
Posted by fr33manator
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2010
134643 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 11:09 pm to
So how bad is BR gonna get it?

I'm getting my generator serviced tomorrow. Gonna do what I can. Likely work nothing Wednesday and emergency hours Thursday, but still trying to leave on Friday noonish


Am I just fricked?
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 11:10 pm to
Your gif shows wind gusts - just pointing this out before people flip out.
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