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WaWaWeeWa
Member since Oct 2015
7833 posts
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re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
So states are adding antibody testing results to the numbers?

LINK

I’m not going to link the other Atlantic article but it says many other states are doing this as well.

How many positive tests are antibody tests?
What a fricking joke this is.


Ronaldo Burgundiaz
Arkansas Fan
Surrounded by toilet paper
Member since Jan 2012
2012 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Are they adding it to the daily counts or adding them to the total infections? The latter is mildly understandable, the former is just government doing government things.


BRIllini07
Chicago Cubs Fan
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2015
1587 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
AH Datalytics

Haven't seen this posted here. AH Datalytics has a pretty user friendly dashboard for Parish by Parish analysis.



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WaWaWeeWa
Member since Oct 2015
7833 posts
 Online 

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
No idea. The article isn’t very clear.


Glock17
Chicago Cubs Fan
Member since Oct 2007
19803 posts
 Online 

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
I think I posted about it a few weeks back, but my wife’s 97 year old pawpaw just beat Covid


heatom2
LSU Fan
At the plant, baw.
Member since Nov 2010
11718 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
quote:

I think I posted about it a few weeks back, but my wife’s 97 year old pawpaw just beat Covid


What a boss


Glock17
Chicago Cubs Fan
Member since Oct 2007
19803 posts
 Online 

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
quote:

What a boss


No doubt.. WW2 vet. Some of the last of the greatest generation


heatom2
LSU Fan
At the plant, baw.
Member since Nov 2010
11718 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
First Hitler, then Covid.


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Ronaldo Burgundiaz
Arkansas Fan
Surrounded by toilet paper
Member since Jan 2012
2012 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Colorado age stratification timeline:


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tiger91
LSU Fan
South of Lafayette
Member since Nov 2005
23860 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Amos did you see the cms guidlines for phase 2/3? Weekly testing of employees? I get it — I do. But I’m seriously thinking about retiring. My husband doesn’t care but I was trying to hold on for three years to get my last child out of college.

And no dining if they can’t be six feet apart? What about feeder tables?? I mean we literally have people refusing to eat at this point.
This post was edited on 5/21 at 9:38 pm


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tiger91
LSU Fan
South of Lafayette
Member since Nov 2005
23860 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Tiguar, bass, wawa — anyone else with thoughts on this Just dying and not coming back?? Any chance of that???

Oh and fox just said that cdc is mixing viral and antibody tests as “cases” provided I understood them correctly.


WaWaWeeWa
Member since Oct 2015
7833 posts
 Online 

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
quote:

anyone else with thoughts on this Just dying and not coming back?? Any chance of that???


I’m not sure what you are referring to.

quote:

Oh and fox just said that cdc is mixing viral and antibody tests as “cases” provided I understood them correctly.


So someone who tests positive for an antibody test is listed as a new case for that day? If so that’s incredibly stupid and the numbers are massively inflated. I mean Ochsner just tested 2,500 people for antibodies. If 9% are positive then that’s an entire days worth of positives in Louisiana right there.
This post was edited on 5/22 at 7:17 am


WaWaWeeWa
Member since Oct 2015
7833 posts
 Online 

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
CDC

quote:

the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is estimating that about a third of coronavirus infections are asymptomatic.

The CDC also says its "best estimate" is that 0.4% of people who show symptoms and have Covid-19 will die, and the agency estimates that 40% of coronavirus transmission is occurring before people feel sick.


quote:

For people age 65 and older, the CDC puts that number at 1.3%. For people 49 and under, the agency estimated that 0.05% of symptomatic people will die.


So if 1/3 of all cases are asymptomatic It means the CDC’s best guess is:

IFR is 0.26% total

0.87% over 65
0.134% 50-65
0.033% under 50


Interesting, I did not expect something like this from CDC and CNN. I wonder what information they have that changed their mind.
This post was edited on 5/22 at 7:52 am


Ronaldo Burgundiaz
Arkansas Fan
Surrounded by toilet paper
Member since Jan 2012
2012 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
quote:

anyone else with thoughts on this Just dying and not coming back?? Any chance of that???
If you believe in reincarnation you can die and come back as something else.

Just kidding, you are referring to the virus fading away. I posted a picture of the current SARS-CoV-2 on the same timeline as SARS-CoV a page or two back. The curves look similar and the SARS-CoV second wave in winter 03-04 was much smaller. So there is precedent.

ETA Here is the image I referring to:


This post was edited on 5/22 at 7:43 am


BRIllini07
Chicago Cubs Fan
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2015
1587 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Math is off WaWa

If 1/3 are asymptomatic, than 2/3 are symptomatic.

So, multiply CDC symptomatic IFR by 0.67 (or as many 6’s as you fell like using). So 0.66 and .032.


GOP_Tiger
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
6170 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Here's a new paper on a topic that we discussed earlier: the stochasticity and heterogeneity in the transmission
dynamics.

Basically, the paper argues that most people have had this idea that each person who gets COVID-19 gives it to two or three people, and they argue that this is a bad model. According to the paper, most people will transmit the virus to zero people, while a few will give it to a lot.

The implications are obvious. If there is indeed great stochasticity and heterogeneity in transmission, then the outbreak is largely driven by superspreader events that create reservoirs of virus that can repeatedly seed a community.

So, if we can repeatedly test everyone at places such as meatpacking plants, nursing homes, and prisons, then we can "cut the tail" and dramatically reduce new cases.

TLDR: it means that if we do the right things, this virus is easier to control than most models have predicted.

LINK


tiger91
LSU Fan
South of Lafayette
Member since Nov 2005
23860 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
I mean wil this virus just fade out with no resurgence and not show up again? Any chance? Didn’t SARS do that??


WaWaWeeWa
Member since Oct 2015
7833 posts
 Online 

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
quote:

Math is off WaWa


Good catch. It’s too early in the morning for math. Check my updated numbers.


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Sasquatch Smash
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2007
10066 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
quote:

I posted a picture of the current SARS-CoV-2 on the same timeline as SARS-CoV a page or two back. The curves look similar and the SARS-CoV second wave in winter 03-04 was much smaller. So there is precedent.


There a few experts out there thinking it'll just fade away, which I truly hope they're right.


That first SARS was mostly fueled by superspreaders, if I recall.

Also, I think they believe that second wave was started by a second animal-human crossover of the virus. So, the first wave and the second wave weren't directly connected.


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WaWaWeeWa
Member since Oct 2015
7833 posts
 Online 

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
quote:

I mean wil this virus just fade out with no resurgence and not show up again? Any chance? Didn’t SARS do that??


I would just be giving you pure speculation but I don’t think it comes back in any meaningful way. I think there may be localized outbreaks here and there in areas that were never affected but our treatment will be so much better by that point it will basically be a blip on the radar.


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