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re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***

Posted on 4/7/20 at 4:09 pm to
Posted by Dire Wolf
bawcomville
Member since Sep 2008
40677 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 4:09 pm to
quote:


Maybe my opinion is skewed because this isn't a normal work from home scenario. It's not like a normal work from home where I can go meet up with friends for lunch or anything. Would be curious to see if I missed the office if I was seeing anybody outside of my roommates.


Not being able to work on the road has sucked for me since a lot of my job is doing site surveys to spec equipment out.

Sometimes it’s just nice to work from a coffee shop or something.


What really sucks is we are going to exit this right as the nice weather is done for and it’s hot as balls
This post was edited on 4/7/20 at 4:11 pm
Posted by TheCaterpillar
Member since Jan 2004
76774 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 4:34 pm to
nm
This post was edited on 4/7/20 at 4:41 pm
Posted by BRIllini07
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2015
3211 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 4:48 pm to
Not unexpected, but we'll have a daily high for US CV-19 deaths by a good margin today - expect media to jump on it. Still slightly below the UW curve we've all been looking at.

1826 with a few states left to report. Louisiana's report of 70 ranks 8th

NY,NJ,MI,GA,CT,IL,MA coming in higher than LA today.
Posted by TheCaterpillar
Member since Jan 2004
76774 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 4:49 pm to
Georgia might get pretty bad. They are one of the worst on our models.

ETA:

Also the current 3% CFR is pretty bad. I thought by the time we had this many tests, it would be 1.5ish%.

Hopefully the antibody tests roll out so we can see the real mortality rates.
This post was edited on 4/7/20 at 4:54 pm
Posted by S1C EM
Athens, GA
Member since Nov 2007
11594 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 4:54 pm to
quote:


Georgia might get pretty bad. They are one of the worst on our models.


Elaborate, please.
Posted by wdhalgren
Member since May 2013
5645 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 5:04 pm to
quote:

Elaborate, please.


When I was in school, I worked with a country doctor in Georgia one summer. His observation was, "not enough sense to piss in a boot".
Posted by S1C EM
Athens, GA
Member since Nov 2007
11594 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 5:07 pm to
quote:

When I was in school, I worked with a country doctor in Georgia one summer. His observation was, "not enough sense to piss in a boot".


I get that, I do. I’ve been to Walmart. Still, we’re not alone in that regard. So why is the Georgia modeling bad?
Posted by wdhalgren
Member since May 2013
5645 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 5:20 pm to
Maybe a combination of the known health risk factors, combined with Atlanta being the biggest city in the Southeast and an airline travel hub? Plus the Albany situation has added quite a few deaths for the southern part of the state.
Posted by TheCaterpillar
Member since Jan 2004
76774 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 5:21 pm to
It’s not the worst, but it isn’t a great model. I’m not really sure without looking at the inputs and it’s almost quitting time.

My guess is the separate pockets/clusters (like Cartersville), combined with international travel based out of there which likely led to spread, and a large/dense “at risk” population.
Posted by S1C EM
Athens, GA
Member since Nov 2007
11594 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 5:24 pm to
quote:

Plus the Albany situation has added quite a few deaths for the southern part of the state.


I know there are at least two patients from Albany that were diverted to Athens and that’s concerning to me.
Posted by TheCaterpillar
Member since Jan 2004
76774 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 5:27 pm to
Cartersville was one of our worst markets at first. There was a pretty big cluster from a church or something like that.

The Atlanta airport is what, the busiest airport on Earth? And Georgia has super large concentrations of black folks, who are more susceptible to poor outcomes. I'll look tomorrow. Sorry, time for my "sanity walk" around the neighborhood with a 32 ounce cocktail.

ETA:

I think of Georgia as Alabama and Mississippi in terms of culture and types of people (Large AA %, high obesity rates, etc.). But it is those states on steroids with a super airport funneling in people from all over the world by the thousands every day and has much higher population numbers.

I love the South, but we are some unhealthy motherfrickers.

This post was edited on 4/7/20 at 5:37 pm
Posted by cleeveclever
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2008
2046 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 5:48 pm to
quote:

I love the South, but we are some unhealthy motherfrickers.


Too true. It’s the main reason so many on this thread were extremely worried about this virus rampaging in the South.
Posted by BowDownToLSU
Livingston louisiana
Member since Feb 2010
21808 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 5:52 pm to
quote:

Maybe a combination of the known health risk factors, combined with Atlanta being the biggest city in the Southeast
translates to a bunch of democrats... 70%
Posted by S1C EM
Athens, GA
Member since Nov 2007
11594 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 6:06 pm to
quote:

Cartersville was one of our worst markets at first. There was a pretty big cluster from a church or something like that.

The Atlanta airport is what, the busiest airport on Earth? And Georgia has super large concentrations of black folks, who are more susceptible to poor outcomes. I'll look tomorrow. Sorry, time for my "sanity walk" around the neighborhood with a 32 ounce cocktail.

ETA:

I think of Georgia as Alabama and Mississippi in terms of culture and types of people (Large AA %, high obesity rates, etc.). But it is those states on steroids with a super airport funneling in people from all over the world by the thousands every day and has much higher population numbers.

I love the South, but we are some unhealthy motherfrickers.



You’re not wrong on any of that. Makes total sense. I know we had large groups of black folks in a few poorer areas of Athens that were out hustling and fighting each other right after Athens-Clarke County shite down. Totally stupid. And two funerals and a church service started the spiral here in Albany. Just dumb.
Posted by 1BamaRTR
In Your Head Blvd
Member since Apr 2015
24876 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 6:07 pm to
One state that I didn’t realize is doing so bad is Connecticut. I think they’re projected the have the highest death rate per capita in the country. But it makes sense when you consider they’re pretty close to NY. And although they have a small population, it’s also a fairly high population density.
Posted by Lsut81
Member since Jun 2005
85719 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 6:22 pm to
Birx gave a stat that was eye opening... Not that coldn’t have figured it out, but

NYC 14/1000
New Orleans 3/1000
Most other cities 1/1000 or less

That is the infection rate... Seriously, that is it? As much that is going on, I would have guess it was at least 1-2/100 everywhere.
Posted by BRIllini07
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2015
3211 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 6:33 pm to
Orleans has over 4000 cases in a population of less than 400,000 - right off the bat that’s more than 10/1000
Posted by Lsut81
Member since Jun 2005
85719 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 6:40 pm to
She may have said Louisiana on that one... Because she said NY was 7/1000 and NYC was 14/1000

Posted by JohnnyKilroy
Cajun Navy Vice Admiral
Member since Oct 2012
41731 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 6:46 pm to
It's approximately 1.25% of the nola population has it.

A hair less 1% for the NOLA metro area
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21637 posts
Posted on 4/7/20 at 6:57 pm to
quote:

As much that is going on, I would have guess it was at least 1-2/100 everywhere.


Just for reference, 2/100 for 360 million is about 7 million infected and 200,000 dead.
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