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WaWaWeeWa
Member since Oct 2015
7834 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
quote:

He did specify that the CDC could backfill the all-cause numbers today, but that it would be an exceptionally large backfill based on the past numbers.


I can’t figure out what he’s saying. I wish he had an example of what he’s describing.


Ronaldo Burgundiaz
Arkansas Fan
Surrounded by toilet paper
Member since Jan 2012
2012 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
quote:

Where does that 32m+ case count come from?

Weighted average of the serology studies that have been done thus far.


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Korkstand
LSU Fan
Plaquemine, LA
Member since Nov 2003
18761 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
quote:

Essentially:
May 2 - 9:
States reporting: ~12,000 coronavirus deaths.
CDC all-cause report excess deaths of ~3,000-5,000

You can't just take those numbers as is because that is misleading, you have to adjust numbers based on past history of backfilling data because death reports are not instantaneous. Also, have to take into account fewer traffic deaths due to less travel.

He did specify that the CDC could backfill the all-cause numbers today, but that it would be an exceptionally large backfill based on the past numbers.

Yes I know, I have been watching the all-cause weekly death counts closely for several weeks. I have also downloaded several years worth of historical weekly data to examine the typical lag time in death reporting.

The week ended May 9 is far too recent to accurately project the final all-cause deaths for that week. For the past month or so, weekly counts have been opening at under 30k before being backfilled to the upper 60's to low 70's (more than 100% over initial). Before that, weeks were opening around 40k before being backfilled to the mid to upper 50's (around 50% over initial). There is no precedent on which to base a projection for the week ended May 9. So, yeah, it would be "an exceptionally large backfill based on the past numbers", but that's exactly what we've seen for the past month - exceptionally large backfills as compared to the past.


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Korkstand
LSU Fan
Plaquemine, LA
Member since Nov 2003
18761 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
quote:

quote:

He did specify that the CDC could backfill the all-cause numbers today, but that it would be an exceptionally large backfill based on the past numbers.
I can’t figure out what he’s saying. I wish he had an example of what he’s describing.
I think I know what he's talking about, because I noticed the same thing. It looks like at some point a couple months ago, there might have been a shift in the day of the week that the CDC cut off their weekly counts. I say this because the data that was release for week 13 only had data up to week 12, and the week 14 release only had data up to week 13. In other words, the data was a week behind, and as a result the initial counts for those weeks were high. Ex. In week 13, week 12 deaths were reported at 40,002 and there was no data for week 13. In week 14, week 13 deaths were reported at 44,402 and there was no data for week 14. But then in week 15, they "caught up" and there was actual data for week 15, and it was very low at 27,688.

So then, as the data has been backfilled, week 13 deaths now stand at 60,196 (a 36% increase over initial), whereas week 15 deaths now stand at 73,581 (a 166% increase over initial). Also week 16 opened at 28,374 and it is now up to 69,761 (a 145% increase over initial).

So yes, during the outbreak, the backfilled data has been exceptionally large as compared to the past. I don't now why this guy would be surprised if the most recent week turns out to be any different.
This post was edited on 5/22 at 3:15 pm


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200MPHCOBRA
LSU Fan
Metairie
Member since Nov 2016
213 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
There is multiple front line doctors touting its success when used with zinc and a z pack used early in the infection, I'm going with them.


Tiguar
Auburn Fan
Alabama
Member since Mar 2012
28137 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***


Boomdaddy65201
Missouri Fan
BoCoMo
Member since Mar 2020
31 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
The other day I simply stated that everything you put in your body can have adverse effects(read the back of an ibuprofen bottle) the major concern w/ HCQ is the development of a heart arrhythmia, but it’s been in use for so long they know that’s an average of 1 in 10,000. If you take HBP meds you know the drill, an EKG is standard during your 6 month or yearly and especially if your changing HBP meds. Interesting enough, it was just announced today(5/19) that Washington University(STL) one of the best med schools in the country was starting a clinical study of 30,000 dr.’s, nurses, front line personnel and responders on a regimen of HCQ + Z-pack and other combos.
LINK Wash U set to begin HCQ study
Here was just one of the atypical responses from one of the preeminent know it all’s of the OT(w/ multiple up-votes):
quote:

Posted by Corkfather on 5/19/20 at 10:07 pm to Baldy There’s absolutely no evidence that hydroxychloroquine has any prophylactic value as far as the virus is concerned, and of all the people that should be experimenting on themselves, basically doing their own anecdotal trial, the 73 year old POTUS is probably the last person on Earth that should be doing it. Not to mention the clinical trial for use of the drug as a treatment was a complete failure. I personally think he’s doing it because he talked it up so much and it didn’t work, and now he’s reaching for anything to give himself some credibility as far as the drug’s effectiveness and trying to save face. Also, the entire reason hydroxychloroquine was suggested as a treatment in the first place is because it allows zinc to enter cells, which it can’t do on its own, and zinc stops the spread of the virus in the cell. In short, taking hydroxychloroquine without taking zinc is basically taking it just to take it; without the zinc there is no benefit.

