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Started By
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2
Posted on 9/10/24 at 12:02 am to slackster
(no message)
This post was edited on 9/10/24 at 12:17 am
Posted on 9/10/24 at 12:03 am to slackster
The way it rides the coast means we get radar basically til landfall
This post was edited on 9/10/24 at 12:04 am
Posted on 9/10/24 at 12:04 am to Mr Roboto
quote:
Is the HRRR useful in this case? 00z just ran and it includes landfall.
As it gets closer to landfall it can be helpful for how bands may set up, but I don't think it is designed to handle these things out over open water.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 12:12 am to slackster
I have a flight out Wednesday afternoon to Punta Cana. Should I cancel it?
Posted on 9/10/24 at 12:15 am to slackster
00z HMON stronger and substantially east of the 18z run, which was west of Marsh Island.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 12:24 am to Mr Roboto
quote:
Is the HRRR useful in this case? 00z just ran and it includes landfall.
Rain totals, gusts over land, and other steering features like the shortwave to the west are where HRRR can help.
ETA: COD and Pivotal are the best for viewing the HRRR and Nam.
This post was edited on 9/10/24 at 12:31 am
Posted on 9/10/24 at 12:28 am to slackster
So predicted landfall will be moving east over time with this one?
Posted on 9/10/24 at 12:33 am to slackster
quote:
00z HMON stronger and substantially east of the 18z run, which was west of Marsh Island.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 12:38 am to wallowinit
quote:
So predicted landfall will be moving east over time with this one?
No clue. The 00z GFS was mostly unchanged, but still a decent bit east of the official track. The 00z HMON is now east of the official track by a bit. The 00z HWRF is running now and appears to be east of the official track too.
I don't think anything crazy will happen at 4am update, but a slight nudge closer/over Marsh Island would make sense so far.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 12:39 am to ibldprplgld
00z HWRF landfall is east of the 18z run by about 15 miles. Also a tad stronger than 18z.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 12:40 am to slackster
00z Euro sticking to its guns with a 975mb into Intracoastal City pretty much inline with the NHC. I guess we’ll have our normal duel between the West bias Euro and the East bias GFS.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 12:43 am to slackster
00z GFS Ensembles
Posted on 9/10/24 at 12:48 am to slackster
LC in the clear, bad news for SELA
Posted on 9/10/24 at 12:48 am to wallowinit
Sure would be nice for Francine to Shock the World ...take a Left over Mexico since it's so close to the coastline and Fizzle Out 
Posted on 9/10/24 at 12:49 am to SWLA92
quote:
00z Euro sticking to its guns with a 975mb into Intracoastal City pretty much inline with the NHC. I guess we’ll have our normal duel between the West bias Euro and the East bias GFS
Posted on 9/10/24 at 12:56 am to RBTiger
She’s definitely trying to flirt with Mexico. Latest track shows a due west jog the last hour or so. She should start making the NNE turn soon. I thought it would have started already.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 12:56 am to slackster
quote:
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was
located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 96.3 West. Francine
has moved little over the past few hours, but it is expected to
resume a motion toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A
slow north-northwest motion is expected through this morning,
followed by a turn to the northeast with an increase in forward
speed. On the forecast track, Francine is anticipated to be just
offshore of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas
through today, and make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Francine will likely become a hurricane today, with
significant strengthening expected before it reaches the coast.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 992 mb (29.30 inches).
Posted on 9/10/24 at 12:56 am to slackster
I'll be glad when this fricker starts moving seems been in same place for 20 hours. 
Posted on 9/10/24 at 12:59 am to SWLA92
I think also with the crazy motions of the center trying to get verticly stacked so the weird movements
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