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Message
re: COVID-19 nugget from 3/27 that is holding up rather well
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:55 pm to Salmon
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:55 pm to Salmon
Limited isolations works to slow the spread, moving the peak “down” but it also pushes the peak down the road. I’m saying that if we had not isolated as much or at all outside of being more strict with washing and staying home when sick, it would have been over sooner. Isolation has extended the timing of the peak; it doesn’t end this faster. It’ll be a really slow decline and right as it’s coming down, school starts and we will get people freaking out again because here comes your next big peak. That’s with my assumption that things continue to stay somewhat closed until July. I can’t see how things all open up at once come May or June.
We know this is keeping numbers lower. But without a way to stop it, spread continues and a true decline is still down the road and not behind us. Had we not done the isolation, at the possible expense of some hospitals, this could be ending by now. No way we will know, of course.
We know this is keeping numbers lower. But without a way to stop it, spread continues and a true decline is still down the road and not behind us. Had we not done the isolation, at the possible expense of some hospitals, this could be ending by now. No way we will know, of course.
1
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:56 pm to Salmon
I read your post wrong. I didn’t sleep well last night. 
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:56 pm to SabiDojo
Glad y’all are safe. 
ILY
ILY
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:58 pm to ell_13
Ily
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:59 pm to ell_13
Isolation does stop the virus. You would never catch the virus if you isolated yourself. Of course you can only do this so long.
But how many really went into isolation? Hardly anybody so it’s really a non factor.
Most limited contact, and practiced social distancing.
But how many really went into isolation? Hardly anybody so it’s really a non factor.
Most limited contact, and practiced social distancing.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:00 pm to ell_13
quote:
Limited isolations works to slow the spread, moving the peak “down” but it also pushes the peak down the road. I’m saying that if we had not isolated as much or at all outside of being more strict with washing and staying home when sick, it would have been over sooner. Isolation has extended the timing of the peak; it doesn’t end this faster.
Ugh. You are completely ignoring the other half of the equation though.
You may not think it would have swamped healthcare systems, but the people making the decisions thought it could. That was part of the equation. You can't just ignore it.
quote:
That’s with my assumption that things continue to stay somewhat closed until July. I can’t see how things all open up at once come May or June.
Only retards think we will all "open up at once" come May.
quote:
But without a way to stop it, spread continues and a true decline is still down the road and not behind us. Had we not done the isolation, at the possible expense of some hospitals, this could be ending by now. No way we will know, of course.
I like how you casually throw out the "at the expense of some hospitals"
That was a fairly large factor in all of this.
The fact is that the people saying to stay home and this will end sooner are correct.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:02 pm to doubleb
Yeah, true isolation isn’t happening. If those staying in their homes completely aren’t totally isolating is they get things delivered.
Social distancing is real though. My son has gone from being exposed to 500 kids 5 days a week to just one or two kids every week or so. I’m probably about the same with as much as I’ve been golfing.
Social distancing is real though. My son has gone from being exposed to 500 kids 5 days a week to just one or two kids every week or so. I’m probably about the same with as much as I’ve been golfing.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:08 pm to Salmon
quote:We are more on the same page than you think. I’m not saying the measures taken didn’t work or the purpose and goal was to shorten this. I’m just saying that the people who believe isolation/stay home is simply meant to get things back to normal faster are wrong.
You may not think it would have swamped healthcare systems, but the people making the decisions thought it could. That was part of the equation. You can't just ignore it.
quote:Again, I think we are closer to agreeing than you think.
I like how you casually throw out the "at the expense of some hospitals"
I’m all for protecting the hospitals and I wasn’t advocating for sacrificing “some” just to end this sooner. I was just saying that’s what would have likely happened. Some would have struggled. How many, who knows? The extent? Who knows. My idea was always simply to quarantine the old and immune compromised. And just tell the rest of us to wash often and stay home when sick. Just pound that point home.
quote:Okay, to be clear, sooner than what?
The fact is that the people saying to stay home and this will end sooner are correct.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:12 pm to ell_13
quote:
Yeah, true isolation isn’t happening. If those staying in their homes completely aren’t totally isolating is they get things delivered.
Social distancing is real though. My son has gone from being exposed to 500 kids 5 days a week to just one or two kids every week or so. I’m probably about the same with as much as I’ve been golfing.
Exactly. Isolation is not happening except in rare circumstances. What we have done has obviously limited the spread. The question is what will happen if we start mixing again, and what would happen if we do not restart things.
