re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***

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So 6 people are dead now in the US. I'm sure there will be more.

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Considering several of those 6 are from the same nursing home, that's not a bold statement. This damn virus is likely going to take several more just from that nursing home.

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Are they accounting for those who don't report that they have it and just get better on their own???

Wouldn't that drive the mortality rate down????

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I saw this yesterday on Reddit:

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The top virologist in Germany (partly responsible for sequencing the genome of the virus and heavily involved in many current research efforts) says that the purported CFR of 2-3% is definitely too high and not what they base their models and work on. He says that public entities (such as the German equivalent of the CDC) have to report rates and proportions based on the officially known numbers, but private researches like himself are able to 'clean' the data to get a much more realistic picture. In order to get a true idea of the CFR, they exclude all Chinese numbers (unreliable for multiple reasons, including that almost only those seeking medical care have been tested), as well as all Iranian and at least for now the Italian numbers (they are absolutely certain that in both these countries cases are vastly underreported, and the first infections inly surfaced after post-mortem examinations, when the first deaths happened, based on probably already hundreds if not thousands of cases). The much more realistic CFR is most certainly below 0.5%, he says.

Source: Interviews on NDR Podcast

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I posted what I think was the referenced podcast in one of my earlier posts but I can't verify it was I don't speak German. So, like most things on the internet, take it with a grain of salt.

I'm sure that Chinese center for disease control is putting out firm accurate numbers

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read an article that India hasn't been forthcoming with data. The US and others have actually essentially been using spies to mine data regarding the virus in INdia.

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Damn. That is interesting.

Imagine the virus hitting this:

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I'm sure that Chinese center for disease control is putting out firm accurate numbers

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Well, we're seeing that a majority of the victims in Italy and Japan are elderly and with underlying medical conditions (at least the ones I can find).

So there is some verification of the data shared by the Chinese CDC.

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That is a bit misleading because the elderly are not as overall healthy on average as the rest of the population.

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Which is exactly why it would affect them more, no?

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There are about 7400 current cases in the serious/critical category (across the world)

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Worldometers - Coronavirus
41,513
Currently Infected Patients

34,115 (82%)
in Mild Condition

7,398 (18%)
Serious or Critical

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Australian health officials are meeting today to consider additional measures to stop the spread of coronavirus, including a possible ban on large gatherings and asking people to work from home - ABC, citing sources

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Kirkland, Washington: "Some of our [27] firefighters in quarantine are demonstrating flu like symptoms."

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That we know of. Considering the vast majority of people who get it never have symptoms worse than a common cold, there is no way to verify someone didn’t bring it in earlier without knowing they had it.

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I don’t mind the ignorant. If they are intellectually honest they can often catch things that are otherwise overlooked and they have been assets and good conversation in this thread.

It’s frustrating however dealing with people who have zero knowledge of the situation, but somehow form opinions of what should happen and what is possible and what isn’t.


They have done phylogenetic trees of the virus. While there is a still open (but very rapidly closing) window of what you say to be possible, the viral substrain in Washington couldn’t have come over much earlier than Jan 15, because it has mutations in common with Chinese strains around that time. If it came earlier like you hypothesize, it wouldn’t have common mutations that emerged in China after the split.

That’s hard science, not opinion or guesswork.

They are currently tracking 4 infection lineages in the US last I heard, and they can approximate arrival by this method even if they don’t have the contact tracing of individuals mapped out.

I've actually been worried about India.

Disgusting sanitation, extremely poor cleaning habits, over a billion people, extremely stacked communities, huge airports that link all over the world, no quarantine yet.

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You realize the vast majority of healthy people who get it won’t know they had it because they just dealt with it at home like the flu?

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FIFY