re: Delta Moves On...Cleanup Begins

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The storm will be way too inland for a cat 2 storm 120 hours from now. The range of intensity models from the SHIP to the CTCI is a lot more realistic.

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You'd normally be correct, but Delta will be hauling arse and wind field degradation wont be nearly as quick.

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Wondering why global models don't seem to be aware of #Delta's current intensity? Tomer does an awesome job explaining. The storm is too small to be properly "seen" by global models with large grid spacing. This is a case where it's *much* better to stick to HWRF/HMON!


HWRF and HMON have two of the more eastward tracks on the latest ensemble, shown above

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I'm not sure that is as big of an issue once the system gets into the Gulf as land interaction and EWRC will cause the storm to get larger. This is why we are seeing more realistic depictions of the system in the Gulf. Ultimately, the only global with the resolution to compete with the hi-res hurricane models is the Euro but it's done a poor job this season. Also, ensembles are run at a lower resolution and even less useful for intensity.

Ultimately, globals aren't great for intensity but they are usually close enough with the vertical structure to determine the primary drivers for steering. The 12z runs see a favorable environment for strengthening in the Gulf but there has been little change in the steering setup.

Do fast moving hurricanes have more storm surge than the slower moving ones relative to their strength? Or is it a combo of size? Or is this one of those it depends questions like most. Sorry for being curious and dumb

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...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE DELTA HEADING
TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND EXTREME
WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...18.9N 84.1W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

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Bumped up a bit.

DAT GOTT DANG ROB PERILLO

Keep on trucking west. All the way past LC.

I'd like to hear your expert evaluation of the "EEMN" projected path in the diagram below...

Steve Caparotta, Ph.D.
@SteveWAFB
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5m
JUST IN: 4 PM update on #Delta shows max winds now up to 145 mph. Forecast track nudged a little westward at landfall in Louisiana. South Louisiana residents should be prepared for potential Cat 2/3 hurricane landfall by late Friday. #L

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That isn’t a new track. That’s the 2pm one

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Check the first page, it auto updates

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Check the first page, it auto updates

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