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re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 2/28/20 at 10:10 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Posted on 2/28/20 at 10:10 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Do you think there is any chance it could have already been through the US (or at least the west coast) and these positive tests are remnants of a previous community infection?
2
Posted on 2/28/20 at 10:11 pm to Jon Ham
quote:
We will see reports of like 2-5 more community based cases over the next week,
I said this at 3:00 today. We’ve had 3 new community based cases reported since.
Posted on 2/28/20 at 10:11 pm to Jon Ham
Here's my question:
what is the likely profile of the person who first spread it in the community?
what is the likely profile of the person who first spread it in the community?
Posted on 2/28/20 at 10:13 pm to Jon Ham
quote:
It’s happening in several Italian towns. CBS had a medical expert guest on earlier this week who said we should be prepared for them.
How are they going to do that in S. Louisiana? Our roads are already all fricked up and everyone has two story tall pickups to roll over obstacles.
Posted on 2/28/20 at 10:13 pm to Jon Ham
quote:
The other a women who recently traveled to South Korea.
This is why containment is out the door. SK wasn't even on the radar the middle of last week. What country will be the next hot spot in 7, 10 days?
Posted on 2/28/20 at 10:15 pm to rds dc
quote:There will be community spread in every single first world nation, imo. If a nation in europe or oceania or the america's has zero cases from community spread, all the health leaders of the nation deserve awards and worldwide acclaim.
This is why containment is out the door.
Posted on 2/28/20 at 10:23 pm to slackster
quote:Every time I get on here, there are two or three more people making end of humanity/apocalypse porn predictions.
There are 151 serious cases in the rest of the damn world right now, and we're talking about overruning the US health care system.
Posted on 2/28/20 at 10:24 pm to jennBN
quote:
Do you think there is any chance it could have already been through the US (or at least the west coast) and these positive tests are remnants of a previous community infection?
Doubt it. The problems they had early on were because the test wasn’t specific enough to rule out other corona viruses.
Since it’s been corrected it’s pretty specific for COVID-19. It’s also detecting active virus particles not antibodies. Volvagia may be able to confirm this since he’s more knowledgeable about the benchwork stuff.
Posted on 2/28/20 at 10:24 pm to Scruffy
Has there been any reported increase in critical flu cases at hospitals on the west coast?
If we aren’t testing for covid19, wouldn’t cases pop up as flu cases?
If we aren’t testing for covid19, wouldn’t cases pop up as flu cases?
Posted on 2/28/20 at 10:25 pm to jennBN
quote:
Do you think there is any chance it could have already been through the US (or at least the west coast) and these positive tests are remnants of a previous community infection?
......
I know this thread is active enough, but I don’t think it’s appreciated how slow of a burn this is. This is only the first wave building momentum onto a timeline spanning months, and we are observing it through the lens of A 24H news cycle. It’s prob why we are having to deal with so many inflammatory articles: real news is taking too long to develop.
Given the probable time frames here, anyone infected would be at best be in the tail end of full blown symptomatic infection.
Additionally, as I understand the US test are genetic based as opposed to serological. No chance of a false positive from residual antibodies.
Posted on 2/28/20 at 10:25 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
america's
You didn't go to Michigan, but I digress.
First world is infected.
Posted on 2/28/20 at 10:26 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:I don’t know if there has been an increase relative to the norm, but this is a very mild flu season.
Has there been any reported increase in critical flu cases at hospitals on the west coast?
If we aren’t testing for covid19, wouldn’t cases pop up as flu cases?
Thousands of less hospitalizations and ICU admits compared to previous years.
If there was an increase in respiratory related critical care cases of unknown source, we would already know about it.
This post was edited on 2/28/20 at 10:29 pm
Posted on 2/28/20 at 10:27 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
If we aren’t testing for covid19, wouldn’t cases pop up as flu cases?
Yes. But reading those particular tea leaves would be difficult.
We are in the middle of the season. Any deviation from the pattern baseline could be normal variation of sample size, a mischaracterization of the unusually mild flu behavior, or this.
This post was edited on 2/28/20 at 10:28 pm
Posted on 2/28/20 at 10:31 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Wow, a person with the virus just wrote an op-Ed in wapo
I have the coronavirus. It isn’t that bad
That's Mr. Carl Goldman. He's been blogging his experience in isolation.
His latest blog here.
I strongly recommend you read all his entries. They're a good read.
Posted on 2/28/20 at 10:32 pm to Scruffy
quote:
If there was an increase in respiratory related critical care cases of unknown source, we would already know about it.
If they were critical and assuming a large percentage become critical...but what if the wave here just caused flu or cold symptoms. Many people don't go to the MD for those...who would have reported or caught a minor bump in expected flu cases?
Its curious that we had such a wicked fall/winter census and that so many of my coworkers were very sick this winter. Proves nothing but just a random thought. Also, there have been no conclusive tests that prove this came from the market in Wuhan...and we have a hell of a lot of travel between China and the bay area.
Posted on 2/28/20 at 10:33 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
It’s also detecting active virus particles not antibodies.
Genetic material. There is a distinction there.
You can get a positive from fragments.
I think I remember reading they were getting hits on fragmentary material in fecal matter, but no evidence of live virus or intestinal infection like with SARS.
Posted on 2/28/20 at 10:36 pm to Volvagia
That’s why I deferred to you on the microbiology. It’s been awhile 
Posted on 2/28/20 at 10:36 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
That’s not really the point.
The cases are increasing exponentially and it’s already a problem.
Bed or no bed a stiff wind was going to kill that guy soon enough. It's sad but he was in terrible shape.
Posted on 2/28/20 at 10:41 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Because that is a shitty thing for a leader to do about a virus that IS NOT dangerous for the vast majority of people.
What kind of leader tells his people to freak out?
There's a difference between "it's not fatally serious for most people" and "this is all a hoax against Trump", as he claimed in his SC rally tonight.
quote:
FWIW, both bush and Obama officials say it is perfectly normal and protocol for this type of system. It is to ensure everyone is on same page and incongruent messaging isn't relayed. Dr. Fauci already said today that he let pence know what he will say on the shows tomorrow and pence authorized every word.
I hope Pence does the right thing. The optics are terrible.
Posted on 2/28/20 at 10:43 pm to Jon Ham
quote:
I said this at 3:00 today. We’ve had 3 new community based cases reported since.
Really going out on a limb with these outlandish predictions, lemme have a go at it.
I predict tomorrow will be Saturday
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