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Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 5/21/20 at 2:30 pm to S1C EM
Posted on 5/21/20 at 2:30 pm to S1C EM
So states are adding antibody testing results to the numbers?
LINK
I’m not going to link the other Atlantic article but it says many other states are doing this as well.
How many positive tests are antibody tests?
What a fricking joke this is.
LINK
I’m not going to link the other Atlantic article but it says many other states are doing this as well.
How many positive tests are antibody tests?
What a fricking joke this is.
2
Posted on 5/21/20 at 3:30 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Are they adding it to the daily counts or adding them to the total infections? The latter is mildly understandable, the former is just government doing government things.
Posted on 5/21/20 at 3:40 pm to WaWaWeeWa
AH Datalytics
Haven't seen this posted here. AH Datalytics has a pretty user friendly dashboard for Parish by Parish analysis.
Haven't seen this posted here. AH Datalytics has a pretty user friendly dashboard for Parish by Parish analysis.
Posted on 5/21/20 at 3:58 pm to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
No idea. The article isn’t very clear.
Posted on 5/21/20 at 6:34 pm to WaWaWeeWa
I think I posted about it a few weeks back, but my wife’s 97 year old pawpaw just beat Covid
Posted on 5/21/20 at 6:41 pm to Glock17
quote:
I think I posted about it a few weeks back, but my wife’s 97 year old pawpaw just beat Covid
What a boss
Posted on 5/21/20 at 7:44 pm to heatom2
quote:
What a boss
No doubt.. WW2 vet. Some of the last of the greatest generation
Posted on 5/21/20 at 7:48 pm to Glock17
First Hitler, then Covid.
Posted on 5/21/20 at 9:23 pm to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
Colorado age stratification timeline:
Posted on 5/21/20 at 9:32 pm to AmosMosesAndTwins
Amos did you see the cms guidlines for phase 2/3? Weekly testing of employees? I get it — I do. But I’m seriously thinking about retiring. My husband doesn’t care but I was trying to hold on for three years to get my last child out of college. 
And no dining if they can’t be six feet apart? What about feeder tables?? I mean we literally have people refusing to eat at this point.
And no dining if they can’t be six feet apart? What about feeder tables?? I mean we literally have people refusing to eat at this point.
This post was edited on 5/21/20 at 9:38 pm
Posted on 5/21/20 at 9:40 pm to tiger91
Tiguar, bass, wawa — anyone else with thoughts on this Just dying and not coming back?? Any chance of that???
Oh and fox just said that cdc is mixing viral and antibody tests as “cases” provided I understood them correctly.
Oh and fox just said that cdc is mixing viral and antibody tests as “cases” provided I understood them correctly.
Posted on 5/22/20 at 7:16 am to tiger91
quote:
anyone else with thoughts on this Just dying and not coming back?? Any chance of that???
I’m not sure what you are referring to.
quote:
Oh and fox just said that cdc is mixing viral and antibody tests as “cases” provided I understood them correctly.
So someone who tests positive for an antibody test is listed as a new case for that day? If so that’s incredibly stupid and the numbers are massively inflated. I mean Ochsner just tested 2,500 people for antibodies. If 9% are positive then that’s an entire days worth of positives in Louisiana right there.
This post was edited on 5/22/20 at 7:17 am
Posted on 5/22/20 at 7:25 am to tiger91
CDC
So if 1/3 of all cases are asymptomatic It means the CDC’s best guess is:
IFR is 0.26% total
0.87% over 65
0.134% 50-65
0.033% under 50
Interesting, I did not expect something like this from CDC and CNN. I wonder what information they have that changed their mind.
quote:
the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is estimating that about a third of coronavirus infections are asymptomatic.
The CDC also says its "best estimate" is that 0.4% of people who show symptoms and have Covid-19 will die, and the agency estimates that 40% of coronavirus transmission is occurring before people feel sick.
quote:
For people age 65 and older, the CDC puts that number at 1.3%. For people 49 and under, the agency estimated that 0.05% of symptomatic people will die.
