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Message
re: Fauci predicts millions of coronavirus cases in US and 100,000-200,000 deaths
Posted on 4/23/20 at 9:18 am to magildachunks
Posted on 4/23/20 at 9:18 am to magildachunks
quote:
Here comes Doctor Baw to explain why this expert in the field is wrong.
He is a Dr. He writes me an Rx for xyz..i get it filled. He tells me i need to have my leg amputated - statistically speaking the average person has fewer than 2 legs. Im getting additional opinions. Docs do make mistakes....i just paid for a dr visit and drugs for my child...to have the Dr call back two days later to say ..what we diagnosed isnt the issue, your daughter can stop taking the medication. That being said...im not arguing or disagreeing with the medical prognosis of Dr Fauci. I don't agree with the statistical methodology applied.
0
Posted on 4/23/20 at 9:28 am to Antonio Moss
quote:
I'm all about a Phase I opening but you do understand that it will absolutely increases cases and deaths, right?
First off you don’t know this for a fact, but yes that’s likely. Are you proposing we go full quarantine until there’s a vaccine? How do you propose we pay for that?
Posted on 4/23/20 at 9:29 am to magildachunks
quote:Oh boy.
Here comes Doctor Baw to explain why this expert in the field is wrong.
This is a great look back.
Posted on 4/23/20 at 9:30 am to magildachunks
quote:
Here comes Doctor Baw to explain why this expert in the field is wrong
Oops.
Posted on 4/23/20 at 9:30 am to baldona
quote:
First off you don’t know this for a fact, but yes that’s likely.
It’s a pretty safe assumption.
quote:
Are you proposing we go full quarantine until there’s a vaccine?
Um, my post that you responded to:
quote:
I'm all about a Phase I opening
Posted on 4/23/20 at 9:58 am to lsupride87
So we’re trusting models now?
quote:no I’m not
the person you are inherently defending
Posted on 4/23/20 at 9:58 am to GreatLakesTiger24
quote:I dont know, are we?
So we’re trusting models now?
Posted on 4/23/20 at 9:59 am to lsupride87
I’m not
Posted on 4/23/20 at 10:26 am to Antonio Moss
quote:
I'm all about a Phase I opening but you do understand that it will absolutely increases cases and deaths, right?
My issue is the doomcaster Karens pick what they want out of the models. Initial models, (IHME and imperial college) have revised death estimates to 5% of their initial number (from 1.2 M with social distancing and mitigation measures down to 60K). It’s laughable. But here come the Karens to tell us what will definitely happen if we open up.
By the way, the area under the curves for mitigation vs do nothing is the same. Absent a vaccine or antivirals, a critical mass of the population has to get this to induce population immunity and remove the reservoir for transmission to the immune naive. That’s just the science of it.
Posted on 4/23/20 at 10:39 am to Flavius Belisarius
There will never be a vaccine for this, the virus has a 1.5 year shelf life.
Posted on 4/23/20 at 10:42 am to GreatLakesTiger24
quote:
So we’re trusting models now?
You were all about them before. I wonder what's changed...
Posted on 4/23/20 at 10:45 am to Flavius Belisarius
We had approximately 47,000 deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of yesterday. In his daily briefing, President Trump has said in at least two of the past three days that the death toll would have been much higher if we had done nothing.
So make a choice: Is the death threat of this "plague" (aka - Invisible enemy, Chinese virus, Wuhan flu, COVID-19) vastly overstated or is our Orange God always correct? He says the US death toll would have been in the millions if he hadn't taken action.
So make a choice: Is the death threat of this "plague" (aka - Invisible enemy, Chinese virus, Wuhan flu, COVID-19) vastly overstated or is our Orange God always correct? He says the US death toll would have been in the millions if he hadn't taken action.
Posted on 4/23/20 at 10:47 am to bopper50
quote:
There will never be a vaccine for this, the virus has a 1.5 year shelf life.
You may be right. We still have no vaccines for any of the viruses causing the common cold. All the more reason to get to population immunity as quickly as possible, without overwhelming the health care system, which we haven’t even come close to.
Posted on 4/23/20 at 10:53 am to White Roach
quote:
So make a choice: Is the death threat of this "plague" (aka - Invisible enemy, Chinese virus, Wuhan flu, COVID-19) vastly overstated or is our Orange God always correct? He says the US death toll would have been in the millions if he hadn't taken action
I’m a huge Trump supporter, but he’s just wrong here, trying to justify our overreaction. Although in his defense, he was in a box, the media would have hung every death on him, and the news would have broadcast from ICU’s, pinning the blame for a global pandemic on him, instead of on China where it belongs.
