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re: Compared to H1N1

Posted on 3/12/20 at 11:47 am to
Posted by terriblegreen
Souf Badden Rewage
Member since Aug 2011
11207 posts
Posted on 3/12/20 at 11:47 am to
The difference I believe is social media is driving this. That, plus the 24 hour news cycle and the politicization of the whole ordeal. Both H1N1 and H1N5 were worse than this.
Posted by Pintail
Member since Nov 2011
11417 posts
Posted on 3/12/20 at 11:48 am to
I'm tired of all these truths. You can't be bringing that up in here.

COVID-19 is going to kill over 48,000,000 people in the US alone. Thats what Joe Rogan told me this morning.
Posted by Sun God
Member since Jul 2009
46769 posts
Posted on 3/12/20 at 11:48 am to
quote:

Maybe they don’t want 12,000 people to die again?

The few thousand people that die from this are gonna be expensive
Posted by NYNolaguy1
Member since May 2011
21421 posts
Posted on 3/12/20 at 11:48 am to
quote:

Both H1N1 and H1N5 were worse than this.


I would love to see the information that would compel someone to this opinion.
Posted by Volvagia
Fort Worth
Member since Mar 2006
52359 posts
Posted on 3/12/20 at 11:50 am to
Also, I don’t think the equivalent of 20 million have been infected yet.

I mean, you do realize that after enough people are dead to make comparisons about which is better or worse, it’s too late to do anything different, right?

Liberals aren’t the ones who closed flights to mainland Europe or classified HHS discussions on the virus.
Posted by Volvagia
Fort Worth
Member since Mar 2006
52359 posts
Posted on 3/12/20 at 11:50 am to
quote:



I would love to see the information that would compel someone to this opinion.



Muh feelings
Posted by frankthetank
Member since Oct 2007
2414 posts
Posted on 3/12/20 at 11:51 am to
quote:

The severity of H1N1 resulted in less transmission.


What? The swine flu infected between 700 Million and 1.4 BILLION people globally.
Posted by stout
Porte du Lafitte
Member since Sep 2006
175628 posts
Posted on 3/12/20 at 11:52 am to
quote:

Started in April. Vaccine available next February. 10 months.




OK maybe it was in testing with 4 months and ready in 10. I just remember 4 months for some reason.
Posted by frankthetank
Member since Oct 2007
2414 posts
Posted on 3/12/20 at 11:53 am to
quote:

Both H1N1 and H1N5 were worse than this.

----
I would love to see the information that would compel someone to this opinion


LINK

2009 H1N1 Swine Flu Pandemic:

quote:
In the spring of 2009, a novel influenza A (H1N1) virus emerged. It was detected first in the United States and spread quickly across the United States and the world.

From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1) pdm09 virus.

Additionally, CDC estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from (H1N1) pdm09 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated.** Globally, 80 percent of (H1N1)pdm09 virus-related deaths were estimated to have occurred in people younger than 65 years of age. This differs greatly from typical seasonal influenza epidemics, during which about 70 percent to 90 percent of deaths are estimated to occur in people 65 years and older.
Posted by NYNolaguy1
Member since May 2011
21421 posts
Posted on 3/12/20 at 11:55 am to
So your basic premise is that this will kill less than 12,000 people?
Posted by Volvagia
Fort Worth
Member since Mar 2006
52359 posts
Posted on 3/12/20 at 11:56 am to
quote:


Within 1 week now people on this board will finally realize that this is not a joke.


Assuming Italy wasn’t a complete fluke:

My guess the mark will be in two and half weeks, with the second wave of fatalities start coming in.
Posted by Volvagia
Fort Worth
Member since Mar 2006
52359 posts
Posted on 3/12/20 at 11:57 am to
quote:



OK maybe it was in testing with 4 months and ready in 10. I just remember 4 months for some reason.


That sounds about right for development/testing for a traditional style vaccine.
Posted by frankthetank
Member since Oct 2007
2414 posts
Posted on 3/12/20 at 11:57 am to
quote:

So your basic premise is that this will kill less than 12,000 people?


In the US? Yes.

Coronavirus has higher fatality rate amongst elderly and those with underlying conditions than the swine flu, so safeguards are appropriate. But swine flu was bad and the media didn't hype panic and fear like they are doing now.
Posted by NYNolaguy1
Member since May 2011
21421 posts
Posted on 3/12/20 at 12:02 pm to
quote:

Coronavirus has higher fatality rate amongst elderly and those with underlying conditions than the swine flu, so safeguards are appropriate. But swine flu was bad and the media didn't hype panic and fear like they are doing now.


