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Started By
Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 5/1/20 at 7:15 am to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 5/1/20 at 7:15 am to GOP_Tiger
There's a new preprint that establishes that the specific mutation Spike D614G is dominant in Europe and New York. A lot of people think that this mutation makes the virus more transmissible and would explain why the American West Coast had such an easier time defeating COVID-19 than NYC has had. Such a conclusion seems likely to me, but it still lacks conclusive proof.
1
Posted on 5/1/20 at 8:12 am to htran90
quote:
The mortality isn't a big deal, but longterm morbidity is something people keep overlooking.
Goal posts are shifting. We no longer need to track deaths but longterm morbidity.
Posted on 5/1/20 at 8:29 am to lsu13lsu
quote:
Goal posts are shifting. We no longer need to track deaths but longterm morbidity.
Morbidity has always been taken into account in every aspect of medicine. Whether people decide to count it, that's up to them.
Posted on 5/1/20 at 9:59 am to lsupride87
quote:
Let me clear, based off our infection rate, we beleive the states infection rate to be 8%
What was the percentage positive before any adjustments were made?
Posted on 5/1/20 at 10:07 am to ell_13
quote:
Did y’all break down by location? Was Nola higher with it being more densely populated?
You can estimate that based on deaths if you accept the 0.5% mortality which I think is pretty close to reality.
Based on 344 deaths in Orleans parish that would mean about 70,000 infections. That’s 18% of Orleans parish.
I would bet that when we open back up with all the social distancing and warm weather as well as almost 20% of the population having antibodies the R0 will be less than 1 and we won’t see another spike in New Orleans before winter. But that’s just a guess.
Posted on 5/1/20 at 10:08 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
A lot of people think that this mutation makes the virus more transmissible
Or the fact that NYC has 1 person per 1000 sqft in the city.
Posted on 5/1/20 at 10:10 am to lsu13lsu
I'll post the data from the Dutch here (the thread is a shitshow and most likely my fault for poking the bear).
This is good information for our healthcare workers that are likely scared by the WHO and other organizations "estimates" of a 3+% CFR.
Dutch Healthcare worker statistics:
LINK
PDF
For those who don't want to go through Google Translate:
Healthcare workers who show symptoms are tested (no asymptomatic test were done)
- 13,884 cases
- 9 deaths
- CFR: 0.06%
- Percent of cases hospitalized: 3%
- All 9 deaths were over 45, 6 of the 9 had underlying conditions
Since they didn't test asymptomatic healthcare workers, the IFR is likely much lower.
This is good information for our healthcare workers that are likely scared by the WHO and other organizations "estimates" of a 3+% CFR.
Dutch Healthcare worker statistics:
LINK
For those who don't want to go through Google Translate:
Healthcare workers who show symptoms are tested (no asymptomatic test were done)
- 13,884 cases
- 9 deaths
- CFR: 0.06%
- Percent of cases hospitalized: 3%
- All 9 deaths were over 45, 6 of the 9 had underlying conditions
Since they didn't test asymptomatic healthcare workers, the IFR is likely much lower.
This post was edited on 5/1/20 at 10:13 am
Posted on 5/1/20 at 10:29 am to WaWaWeeWa
quote:That is a good guess. I think we should "promote" (for lack of a better term) some infections among the demos that handle the infection well, under 40s. If enough get it and recover this summer, the better we will be for next winter.
I would bet that when we open back up with all the social distancing and warm weather as well as almost 20% of the population having antibodies the R0 will be less than 1 and we won’t see another spike in New Orleans before winter. But that’s just a guess.
Posted on 5/1/20 at 11:15 am to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
quote:
That is a good guess. I think we should "promote" (for lack of a better term) some infections among the demos that handle the infection well, under 40s. If enough get it and recover this summer, the better we will be for next winter
Rough math:
If R0 for New Orleans, with Nola people doing Nola things, is about 2.5 (outside of Mardi Gras which might spike it to Diamond Princess like numbers).
