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re: Beta - Downgraded to TD - Now Short Break in Storms or Season Over?

Posted on 9/20/20 at 6:28 pm to
Posted by Nutriaitch
Montegut
Member since Apr 2008
10610 posts
Posted on 9/20/20 at 6:28 pm to
quote:

Cone shifted 2 S’s left


we need to figure out a specific scale for S, H, and M

and props to the guy that first used that as a u it of measurement.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71777 posts
Posted on 9/20/20 at 6:31 pm to
quote:

we need to figure out a specific scale for S, H, and M


The scale is the Alphabet Scale.
The size of a shift is directly determined by the size of the font that the NHC uses on graphics. Being that it is standard, it will never change without prior warning. It may be the most accurate scale of map measurement ever devised.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 9/20/20 at 6:33 pm to
quote:

Looks like the NWS has backed down rain totals? Guess they aren’t buying what the euro was showing earlier??



Clearly not.

The idea behind it might be pretty simple, just go step outside. Does that feel like a tropical airmass that could drop a foot or more of rain?

The convective allowing models aren't nearly as bullish and this is the kind of scenario you want to look at them. The Euro is seeing a lot of convergence (notice the wind in New Orleans?) but there appears to be something subtle the Euro is missing at this point.

It's why we have humans making forecasts. Just be aware the potential for higher totals might be there.



Can see an outflow boundary from the collapsing storms this afternoon. Always a really good sign some dry air got in there. Watching on a loop, you'd see the boundary going out to the east of the main core too.
This post was edited on 9/20/20 at 6:43 pm
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
40006 posts
Posted on 9/20/20 at 6:46 pm to
CE How is power restoration going in that area?
Posted by Janky
Team Primo
Member since Jun 2011
35957 posts
Posted on 9/20/20 at 6:48 pm to
Goofy question. How do we have a storm named Beta when we just had Sally? I thought these things went in alphabetical order?
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 9/20/20 at 6:49 pm to
quote:

I thought these things went in alphabetical order?


We ran out of names and are now doing Greek letters. Alpha got burned on a subtropical near Portugal. So we have Beta here.
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
40006 posts
Posted on 9/20/20 at 6:52 pm to
There’s a Teddy out there and they skip U and V and then there’s Wilfred — and then they I assume skip X, Y and Z.
Posted by soccerfüt
Location: A Series of Tubes
Member since May 2013
72873 posts
Posted on 9/20/20 at 6:57 pm to
quote:

It may be the most accurate scale of map measurement ever devised.
Blonde, Red, Brunette CHair says “Hold muh behr.”
This post was edited on 9/20/20 at 6:58 pm
Posted by soccerfüt
Location: A Series of Tubes
Member since May 2013
72873 posts
Posted on 9/20/20 at 6:57 pm to
Double Prizes!

Begging everyone’s indulgences.
This post was edited on 9/20/20 at 6:58 pm
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71777 posts
Posted on 9/20/20 at 6:58 pm to
quote:

Blonde, Red, Brunette CHair says “Hold muh behr.”

Do you have the ruler? You have the ruler, don't you?
Posted by Janky
Team Primo
Member since Jun 2011
35957 posts
Posted on 9/20/20 at 7:01 pm to
quote:

We ran out of names and are now doing Greek letters. Alpha got burned on a subtropical near Portugal. So we have Beta here.




Oh damn. I wasn't aware we ran through the alphabet already. Thanks.
Posted by OysterPoBoy
City of St. George
Member since Jul 2013
43113 posts
Posted on 9/20/20 at 7:19 pm to
Can you believe they tried to sneak Isaias by us like it was no big deal?
Posted by tigercraig
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2003
3754 posts
Posted on 9/20/20 at 7:41 pm to
I’m surprised how gusty it is in BR from this little storm
Posted by TigerNAtux
Louisiana
Member since Dec 2007
18480 posts
Posted on 9/20/20 at 8:00 pm to
Beta looking a little sickly out there right now.

Water is still rising though. Came up about 3 inches today with a pretty steady wind from the SE and an occasional northerly gust.

Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
129472 posts
Posted on 9/20/20 at 8:22 pm to
Really backing off on rainfall totals

Dare i say...nothingburger?
Posted by thadcastle
Member since Dec 2019
2841 posts
Posted on 9/20/20 at 8:33 pm to
What is Houston’s outlook for this storm?
Posted by Klark Kent
Houston via BR
Member since Jan 2008
73240 posts
Posted on 9/20/20 at 8:41 pm to
5-10” of rain. Minor localized flooding. With some mild wind gusts. Don’t buy into the local Houston news saying we’ll see get sustained tropical storm winds. We won’t.

I suspect 3 Mayor Turner press conferences.
2 Lina Hildago press conferences in the next 3 days.
Posted by CE Tiger
Metairie
Member since Jan 2008
41882 posts
Posted on 9/20/20 at 8:45 pm to
quote:

CE How is power restoration going in that area?

Kicking arse. Entergy is basically rebuilding some of its transmission line system (69kV - 500kV) . There were over 1400 destroyed structures and have repaired close to half.

Distribution numbers are even bigger and their progress is also very very impressive.
This post was edited on 9/20/20 at 8:46 pm
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
100539 posts
Posted on 9/20/20 at 8:52 pm to
Bingo
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
104363 posts
Posted on 9/20/20 at 8:54 pm to
Huge alligator in Gulf Shores during Hurricane Sally LINK
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