re: First case of COVID-19 in France traced back to December 27

I have no proof but I find it hard to believe that China immediately quarantined Wuhan upon the first publicly discussed case in October. This may have been spreading for a couple of months before they realized it.

Unless of course it was intentionally released.

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We all knew you were one of the posters I was referring to. You didn't need to reinforce that point.

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Well that’s an ironic self burn of confirmation bias/delusion because I haven’t even talked about the news topic in the OP one way or another so it’s literally impossible to be one of the posters you were referring to.

At least in reality.

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Yes. I’m arguing a person who had no logical reason to have been exposed (e.g., travel) and no external supportive evidence of exposure and/or spread to and from the individual, then it’s unlikely he/she had the virus a month before the travel-related importation of the virus.

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Didn’t share any details other than where he lives. I have no idea who he interacted with.

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If the entire US population was tested for antibodies before anyone was infected, then a test with when a 99% specificity would result in 3.31 million positive test results, all being false positives.

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He also had all the symptoms and went to the hospital

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But I doubt it was spreading much sooner than that, and in places with a far less probability of introduction than New York

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Perhaps we just have different ideas of what constitutes “introduction”. Maybe it’s just not that contagious.

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Well that’s an ironic self burn of confirmation bias/delusion because I haven’t even talked about the news topic in the OP one way or another so it’s literally impossible to be one of the posters you were referring to.

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Yet here you are, combating someone for suggesting that this virus is more manageable than previously believed. Like clockwork.

This is good news. It suggests that we can naturally combat this virus without shutting down countries. I'm not sure why such a suggestion would bother you, but it clearly does.

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Yet here you are, combating someone for suggesting that this virus is more manageable than previously believed. Like clockwork.

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By posting a graph from the CDC showing a spike in ILI mortality?

And it wasn’t combat. Phrasing seemed odd and I asked about it, seemed like he was saying it was no different from a normal year. Golfer is one of those whose views I respect. Get thicker skin if you think that post was an attack.

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It suggests that we can naturally combat this virus without shutting down countries. I'm not sure why such a suggestion would bother you, but it clearly does.

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Link to where it bothered me? Because I can show previous posts where I felt we should open up based on the data.

That circular confirmation bias strawman coming back around.

Settle down, Kyle.

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Didn’t share any details other than where he lives. I have no idea who he interacted with.

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And the timing of his symptoms which implies that he was infected in December.

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He also had all the symptoms and went to the hospital

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And that was right during the peak of flu season, and 500,000 to 1,000,000 people are hospitalized for the flu and upwards of 20 million have to seek some sort of medical care.

In addition, the one useful part of the Stanford antibody study was the antibody prevalence of those who reported various symptoms. Of those who reported a fever in and a cough in the previous 2 weeks (end of March) 4% tested positive for antibodies, and for those who reported them during the previous 2 months, 2% tested positive.

In fact, those who are tested for COVID-19 are largely symptomatic and/or have been exposed, and 5/6 of those w are tested do not test positive.

So given the timing of his symptoms and infection, plus all of the alternatives that could have caused those symptoms, and the fact that the majority of people who have those symptoms at the right time and location to have COVID-19 still aren't positive, then it's highly unlikely he had COVID-19 in December/January unless he was hanging out in Wuhan before that.

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Perhaps we just have different ideas of what constitutes “introduction”. Maybe it’s just not that contagious.

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The ship, prison, nursing homes, etc. data show that it's clearly highly contagious. And if it wasn't that contagious, then it's even more unlikely your friend had it then.

I was in Houston in Early Feb, and was unfortunately in hotel with XFL teams doing their promotional tour, and their was a big convention in town. Everyone was coughing hacking everywhere. I told me wife I was going to be sick. I was also in two day meeting with guys from California. I was sick for a month with a flu like virus, went to doctor 3 times, took everything u can think off. It wasn’t flu but as bad. And bizarrely it left a scar on my lungs that completely perplexed the doctors as I never had any signs of pneumonia which I am very prone to get. If I didn’t have Covid-19 I am going to be stunned