So I don’t blame him, but it’s clear we need to open up. Interestingly, he’s got the Democrats arguing for continued lockdowns and economic devastation.
Posted on 4/23/20 at 12:08 pm to Flavius Belisarius
quote:
Initial models, (IHME and imperial college) have revised death estimates to 5% of their initial number (from 1.2 M with social distancing and mitigation measures down to 60K). It’s laughable. But here come the Karens to tell us what will definitely happen if we open up.
That’s not true.
If Karen’s are hysterical, fearful white women, what name should we use for people that parrot false narratives?
Posted on 4/23/20 at 12:46 pm to Antonio Moss
Crazy thing is when this thread was posted, we were at about 2,000 deaths. Now, not even a full month later we have reached 48,000. That is insane to me.
It also leads me to believe that there doesn't exist a scenario where the economy goes unscathed. If we lived like as business as usual, nd let the "it's just the flu" folks have their way, then those deaths could in all likelihood be exponentially higher.That would frick up the economy as well, while still having more deaths.
The truth is, I don't think there is a true correct answer, in a way we were fricked no matter what move we made.
It also leads me to believe that there doesn't exist a scenario where the economy goes unscathed. If we lived like as business as usual, nd let the "it's just the flu" folks have their way, then those deaths could in all likelihood be exponentially higher.That would frick up the economy as well, while still having more deaths.
The truth is, I don't think there is a true correct answer, in a way we were fricked no matter what move we made.
This post was edited on 4/23/20 at 12:51 pm
Posted on 4/23/20 at 12:48 pm to QJenk
quote:
It also leads me to believe that there doesn't increase a scenario where the economy goes unscathed. If we lived like as business as usual, nd let the "it's just the flu" folks have their way, then those deaths could in all likelihood be exponentially higher.
The concern was overwhelming the system. We came dangerously close in New Orleans but luckily avoided it.
If that would have happened, we would have seen death rates at 8-10% instead of 3-4%
Posted on 4/23/20 at 1:12 pm to White Roach
I think if you take today's antibody study from New York into account there's a couple of things that we can say:
1) 14% have been infected... plus the ones that are currently asymptomatic that haven't developed the antibodies just yet... so we'll so that number is probably closer to 20%.
2) Let's be conservative and say that if New York's rate is 20%, then the country as a whole is maybe 10% (for simple math and arguments sake).
3) roughly 50,000 have died to get us to 10% immunity. If we do this 5 more times were at 50% immunity. By using 3rd grade math we can suspect that the death rate at that exact moment would also be 5 times more than it is now... so 250,000 people.
4) Social distancing, business closures... etc, etc, have no bearing on any of these numbers... it's strictly based on fatality rate... and it's nowhere near 2 million people.
1) 14% have been infected... plus the ones that are currently asymptomatic that haven't developed the antibodies just yet... so we'll so that number is probably closer to 20%.
2) Let's be conservative and say that if New York's rate is 20%, then the country as a whole is maybe 10% (for simple math and arguments sake).
3) roughly 50,000 have died to get us to 10% immunity. If we do this 5 more times were at 50% immunity. By using 3rd grade math we can suspect that the death rate at that exact moment would also be 5 times more than it is now... so 250,000 people.
4) Social distancing, business closures... etc, etc, have no bearing on any of these numbers... it's strictly based on fatality rate... and it's nowhere near 2 million people.
This post was edited on 4/23/20 at 1:13 pm
Posted on 4/23/20 at 1:31 pm to QJenk
quote:
Crazy thing is when this thread was posted, we were at about 2,000 deaths. Now, not even a full month later we have reached 48,000. That is insane to me.
It also leads me to believe that there doesn't exist a scenario where the economy goes unscathed. If we lived like as business as usual, nd let the "it's just the flu" folks have their way, then those deaths could in all likelihood be exponentially higher.That would frick up the economy as well, while still having more deaths.
The truth is, I don't think there is a true correct answer, in a way we were fricked no matter what move we made.
I dunno. I guess unchecked it could have gotten into places like the meat packing plants earlier and more extensively. That might have affected the economy in some ways.
The situation in hospitals could have looked more like third world countries, but I'm not sure how and to what extent that would have affected the economy.
Not sure what else an early heavy spike would have affected.
Posted on 4/23/20 at 1:35 pm to RB10
quote:link?
You were all about them before. I wonder what's changed...
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