LINK Everything & every study re: HCQ + Z-pack, zinc, etc.


WaWaWeeWa
Member since Oct 2015
7834 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
So after all the shite that the Santa Clara antibody study got, the CDC quietly releases their best estimate of IFR and it’s within 0.1% of the Santa Clara estimate. I don’t see the media and all the great scientists commenting on that now.

I wonder what buckeyevol thinks about this
This post was edited on 5/23 at 9:49 am


Scruffy
USA Fan
Member since Jul 2011
62708 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
quote:

So after all the shite that the Santa Clara antibody study got, the CDC quietly releases their best estimate of IFR and it’s within 0.1% of the Santa Clara estimate. I don’t see the media and all the great scientists commenting on that now.
This became political the minute it spread here.


WaWaWeeWa
Member since Oct 2015
7834 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Check out the latest paper in Cell

quote:

Importantly, we detected SARS-CoV-2-reactive CD4+ T cells in ~40-60% of unexposed individuals, suggesting cross-reactive T cell recognition between circulating ‘common cold’ coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2.



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tiger91
LSU Fan
South of Lafayette
Member since Nov 2005
23861 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Wawa, laymen’s terms?? I’m assuming this is supporting that there was an overreaction to this??


WaWaWeeWa
Member since Oct 2015
7834 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
I don’t want to say that yet but this means that there is some cross reactivity to previous coronaviruses.

People that were never infected with COVID have cells in their body that are responding to fight COVID. Probably because of previous infections with other similar viruses.

The original idea that no one has immunity because it’s a novel virus may not be 100% correct. If this is true it would dramatically effect every model.

I have a thread on it that was just bumped on the OT. This topic changed my thinking on this virus completely. I honestly think this is why we never say the pandemic go full exponential growth anywhere and why every curve looks almost the same. We would have to assume we all did social distancing exactly the same OR we could consider the fact that there was a certain level of immunity already in the population and the virus is naturally reaching herd immunity already.


Tiguar
Auburn Fan
Alabama
Member since Mar 2012
28137 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
It would be one component factoring in why most of the original models were flat wrong


WaWaWeeWa
Member since Oct 2015
7834 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
I’m actually going through a bunch of papers now that have studied T cell response in SARS 1. It’s clearly protective. They also demonstrated that with H1N1 the previous T cell immunity resulted in asymptomatic cases and people who didn’t shed any virus because of T cell immunity.

They found that previous T cell immunity was directly correlated with severity of disease.

It is proven that T cell function decreases dramatically with age. Is this why we see such a strong correlation between age and mortality?

That’s my best guess.


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WaWaWeeWa
Member since Oct 2015
7834 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
I think people are losing their sense of smell and taste while having mild cases because the T cells are wiping out the virus (and some normal taste and smell cells) in the pharynx and throat before it can seriously infect the lungs.

T cells don’t bind virus like an antibody they can kill virus infected cells. (I know you know this Tiguar, just posting for others)

Just a thought
This post was edited on 5/23 at 11:05 am


Ronaldo Burgundiaz
Arkansas Fan
Surrounded by toilet paper
Member since Jan 2012
2012 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
In a few short weeks we went from "We may have to lock down for 18 months to await a vaccine"

To:

"We may not be able to find enough virus to run vaccine trials"

Incredible.

LINK


WaWaWeeWa
Member since Oct 2015
7834 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
The only missing piece of the puzzle for me is do asymptomatic cases or cases with previous T cell immunity develop antibodies.

If they don’t develop antibodies at a high rate or a detectable level then the antibody tests are way off in showing how close to herd immunity we are.



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Tiguar
Auburn Fan
Alabama
Member since Mar 2012
28137 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
The connection between T cells and taste is interesting


WaWaWeeWa
Member since Oct 2015
7834 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
I’ve read that the loss of taste and smell is highly correlated with mild cases. The nose and throat is the site of primary infection and if you have previous T cell Immunity that’s where it’s going to fight the virus first. Destroying cells in those areas as a side effect and resulting in the loss taste and smell.

Well at least that’s my hypothesis
This post was edited on 5/23 at 11:25 am


Ronaldo Burgundiaz
Arkansas Fan
Surrounded by toilet paper
Member since Jan 2012
2012 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
That reminds me that my wife had a low grade fever with cough and she complained about loss of taste the first weekend in February. I think I'll push her to get antibody tested this week.


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