So if 1/3 of all cases are asymptomatic It means the CDC’s best guess is:
IFR is 0.26% total
0.87% over 65
0.134% 50-65
0.033% under 50
Interesting, I did not expect something like this from CDC and CNN. I wonder what information they have that changed their mind.
This post was edited on 5/22/20 at 7:52 am
Posted on 5/22/20 at 7:39 am to tiger91
quote:If you believe in reincarnation you can die and come back as something else.
anyone else with thoughts on this Just dying and not coming back?? Any chance of that???
Just kidding, you are referring to the virus fading away. I posted a picture of the current SARS-CoV-2 on the same timeline as SARS-CoV a page or two back. The curves look similar and the SARS-CoV second wave in winter 03-04 was much smaller. So there is precedent.
ETA Here is the image I referring to:
This post was edited on 5/22/20 at 7:43 am
Posted on 5/22/20 at 7:40 am to WaWaWeeWa
Math is off WaWa
If 1/3 are asymptomatic, than 2/3 are symptomatic.
So, multiply CDC symptomatic IFR by 0.67 (or as many 6’s as you fell like using). So 0.66 and .032.
If 1/3 are asymptomatic, than 2/3 are symptomatic.
So, multiply CDC symptomatic IFR by 0.67 (or as many 6’s as you fell like using). So 0.66 and .032.
Posted on 5/22/20 at 7:44 am to WaWaWeeWa
Here's a new paper on a topic that we discussed earlier: the stochasticity and heterogeneity in the transmission
dynamics.
Basically, the paper argues that most people have had this idea that each person who gets COVID-19 gives it to two or three people, and they argue that this is a bad model. According to the paper, most people will transmit the virus to zero people, while a few will give it to a lot.
The implications are obvious. If there is indeed great stochasticity and heterogeneity in transmission, then the outbreak is largely driven by superspreader events that create reservoirs of virus that can repeatedly seed a community.
So, if we can repeatedly test everyone at places such as meatpacking plants, nursing homes, and prisons, then we can "cut the tail" and dramatically reduce new cases.
TLDR: it means that if we do the right things, this virus is easier to control than most models have predicted.
LINK
dynamics.
Basically, the paper argues that most people have had this idea that each person who gets COVID-19 gives it to two or three people, and they argue that this is a bad model. According to the paper, most people will transmit the virus to zero people, while a few will give it to a lot.
The implications are obvious. If there is indeed great stochasticity and heterogeneity in transmission, then the outbreak is largely driven by superspreader events that create reservoirs of virus that can repeatedly seed a community.
So, if we can repeatedly test everyone at places such as meatpacking plants, nursing homes, and prisons, then we can "cut the tail" and dramatically reduce new cases.
TLDR: it means that if we do the right things, this virus is easier to control than most models have predicted.
LINK
Posted on 5/22/20 at 7:45 am to WaWaWeeWa
I mean wil this virus just fade out with no resurgence and not show up again? Any chance? Didn’t SARS do that??
Posted on 5/22/20 at 7:58 am to BRIllini07
quote:
Math is off WaWa
Good catch. It’s too early in the morning for math. Check my updated numbers.
Posted on 5/22/20 at 8:08 am to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
quote:
I posted a picture of the current SARS-CoV-2 on the same timeline as SARS-CoV a page or two back. The curves look similar and the SARS-CoV second wave in winter 03-04 was much smaller. So there is precedent.
There a few experts out there thinking it'll just fade away, which I truly hope they're right.
That first SARS was mostly fueled by superspreaders, if I recall.
Also, I think they believe that second wave was started by a second animal-human crossover of the virus. So, the first wave and the second wave weren't directly connected.
Posted on 5/22/20 at 8:09 am to tiger91
quote:
I mean wil this virus just fade out with no resurgence and not show up again? Any chance? Didn’t SARS do that??
I would just be giving you pure speculation but I don’t think it comes back in any meaningful way. I think there may be localized outbreaks here and there in areas that were never affected but our treatment will be so much better by that point it will basically be a blip on the radar.
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