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Started By
Message
re: Big Cold Blast Coming - Round 2
Posted on 12/28/17 at 9:37 am to Tiger Prawn
Posted on 12/28/17 at 9:37 am to Tiger Prawn
0
Posted on 12/28/17 at 9:37 am to bayoubengals88
quote:
This is NEVER supposed to happen on Lake Pontchartrain
Okay, I get it. I thought lake effect snow was one of the primary reasons why Madisonville, etc. got more snow than other places in St. Tammany back in 2008. I dunno. I'll just be glad if I get an extra day or two off of work! The kids would like more snow, that's for damn sure.
Could we possibly be looking at Icemageddon II?
This post was edited on 12/28/17 at 9:46 am
Posted on 12/28/17 at 9:39 am to TDsngumbo
Need a TLDR in the OP.
bolded 3 lines that say
Snow: [Yes] No
Day: [Date]
Location: [Areas affected]
bolded 3 lines that say
Snow: [Yes] No
Day: [Date]
Location: [Areas affected]
Posted on 12/28/17 at 9:40 am to bayoubengals88
quote:
quote:
What is the joke with lake effect snow? What am I missing here?
I’m gonna make a list of cities known for lake effect snow and I’ll include one that’s probably never experienced it...
South Bend, IN
Erie, PA
Buffalo, NY
Slidell, LA
The Great Lakes produce lake effect snow when extremely cold air sweeps over unfrozen water.
This is NEVER supposed to happen on Lake Pontchartrain
It's possible and may have happened before
quote:
#2: Lake Ponchartrain Lake-Effect: Lake Pontchartrain is much smaller, just over 30 miles across at its maximum width (per a map on WikiPedia). The article mentioned above quotes the minimum documented fetch for lake-effect to occur as 40 km (25 miles), sighting Lake Tahoe, Nevada, from which lake-effect snow has been observed. ("Fetch" is the length of water over which the cold air can flow before hitting land). Wikipedia claims that the maximum length of Lake Tahoe is 35 km (22 miles) but close enough. So, in theory it is possible. Only one lone post I could find on Google claims that it did happen, in December 2003. The author of the site has no valid contact information and all attempts to contact him have failed. An email inquiring about the possibility of Lake-Effect snow on Lake Ponchartrain that I sent to the NWS office in New Orleans earlier this month has gone unanswered. So for the moment I'm calling this one "Plausible" (but unproven).
Posted on 12/28/17 at 9:41 am to TDsngumbo
What might be a challenge is when the Mississippi river has to handle all of that snow melt. No sign of above freezing weather even out to 384 hours anywhere along the rivers that drain to the Mississippi, and nearly the entire North has snow cover and is gradually picking up more.
Posted on 12/28/17 at 9:46 am to BRIllini07
I don't see that as being an issue.
Posted on 12/28/17 at 9:48 am to TheFonz
quote:. I don’t think that was it but it’s possible. Around Hammond and Ponchatoula we had 8-9 inches. While just west toward Albany, Holden and walker had 6 inches and to the east in madisonville they got about 6 as well. I think it just happened that way.
I thought lake effect snow was one of the primary reasons why Madisonville, etc. got more snow than other places in St. Tammany back in 2008. I dunno. I'll just be glad if I get an extra day or two off of work! The kids would like more snow, that's for damn sure.
Posted on 12/28/17 at 9:49 am to dukke v
quote:HOT, FRESH, TAKE!
This potential Event IS a bad sign for people in LA... we are prepared for an event like this... cold is one thing but 3-4 inches of snow is another.... up north .... they get 3-4 inches of snow and roll right along... down here it will shut down the whole area... bridges will close and traffic will be an even bigger cluster than usual....
(or cold...)
Posted on 12/28/17 at 10:03 am to BRIllini07
quote:
What might be a challenge is when the Mississippi river has to handle all of that snow melt
Now that's something I can get excited about
Posted on 12/28/17 at 10:07 am to BRIllini07
I think the majority of the Mississippi River's flow comes from the midwest and Ohio River Valley across Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Looking at your map we should be fine with river rises.
Posted on 12/28/17 at 10:10 am to dukke v
quote:
This potential Event IS a bad sign for people in LA... we are prepared for an event like this... cold is one thing but 3-4 inches of snow is another.... up north .... they get 3-4 inches of snow and roll right along... down here it will shut down the whole area... bridges will close and traffic will be an even bigger cluster than usual....
I'll take "Obvious fricking shite" for $1000, Alex.
Any other brilliant observations, Sherlock?
On the topic at hand, I've noticed Accuweather's forecasted low for Tuesday in Ville Platte has slowly inched up the last 3 days. It was 4 on Tuesday, now showing 18.
Any reasonable guesses as to why they are going up? Moving towards the mean?
Posted on 12/28/17 at 10:14 am to bayoubengals88
quote:
This potential Event IS a bad sign for people in LA... we are prepared for an event like this... cold is one thing but 3-4 inches of snow is another.... up north .... they get 3-4 inches of snow and roll right along... down here it will shut down the whole area... bridges will close and traffic will be an even bigger cluster than usual....
quote:
HOT, FRESH, TAKE! (or cold...)
Well hell, that is a sign for a road trip to the beach.
Posted on 12/28/17 at 10:15 am to Cowboyfan89
GFS hates southern snow now 
Posted on 12/28/17 at 10:15 am to Cowboyfan89
quote:
Any reasonable guesses as to why they are going up?
GFS and Canadian models were both stupid cold and now the GFS has moderated and the Euro has dropped some to meet it.
So yeah, they're riding the mean of the two most trusted models with a slight cold bias. AccuWeather is falling in line much closer to the NWS now too. So hard to argue their numbers, especially with our NWS suggesting they still might be warm.
Posted on 12/28/17 at 10:17 am to rt3
quote:
GFS hates southern snow now
GFS isn't letting that secondary lowish pressure system spin up. Wind too dry. Too NW. It kind of just washes that energy out instead of having it get more focused near us.
It's the outlier on that, but I'll note projecting that sort of thing has a high degree of uncertainty.
Posted on 12/28/17 at 10:20 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
I'm surprised to not see GEAUXmedic in this thread too much. Where has he been? And rlds or whatever his name is -- where has he been?
GEAUXmedic is a tropical guy, by and large, but he'll pop in with snippets from the legitimate meteorologists on the board he moderates.
I think rds dc just peruses these threads and pops in when someone has a more technical question.
Posted on 12/28/17 at 10:23 am to Duke
quote:
GFS isn't letting that secondary lowish pressure system spin up. Wind too dry. Too NW. It kind of just washes that energy out instead of having it get more focused near us.
It's the outlier on that, but I'll note projecting that sort of thing has a high degree of uncertainty.
Weather Channel (I know... shoot me) is bringing up the potential of southern snow and are mostly writing it off for the time being
Posted on 12/28/17 at 10:24 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
I'm surprised to not see GEAUXmedic in this thread too much. Where has he been? And rlds or whatever his name is -- where has he been?
They only show up for important weather threads.
This post was edited on 12/28/17 at 10:25 am
Posted on 12/28/17 at 10:29 am to notiger1997
quote:
I don't see that as being an issue.
While it's still too far out to suggest spring flooding will be an issue, an abnormally cold winter east of the Rockies isn't a good start.
Posted on 12/28/17 at 10:30 am to TDsngumbo
A bad Lower Mississippi River flood requires high runoff from both the Ohio and Missouri rivers. it's pretty rare for them both to occur at the same time.
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