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Started By
Message
re: Delta Moves On...Cleanup Begins
Posted on 10/6/20 at 10:22 am to LegendInMyMind
Posted on 10/6/20 at 10:22 am to LegendInMyMind
Just got a news blip Delta is a 4??
0
Posted on 10/6/20 at 10:22 am to LegendInMyMind
What happened to RDS and Duke being the only ones forecasting???
actual training and what not....
actual training and what not....
Posted on 10/6/20 at 10:22 am to longhorn22
Posted on 10/6/20 at 10:22 am to lsufan1971
SFMR
113 knots
(~ 130.0 mph)
Flight Level
132 knots
(~ 151.9 mph)
145630 1817N 08247W 6853 02983 9603 +179 +100 069121 132 101 004 00
145700 1816N 08246W 6779 03029 9540 +180 +103 073063 079 098 008 03
145730 1814N 08245W 6869 02906 9555 +159 +114 098027 031 060 004 03
145800 1812N 08244W 6969 02779 9544 +180 +101 134028 032 038 002 00
145830 1810N 08244W 6971 02779 9547 +182 +106 166027 032 044 009 00
145900 1809N 08243W 7029 02739 9604 +153 +146 225052 077 113 064 00
113 knots
(~ 130.0 mph)
Flight Level
132 knots
(~ 151.9 mph)
145630 1817N 08247W 6853 02983 9603 +179 +100 069121 132 101 004 00
145700 1816N 08246W 6779 03029 9540 +180 +103 073063 079 098 008 03
145730 1814N 08245W 6869 02906 9555 +159 +114 098027 031 060 004 03
145800 1812N 08244W 6969 02779 9544 +180 +101 134028 032 038 002 00
145830 1810N 08244W 6971 02779 9547 +182 +106 166027 032 044 009 00
145900 1809N 08243W 7029 02739 9604 +153 +146 225052 077 113 064 00
Posted on 10/6/20 at 10:23 am to LSU5508
quote:
Is there anything that could steer this back East or is it current location on more west? Most of the Spaghetti models have it current location or further west.
Levi indicated yesterday that going west was more likely than going east.
Posted on 10/6/20 at 10:23 am to longhorn22
quote:
I truly believe it will become a 5 at some point. It however will not make landfall as a 5 nor a 4...
Thanks
We were all waiting for this analysis
Posted on 10/6/20 at 10:23 am to slackster
Good thing we have the mighty Mississippi pushing this thing to Texas!
Posted on 10/6/20 at 10:23 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
We need to pay attention to the "M" for a different reason other that shifts. Keep an eye on how long it stays a major hurricane and how close it gets to coast before the whatever weakening there will be starts happening. That matters a whole lot at this point.
I pointed this out yesterday. The NHC kept pushing the M farther north. Initially the weakening from a major hurricane to a cat 2 hurricane started.south of longitude 25, but now it’s much closer to the coast and a major north of 26.
Posted on 10/6/20 at 10:24 am to tke857
hurricane force winds only extend 20 miles for the eye, damn thats crazy
Posted on 10/6/20 at 10:24 am to tke857
Is this saying it will hit LA as a Cat 3?
Posted on 10/6/20 at 10:24 am to longhorn22
quote:
truly believe it will become a 5 at some point. It however will not make landfall as a 5 nor a 4...
It’s going to smack Mexico as a 4 at a minimum.
The US , on the other hand, looks closer to a high end cat 2 for now.
Posted on 10/6/20 at 10:25 am to longhorn22
Damn. Just got pushed to a 4. I hope it doesn't keep the current track.
Posted on 10/6/20 at 10:25 am to DomincDecoco
quote:
What happened to RDS and Duke being the only ones forecasting???
actual training and what not....
You new to these threads? This is how they always go. Its a cycle...
Valid info, fighting, comic relief, valid info, complete BS, fighting and repeat....
This post was edited on 10/6/20 at 10:26 am
Posted on 10/6/20 at 10:25 am to slackster
Wow Cat 4 now. Aimed directly at Cancun and could possibly reach Cat 5 intensity by time it makes landfall tomorrow 
Posted on 10/6/20 at 10:25 am to tiger91
quote:
So VT, how worried are you for this one???
I don’t worry until its 48 hours out and the cone of uncertainty is becoming more certain. It’s premature to do anything but prepare at this point
Doesn’t mean I won’t prepare, but my office is in NOLA so I’m dialed in on two fronts
Posted on 10/6/20 at 10:26 am to longhorn22
quote:
I truly believe it will become a 5 at some point. It however will not make landfall as a 5 nor a 4...
Do not get hung up on if it makes landfall as a high end major. Delta is very likely to be a weakling monster of a hurricane on its approach. A weaking Cat 4 or 5 is a huge problem. If that is the case, it will be bigger than it is now. It will have a larger eye than it does now. It will have a broader wind field than it does now. And it will be moving a whole lot of water. It takes a long time for a high end hurricane over open water to wind down. That energy (wind) will continue to move water.
Posted on 10/6/20 at 10:27 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
Dam this storm season. I’m in Metarie can’t make up my mind to leave or stay
Posted on 10/6/20 at 10:27 am to slackster
quote:
Wrong.
Gustav was bad for BR, but sustained winds never got over 55 kts. Just goes to show you how bad sustained hurricane winds actually are.
Apparently so......it was the worst storm to hit BR though.
Posted on 10/6/20 at 10:27 am to CharlesLSU
quote:
000
WTNT61 KNHC 061520
TCUAT1
Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1120 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020
...RECENTLY RECEIVED DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT DELTA HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED INTO A CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE...
Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Delta is
continuing to rapidly strengthen. The maximum winds have
increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. This makes
Delta a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale.
SUMMARY OF 1120 AM EDT...1520 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 82.7W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Brown
Posted on 10/6/20 at 10:28 am to rt3
Does anyone remember if Gustav was a slower or faster moving storm?
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