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Blown Out Of Proportion

Posted on 3/18/20 at 2:42 pm
Posted by Catchfalaya
Member since Feb 2018
2064 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 2:42 pm
First time commenting on this Covid-19 situation. My numbers may be not accurate as these are from earlier this morning via LDH. So we have 240 cases with six deaths of which four of the deaths were from individuals over 80 years old. Not including the four elderly deaths that gives us a fatality rate of .008%. I am against the measures of the Government to close all restaurants, gyms, bars, etc. Most of those establishments were taking proper sanitary precautions to begin with. We are not dealing with Ebola where you bleed from your eyeballs here, but a virus that acts similarly to the Flu that claims the lives of folks who are elderly, just like the flu. To shutdown society is only laying the foundation to do it again down the road just as easily. The effect of limited income/no income for two to three months will cause death also, whether some folks commit suicide or start murdering people committing home invasions/etc.
Posted by MorbidTheClown
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2015
76781 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 2:42 pm to
yep, this need it's own thread
Posted by Centinel
Idaho
Member since Sep 2016
46721 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 2:43 pm to
quote:

yep, this need it's own thread


Sounds like something a virus denier would say.
Posted by Bonkers119
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2015
12101 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 2:43 pm to
You know, I was really waiting to hear what Catchfalaya had to say before I decided how serious this was. Thanks for this.
Posted by Oilfieldbiology
Member since Nov 2016
42767 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 2:43 pm to
I agree with your opinion, but you can’t just remove 2/3’s the deaths because they were old. That’s not how statistics work
Posted by PearlJam
NotBeardEaves
Member since Aug 2014
13908 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 2:44 pm to
quote:

So we have 240 cases with six deaths of which four of the deaths were from individuals over 80 years old. Not including the four elderly deaths that gives us a fatality rate of .008%
gotta see the math on this one
This post was edited on 3/18/20 at 2:46 pm
Posted by PiscesTiger
Concrete, WA
Member since Feb 2004
53696 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 2:44 pm to
That's it. I'm going out to Gold's Gym and breaking in and doing super sets on arms. Who's in?
Posted by iAmBatman
The Batcave
Member since Mar 2011
12382 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 2:45 pm to
what a new and interesting take...we really needed to have this on the site
Posted by Steadyhands
Slightly above I-10
Member since May 2016
7204 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 2:45 pm to
quote:

start murdering people committing home invasions/etc.


Pretty sure now that I'm home all day, I agree with this. I am more likely to murder someone committing a home invasion now. I don't see the issue.
Posted by JDPndahizzy
JDP
Member since Nov 2013
7031 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 2:46 pm to
quote:

My numbers may be not accurate

Checks out
Posted by iAmBatman
The Batcave
Member since Mar 2011
12382 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 2:47 pm to
quote:

So we have 240 cases with six deaths of which four of the deaths were from individuals over 80 years old. Not including the four elderly deaths that gives us a fatality rate of .008%.


your math is all sorts of fricked up...it's a good thing you don't post much
Posted by Scruffy
Kansas City
Member since Jul 2011
78045 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 2:47 pm to
quote:

yep, this need it's own thread
Absolutely.

We need threads like this to be posted over and over again so that people will be repeatedly reminded of what their panic caused.
Posted by Ronaldo Burgundiaz
NWA
Member since Jan 2012
6795 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 2:47 pm to
quote:

First time commenting on this Covid-19 situation. My numbers may be not accurate as these are from earlier this morning via LDH. So we have 240 cases with six deaths of which four of the deaths were from individuals over 80 years old. Not including the four elderly deaths that gives us a fatality rate of .008%.
This situation is definitely blown out of proportion, but your math skills are terrifying.

I think you are trying to say
(6-4)/240 = .008%
(6-4)/240 = .008, which is .8%, not .008%
Posted by iAmBatman
The Batcave
Member since Mar 2011
12382 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 2:47 pm to
talk about understatement of the year
Posted by PearlJam
NotBeardEaves
Member since Aug 2014
13908 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 2:48 pm to
quote:

I think you are trying to say
(6-4)/240 = .008%
(6-4)/240 = .008, which is .8%, not .008%
Also, if you discount the other 2 deaths, the death rate is zero.
Posted by iAmBatman
The Batcave
Member since Mar 2011
12382 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 2:49 pm to
quote:

Also, if you discount the other 2 deaths, the death rate is zero.



and if my aunt had a dick, she'd be my uncle
Posted by ldts
Member since Aug 2015
2938 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 2:56 pm to
quote:

I agree with your opinion, but you can’t just remove 2/3’s the deaths because they were old. That’s not how statistics work


True, but having the majority of deaths within a relatively small category does suggest that the reasonable and rational response would be to quarantine that group at risk instead of just shutting society down and inflicting an untold amount of economic misery on millions of people. Saving a few thousand lives isn't worth the pain that's being put on a lot of people who are not who are not in a good position to deal with it (e.g. low wage earners, small business owners).
Posted by SloaneRanger
Upper Hurstville
Member since Jan 2014
14339 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 2:57 pm to
quote:

four of the deaths were from individuals over 80 years old


It may not be a popular opinion, but in assessing the lethality of this thing and the appropriate way to respond to it, it is perfectly rational to take into account who is dying as a result of the disease. If many or most of the deaths are of the extremely aged or others suffering from co-morbidities, that is something to consider. If you want to throw the deaths of the 90+ crowd into the mortality statistics, fine. But in my view the people making the decisions need to consider this.
Posted by maxxrajun70
baton rouge
Member since Oct 2011
3726 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 5:55 pm to
[quote]and if my aunt had a dick, she'd be my uncle


She does.. and it’s bigger than yours .... nerd
Posted by Catchfalaya
Member since Feb 2018
2064 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 5:59 pm to
For the first time since the week ending February 29, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has released its Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report, which shows that the death toll from the seasonal flu has reached 22,000, including 144 children.

^^!! 22,000 Flu Deaths NO WAY corona gets close to that figure.
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