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re: Francine - Landfall in Terrebonne Parish as CAT 2 100 mph

Posted on 9/9/24 at 3:48 pm to
Posted by Midtiger farm
Member since Nov 2014
6162 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 3:48 pm to
quote:

Looks like it keeps creeping west.


What does? The actual storm is supposed to be moving NNW right now
Posted by AmosMosesAndTwins
Lake Charles
Member since Apr 2010
19013 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 3:49 pm to
Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
26630 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 3:49 pm to
quote:

What the admins should do is make one pinned thread at the top that only these guys can post in. Then could have this thread for everybody else. Then we wouldn’t have to wade through pages and pages of dumbassery looking for legit info


They tried this, it doesn't work. And rds agreed. It creates a disjointed mess with duplicate posting and people asking questions in the regular thread a lot more for some reason. It was a shitshow last time they tried it.
Posted by BananaManCan
Member since Sep 2009
4353 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 3:49 pm to
Anybody got some extra titty milk laying around?
Posted by Jake88
Member since Apr 2005
79984 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 3:51 pm to
quote:

it's getting buttfricked by dry air it appears. shows on radar too
Yeah! PIIHB
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 3:51 pm to
quote:

What the admins should do is make one pinned thread at the top that only these guys can post in. Then could have this thread for everybody else. Then we wouldn’t have to wade through pages and pages of dumbassery looking for legit info


We did this once and it didn’t go as well as you’d hope. People had a lot of questions but couldn’t get anything answered since they couldn’t post in the “expert” thread, which basically turned into the experts posting in the shitpost thread just like they do now.
Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
178996 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 3:52 pm to
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75150 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 3:52 pm to
quote:

What the admins should do is make one pinned thread at the top that only these guys can post in. Then could have this thread for everybody else. Then we wouldn’t have to wade through pages and pages of dumbassery looking for legit info

This has to be on the new BINGO card.
Posted by TH03
Mogadishu
Member since Dec 2008
172004 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 3:52 pm to
those are interpolated. it's just the 12z model run with the starting point changed to where francine was located at 18z. it's not a new run
Posted by Midtiger farm
Member since Nov 2014
6162 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 3:52 pm to
you see that gray one that says tvcn - thats the one that the NHC follows - it didn't shift west 40 miles - neither did the gfs/euro/euro AI or any of the hurricane models
Posted by TH03
Mogadishu
Member since Dec 2008
172004 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 3:53 pm to
cat 2 forecast:

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 27.4N 94.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 70NW.

This post was edited on 9/9/24 at 3:57 pm
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 3:53 pm to
quote:

At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 96.0 West. Francine is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A continued north-northwest motion is expected through this evening followed by a turn to the northeast with some acceleration beginning Tuesday. On the forecast track, Francine is anticipated to be just offshore of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas through Tuesday, and nearing the Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days, and Francine is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Tuesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).
Posted by BananaManCan
Member since Sep 2009
4353 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 3:54 pm to
Not good
This post was edited on 9/9/24 at 3:54 pm
Posted by AmosMosesAndTwins
Lake Charles
Member since Apr 2010
19013 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 3:54 pm to
I see, forgive my ignorance.
Posted by back9Tiger
Island Coconut Salesman
Member since Nov 2005
17960 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 3:54 pm to
I don't like that run at all for SELA.
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43295 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 3:55 pm to
...FRANCINE QUICKLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE LOUISIANA COAST...
Posted by AutoYes_Clown
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2012
5365 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 3:55 pm to
quote:

Imagine providing a TD weather update to your boss and then having to explain where it came from since it’s hours ahead of anything else.


True Story: During a project meeting of 200+ people (office of 1,000 or so), when Hurricane Ida started targeting Louisiana, the Project Manager began the meeting safety topic on the Tigerdroppings OT Weather thread. RDS DC, LegendInMyMind, Duke, GEAUXmedic etc were all in there. The first post had graphics/info and another thread/page showed all the closings, emergency contact info, etc. We stayed on tigerdroppings for about 20 minutes. It was the best storm update I've ever had at my company.

RDS DC may be my (former) Project Manager.
Posted by bayoudude
Member since Dec 2007
25907 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 3:55 pm to
Yeah not liking that significant strengthening part
Posted by Thib-a-doe Tiger
Member since Nov 2012
36763 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 3:56 pm to
That puts me in the eyewall
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 3:56 pm to
quote:

With the center becoming better established, the motion is a bit easier to estimate, currently at 340/6 kt. While the system has reformed a bit west of the previous track, the overall thinking has not changed much, as Francine will be moving around the periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over Cuba, and an upper-level trough propagating into Texas. This trough will ultimately shift the track of a more vertically deep Francine northeastward tomorrow with gradual acceleration until the storm makes landfall sometime between 48 to 60 h. The track guidance this cycle has shifted westward, likely due to the more westward initial position, and is also a little faster. The latest NHC track forecast follows suit, showing a shift to the west and a faster motion, blending the prior forecast towards the reliable consensus aids TCVN and HCCA.
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