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re: For folks that are old enough to remember the high inflation of 70s-80s
Posted on 6/19/22 at 10:45 pm to TutHillTiger
Posted on 6/19/22 at 10:45 pm to TutHillTiger
quote:
it shut damn near everything down. Even government projects planned for years were put on hold
Low interest rates incentivize spending/borrowing and high interest rates incentive holding/lending. That's the entire point.
Posted on 6/19/22 at 10:48 pm to EarlyCuyler3
quote:
can't imagine buying a home right now and paying 10's of K's over asking. The whole market is just fricked.
Agreed. It sucks because I should be looking to but right now but I can’t pay these prices. Now interest rate rising too, I just can’t feel good about buying a home bright now.
Posted on 6/19/22 at 10:52 pm to supadave3
I'm at the point now where I just assume I won't buy another home until we have a major reset. It sucks throwing away money in rent, but I'm not going to commit to a 30 year note on something that is insanely overpriced and that I don't get immediate equity in. Although who knows, maybe going ahead and buying and then just planning on walking away if and when the bottom falls out is the smart move just in case they put off the invevitable another decade. Not like a bankruptcy mark on your credit would be that big of a deal whenever it collapses.
Posted on 6/19/22 at 10:58 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:
Well it was nearly 30 years ago, so I would hope so
Median household income:
1985 - $24k
2021 - $80k
3.33x
Median home price
1985 - $82k
Q4 2022 - $423k
>5x
Not as bad as I thought, but housing outpacing wages significantly.
Posted on 6/19/22 at 11:09 pm to Hank R Hill
quote:
If I remember right gas was 79 cents a gallon and went way over a dollar but never got down below a dollar again.
Obviously, it depends on where you lived.
Gas prices were on average in the US under $1 until 1980 and the Iran-Iraq war. This persisted until the glut in the late 80s when it dropped below a dollar again and did not rise above it until Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990. Price in SC never got above $1 a gallon until late 1990 and then never dropped below the $1 point again. It got close in 92/93 and then again in 98 where you could find regular under $1 at some SC stations but it was rare.
Posted on 6/19/22 at 11:10 pm to saintforlife1
Wait until car interest rates hit 15%. People can rent housing, but many need a car.
Car sales will come to a screeching halt and the UAWs gonna have the Democrats skins.
All this schitt is related and trickles down.
Biden’s gonna print more money and send out checks, ultimately making everything 10x’s worse.
I expect some Lehman Bros, Bear Stearns types of collapses with no government bailouts.
Car sales will come to a screeching halt and the UAWs gonna have the Democrats skins.
All this schitt is related and trickles down.
Biden’s gonna print more money and send out checks, ultimately making everything 10x’s worse.
I expect some Lehman Bros, Bear Stearns types of collapses with no government bailouts.
Posted on 6/19/22 at 11:13 pm to EarlyCuyler3
Could buy a house and when rates drop, refinance
Posted on 6/19/22 at 11:24 pm to Homerun12
quote:
when rates drop
That could be a while
Posted on 6/19/22 at 11:27 pm to MakeMoney
Also assumes you could get it at asking, which you can't.
Posted on 6/19/22 at 11:28 pm to MakeMoney
i arkansas there was a law that set interest rates , as a result you couldnt get any credit
Posted on 6/19/22 at 11:33 pm to rltiger
quote:
Wait until car interest rates hit 15%. People can rent housing, but many need a car.
Don’t most auto companies hold their own loans, thus allowing them to keep low and many times zero interest rates.
Posted on 6/19/22 at 11:39 pm to saintforlife1
Start getting ready for a lot of home-cooked meals based off of things you can catch
Posted on 6/19/22 at 11:42 pm to saintforlife1
Middle class finna be lower class.
Posted on 6/19/22 at 11:43 pm to SippyCup
quote:
Don’t most auto companies hold their own loans, thus allowing them to keep low and many times zero interest rates.
They are based on the 10 year Treasury rate. Even big auto companies have to borrow money to lend money.
Posted on 6/20/22 at 12:03 am to saintforlife1
Prices are going to have to come way back down because people are quitting different products. Name brand soft drinks like Coke, whose price has nearly doubled in 18 months (aka decades worth of 2% annual inflation) are just sitting on the shelves untouched at the grocery store. Meanwhile all the cheap knock offs are sold out. There will have to be huge price deflation for them to get their customers back.
Also, we were the only ones in the line at Canes today. Which is significant since there is usually a line wrapped in circles around the place. And the usually busy streets in town were empty. And Home Depot had 90% of its parking lot available on Sunday afternoon.
Right now all the talk is 8% inflation and how are they going to get it under control. Shite. I think its going to crash down to nothing. Using soft drinks as the example, either they have 0% inflation for the next 30+ years before their price is justified, or you get 40% deflation soon to come back down to competitive levels.
So then you end up in a situation where the federal reserve has a 2% annual inflation goal, and instead gets deflation because prices where so blown out post pandemic.
This could be a wild ride we are on.
Also, we were the only ones in the line at Canes today. Which is significant since there is usually a line wrapped in circles around the place. And the usually busy streets in town were empty. And Home Depot had 90% of its parking lot available on Sunday afternoon.
Right now all the talk is 8% inflation and how are they going to get it under control. Shite. I think its going to crash down to nothing. Using soft drinks as the example, either they have 0% inflation for the next 30+ years before their price is justified, or you get 40% deflation soon to come back down to competitive levels.