Herd Immunity would be at 1-(1/2.5) or 60% of the population. With 20% already infected or with antibodies, R(t) with NOLA being NOLA would be reduced by a 1/3 (or ~1.7).
Basically, need to cut out ~40% of infected interactions somehow. Let's say warm weather knocks out an additional 0.2 -> Now we're at 1.5 and need to cut out 1/3 of infected interactions.
At this level, assuming 50% of trasnsmissions were from symptomatic patients and 50% were asymptomatic (highest estimate I've seen for "asymptomatic" was 44% somewhere):
1) "If you're sick, stay home" would contain it, even with some leaks.
2) Since a certain percentage of the population will be scared bleep-less and cut back on social interaction no matter what we do, that will help
3) Nursing home precautions will continue, no matter what
4) If, for some as yet to be determined reason, a segment of the population is either completely resistant or somewhat resistant to infection, that will help (susceptible population not 100%). This seems to be a distinct possibility, especially with the under 20 crowd.
Posted on 5/1/20 at 11:18 am to BRIllini07
Exactly. I like your reasoning.
Posted on 5/1/20 at 12:17 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Okay, so what's the long-term morbidity issue?
Posted on 5/1/20 at 1:31 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Since I was infected and got over it, I wonder if I will be protected next winter when it starts again?
Posted on 5/1/20 at 1:31 pm to Commander Data
quote:
Since I was infected and got over it, I wonder if I will be protected next winter when it starts again?
In theory, you should be.
Posted on 5/1/20 at 1:37 pm to Commander Data
quote:
ince I was infected and got over it, I wonder if I will be protected next winter when it starts again?
Partly depends on how the virus mutates, but I'd imagine you'll have at least partial immunity, which could be enough to limit the severity if you get infected again.
Posted on 5/1/20 at 1:50 pm to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
quote:
That is a good guess. I think we should "promote" (for lack of a better term) some infections among the demos that handle the infection well, under 40s. If enough get it and recover this summer, the better we will be for next winter.
This is hard, because you don't want them passing it on to other (older) people.
One of the ideas that I keep playing with is subsidizing a few super-cheap cruises for young people. If you're 18-25, then take a cruise this summer. Go to the cruise line's private island. Everyone parties and shares the virus for 10 days.
When the boat gets back, everyone's tested. Those who are positive stay on the boat until they are negative.
Those who are initially negative get put in a hotel for two days and are then tested again before leaving the city.
The government could subsidize half the cost of the cruise or so. This promotes tourism, helps the cruise industry, allows young people to actually have some fun, and gets us closer to herd immunity, likely without anyone dying.
Posted on 5/1/20 at 2:37 pm to GOP_Tiger
LINK
That's a crazy asymptomatic rate. I wonder how many will eventually get sick.
quote:
The governor's COVID-19 Unified Command task force announced Friday that more than half of the inmates and staff tested at Trousdale Turner Correctional Center in Trousdale County were confirmed to be positive for the virus.
Of the 2,450 total tests given at the facility this week, more than 1,246 came back positive, the state reports.
quote:
The Tennessee correction and health departments determined that 98% of the prisons' cases were asymptomatic, according to Lee's office.
That's a crazy asymptomatic rate. I wonder how many will eventually get sick.
Posted on 5/1/20 at 3:08 pm to skullhawk
Question: has anyone seen/heard that only members from a single residence can sit at a table?
Posted on 5/1/20 at 3:40 pm to MorbidTheClown
Heard that on the radio. Impossible to enforce. These politicians are nut cakes.
Posted on 5/1/20 at 4:33 pm to GOP_Tiger
In his news conference today, Governor Edwards mentioned that more labs in Louisiana are about to come online. Anyone know what he's talking about?
Posted on 5/1/20 at 7:29 pm to GOP_Tiger
The guy who does the medcram youtube videos had A Q and A today with him and another doc. One of the questions was about covid as a carcinogen. They didn't rule it in or out.
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