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re: Delta Moves On...Cleanup Begins
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:45 pm to Impotent Waffle
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:45 pm to Impotent Waffle
quote:
Mane I am not here to argue with NHC or anyone but I just dont see NNW..
There's a plane dropping data collectors into the center and marking its location exactly.
It's moving NNW without a doubt.
This post was edited on 10/8/20 at 9:46 pm
3
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:46 pm to UnitedFruitCompany
Ole law and order could say contra flow, and make it so in less than an hour.
C’mon JBE, get er done!!
C’mon JBE, get er done!!
This post was edited on 10/8/20 at 9:47 pm
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:46 pm to Impotent Waffle
Track shifted 1/10 H east
This post was edited on 10/8/20 at 9:47 pm
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:46 pm to rt3
quote:
The official intensity forecast through landfall is above most of the model guidance.
Ugh...
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:47 pm to CaptainJ47
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:47 pm to Duke
quote:
There's a plane dropping data collectors into the center and marking its location exactly.
It's moving NNW without a doubt.
They are wishcasting for whatever reason. Live in LC or something maybe so its understandable
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:48 pm to tiger91
They have it gutted. Bad but not terrible. Mostly water damage. East side got the brunt of the damage. I salvaged some of the furniture they are replacing.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:48 pm to Duke
quote:
There's a plane dropping data collectors into the center and marking its location exactly.
It's moving NNW without a doubt
Which is why I said I am not here to argue......
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:49 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:
Hmmm, normally you're pretty spot on but wobbles at this point, at around 24 hours until landfall, do matter. This is precisely the point that they begin to matter. If it follows the NHC's path because it's only a wobble east or west, whatever, ok.
In the grand scheme of things, wobbles don't matter. If you're close enough that a wobble 24 hours or greater out will impact you, you should likely be evacuating regardless. This is a large windfield and potentially big time surge event. A wobble should not be determining your decision making and/or plans.
This post was edited on 10/8/20 at 9:51 pm
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:50 pm to Impotent Waffle
quote:
Mane I am not here to argue with NHC or anyone but I just dont see NNW..
I already got the math done for you straight from the plane data
quote:
assuming the 4th drop in the eye by the USAF plane is its final one
so...
1st drop of that mission... 24.6N 93.3W @ 20:23z
final drop of that mission... 25.5N 93.6W @ 01:32z
so over the last 5+ hours... the center of Delta has moved +0.9N +0.3W
it moved 0.2 degrees north for every 0.1 degree west it moved at the same time... the very definition of NNW
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:50 pm to rt3
quote:
it moved 0.2 degrees north for every 0.1 degree west it moved at the same time... the very definition of NNW
Boom
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:51 pm to rt3
Wouldn't that be .3 north for every .1 west? Lol
This post was edited on 10/8/20 at 9:53 pm
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:52 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
If you're close enough that a wobble 24 hours or greater out, you should likely be evacuating regardless.
I mean yeah, that's why the "cone" exists. But from a scientific standpoint, and a final landfall location they do matter. Of course, these systems never travel in a straight line, but we don't call it wobble watching for nothing.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:52 pm to rt3
quote:
what on earth did the NHC see in the numbers that got them to raise it to 120?
quote:
Peak flight-level winds were 120 kt, and the highest SFMR-observed surface winds were 98 kt. Using a blend of adjusted flight-level and surface wind observations, the current intensity estimate is set at 105 kt.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:52 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:
Hmmm, normally you're pretty spot on but wobbles at this point, at around 24 hours until landfall, do matter.
I said on the small scale, like how far from LC it is, they matter but it's hard to know what they'll eventually yield at this point but won't provide a dramatic shift in the big picture track.
The late wobbles really matter though because they might not be able to wobble back to the mean motion before landfall and spare people.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:52 pm to Highway_Man
Anyone know that supernovasky poster from the 2016 flood? I would think he would be in these hurricane threads. He was incredibly helpful in that 2016 flood thread.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:53 pm to Duke
Gotcha, baw.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:53 pm to Impotent Waffle
quote:
Mane I am not here to argue with NHC or anyone but I just dont see NNW..
NHC uses what they call the "storm best track" which basically is an educated smoothing of the wobbles we watch as laymen.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:53 pm to Highway_Man
Math is obviously harder for some people. Was he the same guy who started the calculus thread earlier?
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:54 pm to AmosMosesAndTwins
quote:
In my case, I wanted to be somewhere where I can get back quickly to surmise damage and return in the same day.
Did you go to Houston? I can't keep track.
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