I’m guessing there’s a sweet spot between the two, but each locale probably has a different one.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:12 pm to ell_13
quote:
I’m just saying that the people who believe isolation/stay home is simply meant to get things back to normal faster are wrong.
well at the moment, with the approach that we are currently using, they are correct
quote:
Okay, to be clear, sooner than what?
well I think we are currently on a good projection to begin loosening restrictions come May 1st (or that Monday May 4th)
My main worry is we have a small secondary spike within the next 2 weeks which causes everyone to freak out and JBE extends the restrictions
this is why I want everyone to just stay home right now so we don't have another spike this early
I want this shite to end and I don't trust our reactionary government
I think it will be immensely more difficult to put people back on the order once its lifted than it would be to just extend it
This post was edited on 4/13/20 at 2:13 pm
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:14 pm to Salmon
quote:
well I think we are currently on a good projection to begin loosening restrictions come May 1st (or that Monday May 4th)
My main worry is we have a small secondary spike within the next 2 weeks which causing everyone to freak out and JBE extends the restrictions
be prepared to see this extended until May 31st....and Im going to be ok with that....this needs to end but I dont want to rush anything and have to shut down again in August.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:16 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:
be prepared to see this extended until May 31st....and Im going to be ok with that...
You have money saved and are getting the SBA loan to assist your business. Many aren't in as good of a position as you.
I am OK with it too but I understand why so many will not be.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:17 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:
be prepared to see this extended until May 31st.
I'm prepared fine. I'm actually enjoying my time during all of this. I don't know when I'll be able to spend this much time with my family ever again.
But that doesn't mean I don't understand the amount of people that are struggling right now.
quote:
this needs to end but I dont want to rush anything and have to shut down again in August.
I'm pretty confident we will have adequate testing and treatment schedules in place by August.
This post was edited on 4/13/20 at 2:18 pm
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:21 pm to Salmon
quote:Thats a legit worry. Any spike or new hot spot (which is bound to happen) is going to cause politicians to continue to be overly cautious.
My main worry is we have a small secondary spike within the next 2 weeks which causes everyone to freak out and JBE extends the restrictions
quote:Another fair concern considering the arms race that took place on canceling everything between mayors and governors that took place a month ago today.
I want this shite to end and I don't trust our reactionary government
I guess what I’ve been trying to say is that if anyone was saying they wanted this over quickly a month ago, they should have wanted everything to remain open. Bigger spike, but quicker and steeper end and smaller and less impactful secondary spikes. At this point, on our current path, to keep the government in check and chill, stay at home is the only path to a quicker end since we are beyond the first option.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:22 pm to stout
quote:
You have money saved and are getting the SBA loan to assist your business. Many aren't in as good of a position as you.
I am OK with it too but I understand why so many will not be.
Look I wish we could open this shite up today..but I also understand that if we do we're going to be sitting at home for 2 more months in August and September.....
My kids have got to go back to school in August...there is no other option. This economy needs to get back on track
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:22 pm to ell_13
quote:
At this point, on our current path, to keep the government in check and chill, stay at home is the only path to a quicker end since we are beyond the first option.
this is my point
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:23 pm to Salmon
quote:
I'm prepared fine. I'm actually enjoying my time during all of this. I don't know when I'll be able to spend this much time with my family ever again.
But that doesn't mean I don't understand the amount of people that are struggling right now.
quote:
this needs to end but I dont want to rush anything and have to shut down again in August.
I'm pretty confident we will have adequate testing and treatment schedules in place by August.
agreed 100%
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:25 pm to ell_13
I truly believe they will figure a way to start opening thigs up slowly and a little bit at a time.....
People that think they will just flip a switch and everything will be opened all at once are fooling themselves. It's going to take months before you see everything wide open like it was before March 15th
People that think they will just flip a switch and everything will be opened all at once are fooling themselves. It's going to take months before you see everything wide open like it was before March 15th
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:28 pm to tgrbaitn08
A slow open is sure to piss people off. Why is this business open but not mine? Why does she get to go back to work but not me? I can just imagine the FB fights over who is deemed more essential between hair dressers and massage therapists.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:30 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:
Look I wish we could open this shite up today..but I also understand that if we do we're going to be sitting at home for 2 more months in August and September.....
My kids have got to go back to school in August...there is no other option. This economy needs to get back on track
I am not disagreeing with you.
I think what many discount, including those in control, are the deaths we will see from both economic fallout and those that can't get adequate healthcare right now.
The number of people that will die from the economic fallout over time will be worse than the virus IMO. It'll be hard to even quantify it but I expect studies will be done in the future showing this is the case.
I had a cousin fighting cancer that coudln't get all the treatment she was normally getting. She would have passed anyway eventually but did this speed up her death? Who knows but MD Anderson refusing LA people didn't help her.
I have a great uncle that was having an issue with strokes before this and is now forced to "visit" his Dr via Zoom.
You can't tell me that it isn't hurting some people from getting potentially life-saving help.
In short, we're dammed if we do and dammed if don't at this point. Sort of kicking the can down the road.
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