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Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 5/13/20 at 10:36 am to Sasquatch Smash
Posted on 5/13/20 at 10:36 am to Sasquatch Smash
Nothing goes straight up or down.
There are ALWAYS waves.
There are ALWAYS waves.
1
Posted on 5/13/20 at 10:40 am to Bullfrog
quote:
Nothing goes straight up or down.
There are ALWAYS waves.
Right...but the talk of the "deadly second wave" is always looking back at what happened with the Spanish Flu.
What if this is the "deadly second wave"?
Posted on 5/13/20 at 10:43 am to Sasquatch Smash
The second wave of the Spanish flu was a mutated strain combined with the ending of a war and a ton of people moving around the world. It’s the dumbest comparison simply meant to cause fear to keep people in line.
Posted on 5/13/20 at 10:44 am to MusclesofBrussels
Well his understanding and ability to explain complex statistical modeling is about the only reason to continue even checking this thread.
Of course predictions change as new data come in but I think he has been consistent in acknowledging that fact.
Of course predictions change as new data come in but I think he has been consistent in acknowledging that fact.
Posted on 5/13/20 at 10:50 am to Sasquatch Smash
quote:Maybe it’s not.
What if this is the "deadly second wave"?
I have read this virus is very stable, structurally which lowers the chance of mutation and increases the chance of a vaccination sooner rather than later. It’s stability will be its downfall.
Relax. It’s going to be ok (for damn near everyone) IMHO.
This post was edited on 5/13/20 at 10:51 am
Posted on 5/13/20 at 10:53 am to ell_13
quote:
The second wave of the Spanish flu was a mutated strain combined with the ending of a war and a ton of people moving around the world. It’s the dumbest comparison simply meant to cause fear to keep people in line.
No argument there. I posted that information earlier in this thread, actually.
Posted on 5/13/20 at 10:59 am to Bullfrog
quote:
Maybe it’s not.
No shite.
quote:
I have read this virus is very stable, structurally which lowers the chance of mutation and increases the chance of a vaccination sooner rather than later. It’s stability will be its downfall.
I'm not holding my breath for the first ever, successful human coronavirus vaccine to be the savior.
quote:
elax. It’s going to be ok (for damn near everyone) IMHO.
I'm far more relaxed than I have been.
Just rhetorical, thought questions.
This post was edited on 5/13/20 at 11:00 am
Posted on 5/13/20 at 11:03 am to lsupride87
quote:
However, we have actually seen less acute organ inflammatory emergencies and less presentations of Kawasaki in our hospitals than normal since the outbreak.....
quote:I’ve literally said that I would expect
But buckeye vol gonna buckeye vol
them to be down, along with illnesses, hospitalizations, complications, fatalities, etc. for those under 18.
And I also said that people don’t seem to realize just how disproportionately less significant the severity and mortality of the flu is for those under 18 compared to adults, that even a significant rise in severity (say 7-8 times) with COVID-19 would still result in something disproportionately less severe and less fatal than the flu for adults. And it would take a lot of infections for it to be very noticeable overall.
Posted on 5/13/20 at 11:50 am to Sasquatch Smash
To be fair, there actually is a MERS vaccine that seems like it would work based on animal studies but the virus really disappeared based on its low infectivity and lethality
Posted on 5/13/20 at 12:38 pm to escatawpabuckeye
quote:
To be fair, there actually is a MERS vaccine that seems like it would work based on animal studies but the virus really disappeared based on its low infectivity and lethality
That has been one of my caveats with the vaccine talk. There could/should be a bit of a research headstart with the previous SARS 1.0 and MERS outbreaks, but that doesn't mean we'll have something safe and effective for human use in a year for SARS 2.0.
This post was edited on 5/13/20 at 12:40 pm
Posted on 5/13/20 at 1:49 pm to Sasquatch Smash
Of course. But it’s better than starting from the basement. Moreover, it’s already passed phase 1 trials. it generated the same immune profile seen in survivors of MERS. So just needs some tweaking - which is of course where the magic happens.
But at least it’s proof in concept that coronaviridae can probably be immunized for in humans.
But at least it’s proof in concept that coronaviridae can probably be immunized for in humans.
This post was edited on 5/13/20 at 1:50 pm
Posted on 5/13/20 at 2:49 pm to lsupride87
quote:
lsupride87
Any news on the Ochsner antibody studies?
Posted on 5/13/20 at 2:57 pm to Bullfrog
quote:
It’s stability will be its downfall.
Exactly. In theory a coronavirus vaccine should be more effective than a flu vaccine. We have just never had a pressing need for a coronavirus vaccine.
The possibility of ADE is why everyone is proceeding with caution.
Posted on 5/13/20 at 4:08 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:****JUST GOT HUGE INTERESTING UPDATE****
Any news on the Ochsner antibody studies?
We have tested 17,500 total people for antibodies
For clinical front line employees-8.1% positive rate
For corporate staff that does not work in hospitals- 8.8%(yes, higher than clinical staff)
For non ochsner employees-9.9% positive
So our hospital clinical staff is showing less antibody rates than our corporate employees or the general public
and 17,500 sample size is huge
Posted on 5/13/20 at 6:12 pm to lsupride87
quote:General public?
For non ochsner employees-9.9% positive
Posted on 5/13/20 at 7:33 pm to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
quote:Yes, but this isn’t from our actual randomizes sample testing. This is just people that have came in wanting a test on their own for the general public tests
General public?
Posted on 5/13/20 at 9:22 pm to lsupride87
Posted on 5/13/20 at 9:23 pm to rds dc
Several new papers out pinning the IFR around 0.75% and attack rates in France and Spain b/w 4.5 - 5%. The antibody studies for France and Spain are somewhat discouraging, they suffered worse outbreaks in this 1st wave than the US and that makes the 1 - 3% attack rate for the US seem reasonable.
LINK
LINK
quote:
Results: After exclusions, there were 13 estimates of IFR included in the final meta-analysis, from a wide range of countries, published between February and April 2020. The meta-analysis demonstrated a point-estimate of IFR of 0.75% (0.49-1.01%) with significant heterogeneity (p<0.001).
LINK
quote:
By 11 May 2020, when interventions are scheduled to be eased, we project 2.8 million (range: 1.8–4.7) people, or 4.4% (range: 2.8–7.2) of the population, will have been infected.
LINK
quote:
Preliminary results of Spain's seroprevalence study #ENECOVID.
>60,000 participants
Antibodies for #SARSCoV2:
5% of Spanish population
Posted on 5/14/20 at 7:52 am to rds dc
In the US, based on antibody studies being released we are seeing for every 1% of the population infected a total population mortality rate of about 8 per 100,000. Flu's mortality is about 2 per 100,000 for every 1% infected.
Posted on 5/14/20 at 8:16 am to Shaun176
quote:This is where stats can be used to sway opinions
In the US, based on antibody studies being released we are seeing for every 1% of the population infected a total population mortality rate of about 8 per 100,000. Flu's mortality is about 2 per 100,000 for every 1% infected.
So, you cant print the true headline "Covid FOUR TIMES deadlier than flu"
and that will panic people
But this is something that should be looked at more in totality. If you told someone 2/100,000 people would die, or 8/100,000 people would die, it isnt really going to cause much difference in their fear
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