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Message
Covid 'wave' actually just a ripple
Posted on 6/13/22 at 10:59 pm
Posted on 6/13/22 at 10:59 pm
Yeah, I know, some of you don't want to read anything about covid; if so, stop reading now.
Anyway: more than a few of the media talking heads and 'professional' Chicken Littles want to harp about us being in a covid wave. See, e.g., Yahoo: COVID reinfections set to spike in U.S. as new variants evade immunity.
But the Louisiana data show that we're now as far into a 'wave' as any wave has ever gone, and this one is only a ripple. Our covid hospitalization rate (304 today) is only 49% of the pandemic median (623) and 10% of the pandemic maximum (3022 on August 18, 2021); and our weekly running deaths are by any reasonable comparison low (16 for a week through today versus a pandemic median of 104 and a maximum of 535 for the week through September 8, 2021).
As for how far into the wave are we, if we go by the original methodology of running week new diagnoses--and the LDHH changed how they report new diagnoses on January 19, 2022--the we see that, after the initial wild ride in March and April 2020, the second wave crested in 58 days (May 29 to July 26, 2020), the third wave crested in 70 days (October 29, 2020 to January 7, 2021), the fourth wave crested in 48 days (November 26, 2021 to January 13, 2022), and we're now 71 days into this wave (from the low point on April 3, 2022). So this 'wave' running much longer / rising much higher seems kind of unlikely.
So by all means you do you with the precautions of your choice--or not. But going into the 'It's a wave!" freak-out mode is hard to justify based on the Louisiana data.
Anyway: more than a few of the media talking heads and 'professional' Chicken Littles want to harp about us being in a covid wave. See, e.g., Yahoo: COVID reinfections set to spike in U.S. as new variants evade immunity.
But the Louisiana data show that we're now as far into a 'wave' as any wave has ever gone, and this one is only a ripple. Our covid hospitalization rate (304 today) is only 49% of the pandemic median (623) and 10% of the pandemic maximum (3022 on August 18, 2021); and our weekly running deaths are by any reasonable comparison low (16 for a week through today versus a pandemic median of 104 and a maximum of 535 for the week through September 8, 2021).
As for how far into the wave are we, if we go by the original methodology of running week new diagnoses--and the LDHH changed how they report new diagnoses on January 19, 2022--the we see that, after the initial wild ride in March and April 2020, the second wave crested in 58 days (May 29 to July 26, 2020), the third wave crested in 70 days (October 29, 2020 to January 7, 2021), the fourth wave crested in 48 days (November 26, 2021 to January 13, 2022), and we're now 71 days into this wave (from the low point on April 3, 2022). So this 'wave' running much longer / rising much higher seems kind of unlikely.
So by all means you do you with the precautions of your choice--or not. But going into the 'It's a wave!" freak-out mode is hard to justify based on the Louisiana data.
17
Posted on 6/13/22 at 11:09 pm to NOLATiger163
It definitely is going around but people aren't running out and waiting in 2 hours long lines to get tested anymore. Everybody got their free China test at home.
Posted on 6/13/22 at 11:11 pm to NOLATiger163
We need to hurry and get those under 5 stabbed
Posted on 6/13/22 at 11:41 pm to NOLATiger163
I swear I’ve known more people who’ve gotten it this “wave” than all of the others combined. And not a single one said it was anything worse than a cold lasting a couple of days.
Posted on 6/13/22 at 11:58 pm to Big Jim Slade
I was at an event where I know of at least 50 people got it. I am one of them and am on day 3. Not sure how I’ve survived but the box of tissues and mucinex have certainly taken a hit.
Posted on 6/14/22 at 12:05 am to NOLATiger163
Working out of state and currently have it. Company required I get tested due to being exposed and I popped positive this morning. This would make it day 3 since exposure, and its been pretty mild. Stuffy nose, and a little tired. Would not have thought this was Covid honestly and just a man cold.
Posted on 6/14/22 at 8:22 am to NOLATiger163
I have noted that that 60% of deaths are of vaxxed. I have also noted that the least vaxxed area of Louisiana has been hit the least in this ripple. Kudos to the people of SW LA for being smarter than the rest, at least the more than 60% who are unvaxxed.
Posted on 6/14/22 at 8:23 am to Big Jim Slade
Just getting over 3 days of shiits, so maybe I had it
Posted on 6/14/22 at 8:24 am to NOLATiger163
I have had Covid somewhere in the 2-4 range. I cannot tell you how little I care about Covid, currently.
I did test negative 4 days ago so there's that, too.
I did test negative 4 days ago so there's that, too.
Posted on 6/14/22 at 8:25 am to CitizenK
quote:
Kudos to the people of SW LA for being smarter than the rest,
Due to Laura (and, admittedly culture), SWLA did have a huge surge (that made national news) but, as expected, left a population of people who have all pretty much had it so the threats are minimized due to natural antibodies to fight reinfections.
Posted on 6/14/22 at 8:26 am to CitizenK
quote:
I have noted that that 60% of deaths are of vaxxed.
That's over one week of data.
Posted on 6/14/22 at 8:27 am to Big Jim Slade
quote:
swear I’ve known more people who’ve gotten it this “wave” than all of the others combined. And not a single one said it was anything worse than a cold lasting a couple of days.
I don't know a single person to have had covid in the past several months. I still don't know anyone who has died from it since it started...I know people have died, but no one that I know.
Posted on 6/14/22 at 8:27 am to SlowFlowPro
I'm probably positive right now but I'm not taking a test. The wife has it and is in bed. She has typical cold symptoms and aches. I'm congested and that's about it.
Posted on 6/14/22 at 8:28 am to 3deadtrolls
I have it now too. Sore throat, tired, and achy. I don’t feel good by any means, but it’s not as bad as the flu.
Posted on 6/14/22 at 9:09 am to Jsand43
quote:
It definitely is going around but people aren't running out and waiting in 2 hours long lines to get tested anymore. Everybody got their free China test at home.
Because the narrative is crumbling.
Posted on 6/14/22 at 10:06 am to NOLATiger163
My work is making us dirty unvaxxed start testing twice weekly again. Haha.
Posted on 6/14/22 at 10:08 am to NOLATiger163
Oh wait till a month before mid terms. It’ll be the biggest made up wave yet. They won’t let go of that free ride of votes.
Posted on 6/14/22 at 10:11 am to Steadyhands
quote:
I still don't know anyone who has died from it since it started..
I personally know one. Not sure what her details were at the time of death.
I have been all around the country, big ball games, big crowds, lots of airplanes and never got it, and I'm immune compromised.
Posted on 6/14/22 at 10:13 am to SlowFlowPro
I don't really know many people who even bothering testing anymore. Feel sick, stay/work at home for a few days and go back in when you feel better.
This post was edited on 6/14/22 at 10:14 am
Posted on 6/14/22 at 10:15 am to Jsand43
quote:
It definitely is going around but people aren't running out and waiting in 2 hours long lines to get tested anymore. Everybody got their free China test at home.
Trump was right. Stop getting tested and it’ll go away.
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