So then you end up in a situation where the federal reserve has a 2% annual inflation goal, and instead gets deflation because prices where so blown out post pandemic.
This could be a wild ride we are on.
This post was edited on 6/20/22 at 12:08 am
Posted on 6/20/22 at 12:17 am to gumbo2176
quote:My parents got married in 1974 and her dad paid the down payment on the house I grew up in. I believe the loan was variable and a few years later had to lock in a 30yr fixed refi in the teens. Right after the 2008 crash we bought our house in spring 2009 at just under 5% with half a point.
Interest rates for buying a house in the late 70's-early 80's were in the double digit range, which was insane.
Thankfully my parents taught me a lesson from their mistake. We also got extremely lucky by not building in Florida 18 months before the "market will never go down!" crashed. I had several coworkers who got caught up in that...several of whom were loaned money thanks to Clinton's "minority" friendly FHA no-doc policies that were ignored by W post-9/11.
I hung out with my dad over the weekend and it's really crazy...my grandpa was my son's age during the GD. My dad was 30 during the '82 recession, was obviously alive for the 2009 recession, and was telling me how much this reminded him of the late 70s. My grandpa was part of the GG and died just before the housing bubble burst (late spring 2008). This is probably my dad's last and I how to live long enough to see one more cycle play out. I don't want to get into politics but it's sickening when the financial people appointed by the geriatric current occupant of the WH were warned yet let the printers go 24/7. It's insane that every level jobs for college graduates aren't much more than the "$15 living wage" people are getting paid to flip burgers...and of course the answer to that is just writing off debt which will only make inflation worse.
Posted on 6/20/22 at 6:04 am to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:well the geniuses quadrupled US dollars since the ‘08 crash. Banks don’t need your money to lend like they used to
All while now, as the mortgage rates are quickly climbing towards 8%+ and "high yield" savings accounts are like 1.25%
Posted on 6/20/22 at 6:35 am to DTRooster
I don’t know what to expect. I make very good money for a non OT baller but the unknown has me nervous. I’m about to cut the wife off and do a thorough review of our monthly expenses to see where we can cut back. I’m on a 20 year plan to retire and put away roughly 60-75k per year. The last thing I want to do is cut into that and have to extend work.
Posted on 6/20/22 at 6:37 am to saintforlife1
You likely won't see a 30 year mortgage under 6% for 10 years, minimum.
Posted on 6/20/22 at 6:39 am to saintforlife1
Late to the discussion here, but here's what I remember:
Prices in general will continue to climb for a while. Gold will increase in value as one would expect. (It got to over $900 an ounce back in the late 70s.) CD's from banks reached an interest rate of 11.2% for a 12-month CD in 1979 - I remember that one well. It was my first CD to purchase.
I was very young back then but was well aware of what inflation was doing. It even affected the price of toys I would purchase at a Woolworth or Sears store.
Energy conservation was the big item the government pushed. "Make sure to turn the lights out un any room you're not using," and things akin to that. Sort of like being told to "make sure your tires are inflated properly" by Obama and Biden in order to reach optimum mileage in your car.
As things cooled off and inflation slowed under Reagan, interest rates were dropped to incredible lows to get people to start spending again. In the md 1980s, interest rates on new cars were frequently offered at 0.0% just to entice people into buying a new car again.
One thing that rings true, and that we need to remember, is that this country's economy makes its swings based upon the availability of energy - particularly fossil fuels and especially petroleum. The ills our economy is currently facing can be traced directly to Biden's actions in hindering exploration, production, refining, and transportation of oil and petroleum products. It is not an accident that we're here. It was done by design to "fundamentally transform America." In order to "build back better" a significant portion of the existing structure must be demolished. Currently, we're in the middle of the demolition phase and it ain't a pretty thing. I have my serious doubts about the idea that what is built back is going to be better than what they have in Venezuela, much less anything better than what we once had in this nation.
Overall, it's going to get worse before it gets better. There's no easy fix at this point.
Prices in general will continue to climb for a while. Gold will increase in value as one would expect. (It got to over $900 an ounce back in the late 70s.) CD's from banks reached an interest rate of 11.2% for a 12-month CD in 1979 - I remember that one well. It was my first CD to purchase.
I was very young back then but was well aware of what inflation was doing. It even affected the price of toys I would purchase at a Woolworth or Sears store.
Energy conservation was the big item the government pushed. "Make sure to turn the lights out un any room you're not using," and things akin to that. Sort of like being told to "make sure your tires are inflated properly" by Obama and Biden in order to reach optimum mileage in your car.
As things cooled off and inflation slowed under Reagan, interest rates were dropped to incredible lows to get people to start spending again. In the md 1980s, interest rates on new cars were frequently offered at 0.0% just to entice people into buying a new car again.
One thing that rings true, and that we need to remember, is that this country's economy makes its swings based upon the availability of energy - particularly fossil fuels and especially petroleum. The ills our economy is currently facing can be traced directly to Biden's actions in hindering exploration, production, refining, and transportation of oil and petroleum products. It is not an accident that we're here. It was done by design to "fundamentally transform America." In order to "build back better" a significant portion of the existing structure must be demolished. Currently, we're in the middle of the demolition phase and it ain't a pretty thing. I have my serious doubts about the idea that what is built back is going to be better than what they have in Venezuela, much less anything better than what we once had in this nation.
Overall, it's going to get worse before it gets better. There's no easy fix at this point.
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