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Started By
Message
re: Delta Moves On...Cleanup Begins
Posted on 10/5/20 at 8:38 pm to LegendInMyMind
Posted on 10/5/20 at 8:38 pm to LegendInMyMind
That run would suck for lake charles
1
Posted on 10/5/20 at 8:39 pm to Midtiger farm
Not much left in Lake Charles to damage if this storm hits there. It would be the final nail in the coffin because no one would want to move back to that area after the slew of misfortune that area has had over the last twenty years.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 8:39 pm to tgrbaitn08
Posted on 10/5/20 at 8:39 pm to LegendInMyMind
frick thats a big move west
Posted on 10/5/20 at 8:40 pm to rocket31
quote:
frick thats a big move west
So then its Pensacola bound.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 8:41 pm to rocket31
quote:
frick thats a big move west
I'm thinking it could be an over correction due to the current location of Delta. It may shift back on later runs.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 8:41 pm to MrLSU
I cant be the only dumbass that needs to Google the actual conversion from the Z time to our time for the runs?
I need half this shite dumbed down to me like talking to a 4th grade kid.
About the only thing I learned about weather is that Duke and dukke are completely opposite
I need half this shite dumbed down to me like talking to a 4th grade kid.
About the only thing I learned about weather is that Duke and dukke are completely opposite
Posted on 10/5/20 at 8:42 pm to LegendInMyMind
Climatology says Vermilion Bay to mouth of River is most likely for this time of year, but there were a couple of outliers near Galveston and Cameron.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 8:42 pm to Notasnitch
quote:
About the only thing I learned about weather is that Duke and dukke are completely opposite
TD weather thread 101
Posted on 10/5/20 at 8:42 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
A weakening major hurricane at landfall is a huge threat. Pretty significant precedent has shown that.
Agreed. In was addressing the idiot who seems to think it’s absolutely going to be a major hurricane at landfall. He’s criticizing or trolling people who disagree.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 8:44 pm to Draconian Sanctions
quote:
now we have idiotcasting
Let’s make it a thing.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 8:45 pm to rds dc
quote:
Pretty straight forward early on as 92L will round the ridge into the Gulf. There is a weak ULL over Mexico that could play a role in the future track and strength.
Models show this ULL drifting NE as the ridge tries to build in over the top of 92L. The ridge and ULL will set the edge for the eventual turn N and then NE. How far west does 92L get before the ULL starts to erode the edge of the ridge?
The 12z GFS eventually gets the ULL far enough NE to turn 92L north and this allows for it to get picked up by the zonal flow over the top.
Models can struggle with the track and strength of ULLs more than other features. A faster NE track of the ULL could introduce shear over the system earlier and keep it wearker. A slower or more western track for the ULL could allow 92L to get farther west into the Gulf and provide an outflow channel for 92L aiding in strengthening.
This post from yesterday feels like it was a week ago...
Looking at the middle image above valid for 00z Thursday vs. the 18z run today valid for 00z Thursday. We can see that the ULL over Mexico is weaker but also notice that the trailing ULL over the Dominican is also weaker. This allows for a stronger ridge over the top. The model also greatly underestimated the strength of convection associated with Delta and that probably plays a role in the stronger ridge and weaker trailing ULL. The outflow from a stronger Delta essentially worked to weaken the trailing ULL, allowing for a stronger ridge over the top.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 8:45 pm to treyk89
I never said it absolutely would.
I was telling the people who were saying it absolutely WOULDN’T that they’re just wishcasting.
I was telling the people who were saying it absolutely WOULDN’T that they’re just wishcasting.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 8:47 pm to rds dc
So this is actually good news right?
Ridge building over LA keeps the bad thing away?
Ridge building over LA keeps the bad thing away?
Posted on 10/5/20 at 8:48 pm to rds dc
Rds posts in these threads the way I send messages in my family group text after reading rds’ posts
Posted on 10/5/20 at 8:48 pm to rds dc
Posted on 10/5/20 at 8:48 pm to rds dc
So that means?
Posted on 10/5/20 at 8:49 pm to Notasnitch
quote:
That run would suck for lake charles
If it holds up on the 0z run with the recon data I'll pucker up a bit.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 8:49 pm to rocket31
quote:
frick thats a big move west
Not at all. Euro has been on that tendency.
12z
18z
Euro is big time outlier and has been for a bit.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 8:50 pm to rds dc
the great thing about Duke is he dumbs this shite down for us amateurs 
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