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Started By
Message
re: Delta Moves On...Cleanup Begins
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:39 pm to The Dudes Rug
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:39 pm to The Dudes Rug
quote:
Windy?
7mph out the ENE in Dutchtown
2
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:39 pm to rt3
what on earth did the NHC see in the numbers that got them to raise it to 120?
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:40 pm to tiger91
I think everybody got caught off guard with the number of people that left this time, even the Mayor of LC said we didn't see the gridlock heading out for Laura, more people left this time around, Calcasieu is a ghost parish right now
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:40 pm to lsumailman61
Any electricity yet for y’all? How are the oysters?
And how was the Sagrera’s house? I didn’t have the heart to ask.
And how was the Sagrera’s house? I didn’t have the heart to ask.
This post was edited on 10/8/20 at 9:41 pm
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:40 pm to slackster
quote:
NHC posting updates from way out in the future.
someone in Miami was at the end of their shift and wanted to get home early
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:41 pm to rt3
quote:
Moving: NNW
Mane I am not here to argue with NHC or anyone but I just dont see NNW..
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:41 pm to rt3
quote:
what on earth did the NHC see in the numbers that got them to raise it to 120?
Ah shite, what was the highest mph you posted from the plane data? I can't go back through all these pages.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:41 pm to pistolpete23
10pm track is east
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:42 pm to Impotent Waffle
quote:
Mane I am not here to argue with NHC or anyone but I just dont see NNW..
Thats why they get paid the big bucks and you post on the OT
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:42 pm to slackster
quote:
It's so ingrained in south-central Louisianians to go west that they don't even consider the fact that Hammond would have been plenty good enough.
Granted, lots of us have family in the Houston area, but I'm not sitting in 4 hours of traffic to save $250.
In my case, I wanted to be somewhere where I can get back quickly to surmise damage and return in the same day.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:43 pm to tiger91
Oysters are great with all this Salt water. Power was back on after 8 days. Way sooner than anticipated.
We did have 2 cages float over Ft Morgan Rd but our neighbor saved the oysters and put them back in the bay.
We did have 2 cages float over Ft Morgan Rd but our neighbor saved the oysters and put them back in the bay.
This post was edited on 10/8/20 at 9:45 pm
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:43 pm to t00f
I projected such and got downvoted to hell
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:43 pm to lsumailman61
Sageras faired ok? The sons, K and C and neighbors of mine.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:44 pm to t00f
Looks pretty unchanged
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:44 pm to CaptainJ47
frick em, its true.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:44 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
000
WTNT41 KNHC 090237
TCDAT1
Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020
Reports from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
investigating Delta indicate that the hurricane strengthened a
little more this evening. Peak flight-level winds were 120 kt, and
the highest SFMR-observed surface winds were 98 kt. Using a blend
of adjusted flight-level and surface wind observations, the current
intensity estimate is set at 105 kt. The eye became obscured on
satellite images a couple of hours ago, but recently it has become
apparent again. Delta could intensify a little more within the next
6 hours or so. Thereafter, sharply decreasing oceanic heat content,
significantly increasing west-southwesterly shear, and drier
mid-level air should cause weakening. The official intensity
forecast through landfall is above most of the model guidance.
However, even 24-hour tropical cyclone intensity forecasts are
still subject to an uncertainty of 1 Saffir-Simpson category, so
one should not focus on the exact official landfall intensity
forecast. Moreover, even if Delta weakens some, it will still have
serious storm surge impacts due to its large size.
Aircraft and satellite center fixes show that the hurricane is
gradually turning toward the right. The motion is now
north-northwestward, or 340/10 kt. Delta should turn northward on
Friday as it moves on the western side of a mid-tropospheric high
pressure area. Later on Friday, a 500-mb shortwave trough over the
southern United States is likely to cause the tropical cyclone to
turn north-northeastward and cross the northern Gulf of Mexico
coast. Delta should then move northeastward on the eastern side of
the trough over the southeastern United States for the next day or
two before dissipating near Kentucky. The official track forecast
is very close to the previous NHC track, and in very good agreement
with the various consensus track predictions.
Key Messages:
1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected near and east of where
Delta makes landfall Friday, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect
from High Island, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. The highest
inundation of 7 to 11 feet is expected somewhere between Rockefeller
Wildlife Refuge and Morgan City, Louisiana. Residents in the warning
area should promptly follow advice given by local officials. The
storm surge risk remains high despite the forecast decrease in
intensity before landfall since Delta is a relatively large
hurricane.
2. Hurricane-force winds are expected Friday afternoon and evening
somewhere within the Hurricane Warning area between High Island,
Texas, and Morgan City, Louisiana. Hurricane force winds will also
spread inland across portions of southern Louisiana near the path of
Deltas center Friday evening and Friday night.
3. Heavy rainfall will lead to significant flash flooding and minor
to major river flooding in parts of Louisiana Friday and Saturday.
Additional flooding is expected across portions of the central Gulf
Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0300Z 25.7N 93.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 27.4N 93.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 29.8N 93.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
36H 10/1200Z 32.0N 91.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/0000Z 33.5N 90.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/1200Z 34.9N 88.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0000Z 36.5N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Berg
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:44 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Thats why they get paid the big bucks and you post on the OT
Ooooo ya got me....
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:44 pm to Duke
quote:
But we don't know what these wobbles will really yield. The big picture is sticking near the NHC path. Small picture though, yeah will matter for you in LC. Again, don't know if these moves will matter for you yet.
Tomorrow?
Yeah they'll fricking matter.
Hmmm, normally you're pretty spot on but wobbles at this point, at around 24 hours until landfall, do matter. This is precisely the point that they begin to matter. If it follows the NHC's path because it's only a wobble east or west, whatever, ok.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:44 pm to AmosMosesAndTwins
quote:
In my case, I wanted to be somewhere where I can get back quickly to surmise damage and return in the same day.
If I didn't have the kiddos I'd have taken my trailer/toy hauler and my generator and just camped west somewhere at a truck stop and hauled arse back as soon as the storm was done.
Kids are too small to leave with the wife while she's away evacd.
My dad and sister are still trying to get here where we are staying by the airport in Houston.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 9:45 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Ah shite, what was the highest mph you posted from the plane data? I can't go back through all these pages.
it's in the official discussion
flight level was 120 kts & SFMR was 98 kts
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