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Climatology baws, is there a scientific reason droughts have become less severe in the US?

Posted on 11/25/19 at 10:42 am
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
140573 posts
Posted on 11/25/19 at 10:42 am


Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI).

LINK
Posted by SuperSaint
Sorting Out OT BS Since '2007'
Member since Sep 2007
151559 posts
Posted on 11/25/19 at 10:46 am to
Global evenly distriputed precipitation is a thing!! Stay Woked
Posted by BugAC
St. George
Member since Oct 2007
58281 posts
Posted on 11/25/19 at 10:48 am to
quote:

Climatology baws, is there a scientific reason droughts have become less severe in the US?



Global....wetting. Or something.

Basically, it's your fault, but if i tax you more, then it's still your fault. So i'll need a few more taxes.
Posted by Tigeralum2008
Yankees Fan
Member since Apr 2012
17754 posts
Posted on 11/25/19 at 10:50 am to
Uneducated guess: Warmer temps leads to more evaporation leads to more precipitation.

I also say the ocean currents have been playing in our favor since the California drought
Posted by Konkey Dong
Member since Aug 2013
2386 posts
Posted on 11/25/19 at 10:51 am to
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91873 posts
Posted on 11/25/19 at 10:51 am to
It seems logical, no?

If the ocean is warming, that means more moisture in the atmosphere. More moisture in the atmosphere means more rain. More rain means less severe droughts.
This post was edited on 11/25/19 at 1:11 pm
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
140573 posts
Posted on 11/25/19 at 10:51 am to
I just thought there might be a plausible scientific theory behind less severe droughts in the US over the past 125 years.
Posted by ragincajun77
Member since Jul 2019
911 posts
Posted on 11/25/19 at 10:53 am to
Let's go ask the guys on the poliboard...I'm sure those experts will have the answer
Posted by wickowick
Head of Island
Member since Dec 2006
46423 posts
Posted on 11/25/19 at 10:54 am to
Irrigated farming practices.
Posted by K9
wayx....BOBO IN '19 &lt-- oops
Member since Sep 2012
26844 posts
Posted on 11/25/19 at 10:54 am to
Increased temps...not saying it's man made, I thinks it's just natural cycles that have been happening since the beginning of time.

But increased temps = more evaporation = more precip.

Water cycle, baws.
Posted by BugAC
St. George
Member since Oct 2007
58281 posts
Posted on 11/25/19 at 10:57 am to
quote:

It seems logical, no?


No.

To The Horror Of Global Warming Alarmists, Global Cooling Is Here

Something about that big ball of fire in space affecting temperatures and climate...Sounds crazy, i know...
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
140573 posts
Posted on 11/25/19 at 11:02 am to
quote:

Uneducated guess: Warmer temps leads to more evaporation leads to more precipitation.

I also say the ocean currents have been playing in our favor since the California drought


But US temps have remained pretty steady over the same time period (maybe a 10th of one degree Fahrenheit increase in the last 125 years) . NOAA's US temp data from 1895 to 2019:

Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
140573 posts
Posted on 11/25/19 at 11:03 am to
quote:

Irrigated farming practices.


I agree with this.
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
51614 posts
Posted on 11/25/19 at 11:04 am to
quote:

is there a scientific reason droughts have become less severe

More rain
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
140573 posts
Posted on 11/25/19 at 11:05 am to
quote:

Increased temps...not saying it's man made, I thinks it's just natural cycles that have been happening since the beginning of time.

But increased temps = more evaporation = more precip.

Water cycle, baws.


But just saying increased temps only answers half the question because more participation leads to cooler temps which is the other half.
Posted by CFDoc
Member since Jan 2013
2312 posts
Posted on 11/25/19 at 11:15 am to
Yes, because the governing laws of our climatological surroundings are high dimensional, strongly coupled, extremely non-linear, and stochastically evolving.

Therefore, any attempts to describe the systems using very low dimensional, low order (such as mean, variance, 'ole boy Palmer Indices, etc.), and linear interpolations/extrapolations about a local point yield, at best, extremely limited information.

Furthermore, discussions directed towards increase/decrease of climate "severity" based on such low order inferences (which is highly successful at stealing taxpayer money) are an absolute waste of time.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91873 posts
Posted on 11/25/19 at 11:19 am to
quote:

But just saying increased temps only answers half the question because more participation leads to cooler temps which is the other half.


Depends where it's raining.

You have to remember that global warming/cooling/anything doesn't mean the US only.
Posted by PorkSammich
North FL
Member since Sep 2013
17982 posts
Posted on 11/25/19 at 11:42 am to
quote:

GumboPot It seems logical, no? If the ocean is warming, that means more moisture in the atmosphere. More moisture in the atmosphere means more rain. More rain means mess severe droughts.


So warming is good?

Sounds like we need more warming.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
76107 posts
Posted on 11/25/19 at 12:15 pm to
I believe contradictions lead to confusion which leads to distrust of most, if not all, "experts".
I took a completely unscientific approach and searched, "Climate change causing drought". I then searched, "Climate change causing more rain". I found links to seemingly reliable sources on both, and each contradicts the other.
I'm not generalizing anything, as you can't in weather/climate talk, because it is a "Big Ol' World", but I'm highlighting a problem.
One could make a search from any angle and come up with supporting claims in regards to what impacts climate change may have. Of course, that could probably apply to any topic on the interwebs.
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
140573 posts
Posted on 11/25/19 at 12:30 pm to
We are seeing less extremes in temperature over time in the US especially the Midwest. That is, we are seeing higher low temperatures and lower high temperatures.

Why?

Because man is spreading water throughout the Midwest by irrigation. This is a theory I found on my own but I'm certainly not the only one. Study: irrigation causes 'significant cooling of global average surface temperatures over land'

Water evaporating during the day removes energy from the local atmosphere. It specifically removes 2256 kJ/kg of energy per unit mass of water. Evaporation is an endothermic process it removes energy (aka, heat). With more water in the Midwest due to man irrigating Midwest farmland more heat is removed during the day time hours thus we see lower high temperatures as the volume of water increases in the Midwest.

The opposite is true at night.

Condensation occurs. Condensation is an exothermic process. As water condenses it releases the same energy (aka, heat) as it took up in the evaporation process during the day. The release of heat due to condensation is leading to higher low temperatures.

This is what the temperature data is showing.

There is a correlation with CO2 but CO2 is not causing the more temperate Midwest. That correlation (as CO2 increases Midwest temperature range decreases) is simply accidental and totally disproves global warming theory if you try to apply a CO2/temperature correlation.

A much more plausible explanation for the more temperate Midwest is due to water and what I just previously explained. It’s the same reason coastal cities and island nations are, well, temperate.


Before I posted my explanation above I just wanted to see if any OT climatologist would post their own theories. If the theory I outlined is true it's man made climate damping which obviously has caused man and nature to thrive. The evidence is all around us. Less droughts. Less forest fires on a per acre basis. More food...less starvation. Etc., etc.
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