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Started By
Message
re: Francine - Landfall in Terrebonne Parish as CAT 2 100 mph
Posted on 9/9/24 at 10:42 pm to Mr. Hangover
Posted on 9/9/24 at 10:42 pm to Mr. Hangover
00z ICON is slightly west of the 18z which took it up the Atchafalaya River. This time it's over Marsh Island. Takes it down to 973mb before landfall and land interaction.
This post was edited on 9/9/24 at 10:43 pm
2
Posted on 9/9/24 at 10:44 pm to slackster
I think the people who say New Orleans is in the clear are insane
Fingers crossed that ALL of us make it out of this unscathed
Fingers crossed that ALL of us make it out of this unscathed
Posted on 9/9/24 at 10:44 pm to Icansee4miles
My daughter lives in the dorms at LSU. I’m assuming she’ll be fine there but wondering if we should make her come home, we live just east of lake Charles
Posted on 9/9/24 at 10:44 pm to slackster
If I’m not mistaken that’s the strongest ICON run so far too
Posted on 9/9/24 at 10:45 pm to UncleRuckus
She’s with me, don’t worry.
Posted on 9/9/24 at 10:45 pm to Icansee4miles
quote:
That chart made my head hurt trying to read it. No matter, off I go for another roundtrip to Grand Isle tomorrow. I’m going to haul all my shite to Springfield, only to have the eye pass right over.
, it's not user friendly unfortunately. The other NWS link posted is a good one that people can actually read.
Posted on 9/9/24 at 10:46 pm to UncleRuckus
Looks like this will be gone come Thursday. That’s good. These are dangerous when they stalk out. But this looks like a mere inconvenience for a day.
Posted on 9/9/24 at 10:47 pm to Mr. Hangover
quote:
I realize this is probably a stupid question, but does this look like the type of hurricane that can spawn tornados?
It probably won't be anything like Barrel was, but there will be a chance mostly focused just over SE LA and part of MS. There is a Slight Risk up from the Storm Prediction Center, and this is from their discussion from earlier today:
quote:
SPC AC 091928
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST LA AND SOUTHERN MS...
...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across the central Gulf Coast vicinity on Wednesday, in association with Tropical Cyclone Francine.
...Synopsis... Tropical Cyclone Francine is currently forecast to make landfall sometime later Wednesday afternoon or evening near the LA Gulf Coast, potentially as a hurricane. Meanwhile, a relatively deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the Northwest into the Great Basin and central/northern Rockies. In response to the this trough, some deepening of surface low pressure is expected from the eastern Great Basin into Montana.
...Central Gulf Coast vicinity... See NHC forecasts and advisories for additional information regarding Francine. Some tornado threat will spread inland as Francine approaches the coast during the day before making landfall by evening. Based on current forecasts/guidance, the most favorable overlap of strengthening low-level shear/SRH and inland intrusion of tropical moisture (with dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s F) is expected across parts of southern LA/MS, where a small Slight Risk has been included. The northern extent of an appreciable tornado threat remains uncertain, with surface-based buoyancy potentially remaining quite limited into parts of central MS Wednesday night, but the Marginal Risk has been expanded based on the expected track of Francine into early Thursday morning.
..Dean.. 09/09/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Posted on 9/9/24 at 10:48 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
She’s with me, don’t worry.
what an a-hole. But that’s still funny To the poster… she’s safer on campus than driving on the interstate with frantic idiots to just be with you
Posted on 9/9/24 at 10:49 pm to RIPMachoMan
(no message)
This post was edited on 9/9/24 at 10:51 pm
Posted on 9/9/24 at 10:50 pm to RIPMachoMan
LC can’t catch a break; damn.
Posted on 9/9/24 at 10:50 pm to LegendInMyMind
Recon fix was 23 miles almost due south of where the location was on the 10PM update. That could be an interesting wrinkle, but I couldn't tell anyone what impact it will have, if any.
ETA:
I realize that isn't due south on the map here, but the fix is 23.17N, due south of the 24.3N they reported at 10PM
ETA:
I realize that isn't due south on the map here, but the fix is 23.17N, due south of the 24.3N they reported at 10PM
This post was edited on 9/9/24 at 10:56 pm
Posted on 9/9/24 at 10:51 pm to UncleRuckus
Hurricane parties were great in college, let her enjoy these times where these weather events are fun…you know before you age and realize what a shitty, giant pain in the dick they are
Posted on 9/9/24 at 10:51 pm to BilJ
Posted on 9/9/24 at 10:51 pm to slackster
0z GFS is a doozy for Baton Rouge and Houma.
Actually, the 0z GFS looks pretty similar to the GRAF.
Actually, the 0z GFS looks pretty similar to the GRAF.
This post was edited on 9/9/24 at 10:53 pm
Posted on 9/9/24 at 10:54 pm to ell_13
Ughhhh I don’t like that radar. Stupid eye is just west of BR 
Posted on 9/9/24 at 10:54 pm to ell_13
Can Rob just chill the frick out? He's been doing the most for way too long.
Posted on 9/9/24 at 10:55 pm to SW2SCLA
0z GFS has all the recon data from today as well, I believe. Is that right, rds?
Posted on 9/9/24 at 10:55 pm to slackster
quote:
Recon fix was 23 miles almost due south of where the location was on the 10PM update. That could be an interesting wrinkle, but I couldn't tell anyone what impact it will have, if any.
Kind of expected. The center wobbling/jumping around has been one constant with a lot of the models.
This post was edited on 9/9/24 at 10:56 pm
Posted on 9/9/24 at 10:56 pm to TDsngumbo
Yeah both gfs and graf just east of marsh island heading NE to ENE
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