I mean I hope you're right, but data collected from other countries suggests more response is needed than what was done for swine flu, otherwise you end up like Italy which is approach 1,000 deaths just this week and the entire nation under quarantine.

If you lived through Katrina I don't have to remind you what that would look like here- so I think its prudent to avoid that scenario by taking strong steps.

Also, being as no one has a crystal ball, it is a bit early to be spiking the football and bragging that deaths will be under a certain number when cases are going through the roof here.
This post was edited on 3/12/20 at 12:05 pm
Posted by Norbert
Member since Oct 2018
3481 posts
Posted on 3/12/20 at 12:02 pm to
Less social media
Posted by Walking the Earth
Member since Feb 2013
17313 posts
Posted on 3/12/20 at 12:02 pm to
quote:

COVID-19 is going to kill over 48,000,000 people in the US alone. Thats what Joe Rogan told me this morning.



And I'll still never get Masters tickets.
Posted by choupiquesushi
yaton rouge
Member since Jun 2006
32670 posts
Posted on 3/12/20 at 12:03 pm to
quote:

I had a professor get H1N1.
I got it, it sucked but was not in the same league with listeria or military grade hazing
Posted by jbgleason
Bailed out of BTR to God's Country
Member since Mar 2012
19514 posts
Posted on 3/12/20 at 12:25 pm to
quote:

Also, being as no one has a crystal ball, it is a bit early to be spiking the football and bragging that deaths will be under a certain number when cases are going through the roof here.


I agree with this but fail to see why the people who make that statement are the same ones predicting worldwide death and destruction. Why can’t we all take a “let’s be cautious, use best health practices and see where this goes” attitude?
Posted by Salmon
I helped draft the email
Member since Feb 2008
85096 posts
Posted on 3/12/20 at 12:26 pm to
quote:

Why can’t we all take a “let’s be cautious, use best health practices and see where this goes” attitude?



seems like what most everyone is doing
Posted by ThuperThumpin
Member since Dec 2013
8257 posts
Posted on 3/12/20 at 12:27 pm to
I've been asking the same question as the OP. Is this going to get more people sick than swine flu and will we have more people dead?

For what its worth from Bloomberg
LINK

Why was H1N1 allowed to spread around the world more or less unchecked, while countries are going to far greater lengths to try to halt Covid-19? Why did the WHO call H1N1 a pandemic but not Covid-19? Isn’t 12,469 deaths a lot worse than the 26 that have been attributed to Covid-19 in the U.S. so far?

That last one is the simplest to answer: Covid-19 is near the beginning of its spread in the U.S., and thus cannot be compared with H1N1’s effect over a full year. If the U.S. death toll from Covid-19 is only 12,469 a year from now, that will likely be counted as a great success. The legitimate worry is that it could be many, many times higher, because Covid-19 is so much deadlier for those who get it than the 2009 H1N1 influenza was.

How much deadlier is still unknown, but of the cases reported to the WHO so far 3.4% have resulted in fatalities. That’s probably misleadingly high because there are so many unreported cases, and in South Korea, which has done the best job of keeping up with the spread of the virus through testing, the fatality rate so far is about 0.7%. But even that is 35 times worse than H1N1 in 2009 and 2010. Multiply 12,469 by 35 and you get 436,415 — which would amount to the biggest U.S. infectious-disease death toll since the 1918 flu. Hospitalization rates are also many times higher for Covid-19, meaning that if it spread as widely as H1N1 it would overwhelm the U.S. health-care system.

That’s one very important reason governments (and stock markets) around the world have reacted so much more strongly to Covid-19 than to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Another reason is somewhat more hope-inspiring. It’s that public health experts generally don’t think influenza can be controlled once it starts spreading, other than with a vaccine, whereas several Asian countries seem to have successfully turned back the coronavirus tide, for now at least.

Influenza can’t be controlled because as much as half the transmission of the disease occurs before symptoms appear. With Covid-19 that proportion seems to be lower, meaning that even though it’s more contagious than influenza once symptoms appear, it may be possible to control by testing widely and quickly isolating those who have the disease. This is one reason (there are others) the WHO’s Tedros won’t call it a pandemic. “The threat of a pandemic has become very real,” he said Monday. “But it would be the first pandemic in history that could be controlled.” H1N1 couldn’t be controlled in 2009, but was mild enough that this did not lead to disaster. Covid-19 is a much more dangerous disease that maybe, just maybe, can be stopped.
This post was edited on 3/12/20 at 12:29 pm
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