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Posted on 9/17/20 at 2:44 pm to Duke
quote:
quote:
Is that Italy?
Yep.
It's going toward Greece.
You got a cone for that?
Posted on 9/17/20 at 2:45 pm to Y.A. Tittle
quote:
You got a cone for that?
They do old world forecasting there.
Just make your hands into a triangle over the satellite image.
Posted on 9/17/20 at 2:46 pm to Duke
quote:
Just make your hands into a triangle over the satellite image.
Posted on 9/17/20 at 2:49 pm to rds dc
rds,
For this one, can you make it come at the end of the week. I'm tired of fighting the panic shoppers during my normal Sunday morning grocery runs.
Thanks in advance.
For this one, can you make it come at the end of the week. I'm tired of fighting the panic shoppers during my normal Sunday morning grocery runs.
Thanks in advance.
Posted on 9/17/20 at 3:16 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
Ensembles really clearing things up for 90L:
So like rds reminded us last night, there are a lot of questions here and the models kind of suck at answering a few of them. So at this point, I don't really care where the models show this thing going at this point. I care what models are getting things right in the short range. (don't ask me which ones are so far. I haven't done that level of homework on it yet)
The picture on Teddy is clearing up some though:
The GFS and Euro of yesterday are coming toward each other. Energy from northern stream trough phases with our Texas trough and what's left of Sally. South end hangs back and basically cuts off. Teddy gets rounded around it, but it's not strong enough to throw Teddy all the way to NE and instead does a little bend left and turn right into NS and New Brunswick.
I'd argue there's more uncertainty than depicted here because timing of all of this is critical and it's complicated AF. Also the Euro ensembles seem pretty underdispersive despite the large member #. After missing Laura too far west, plus not having the right range for Sally until late Sunday I do have questions about the tight cluster here vs the GFS-para's version of potential.
Recon in 90L soon. Teddy pushing Cat 4 this afternoon.
So like rds reminded us last night, there are a lot of questions here and the models kind of suck at answering a few of them. So at this point, I don't really care where the models show this thing going at this point. I care what models are getting things right in the short range. (don't ask me which ones are so far. I haven't done that level of homework on it yet)
The picture on Teddy is clearing up some though:
The GFS and Euro of yesterday are coming toward each other. Energy from northern stream trough phases with our Texas trough and what's left of Sally. South end hangs back and basically cuts off. Teddy gets rounded around it, but it's not strong enough to throw Teddy all the way to NE and instead does a little bend left and turn right into NS and New Brunswick.
I'd argue there's more uncertainty than depicted here because timing of all of this is critical and it's complicated AF. Also the Euro ensembles seem pretty underdispersive despite the large member #. After missing Laura too far west, plus not having the right range for Sally until late Sunday I do have questions about the tight cluster here vs the GFS-para's version of potential.
Recon in 90L soon. Teddy pushing Cat 4 this afternoon.
This post was edited on 9/17/20 at 4:10 pm
Posted on 9/17/20 at 3:19 pm to Duke
I feel much more confident that this one will stay inside of the cone
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Posted on 9/17/20 at 3:20 pm to Duke
Whats your gut telling you duke?
Posted on 9/17/20 at 3:25 pm to Cosmo
Posted on 9/17/20 at 3:30 pm to Duke
quote:
Whats your gut telling you duke?
quote:
Nobody make eye contact with 90L
Posted on 9/17/20 at 3:55 pm to Clockwatcher68
Posted on 9/17/20 at 4:06 pm to whodatdude
quote:
lifetime subscription to TD Premium
I have one, it even came with a welcome package that I excitedly opened and reviewed...
Not even a TD koozie
Posted on 9/17/20 at 4:10 pm to rds dc
Add the bingo card to OP, k thanks
Also chicken sent me a TD meteorological society koozie this year as my premium member swag
Also chicken sent me a TD meteorological society koozie this year as my premium member swag
Posted on 9/17/20 at 4:13 pm to rds dc
Damn, Teddy RI’d up to cat 4
Posted on 9/17/20 at 4:16 pm to Cosmo
Nice to be able to post one of these when it's just got open water all around.
Posted on 9/17/20 at 4:23 pm to Duke
Steve Caparotta, Ph.D.
@SteveWAFB
·
1m
Hurricane Hunters finding some westerly winds in #90L ... will see if they can close of a circulation for this to get the upgrade to #TD22.
Posted on 9/17/20 at 4:24 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
quote:
Makes more sense but still looks crazy.
And, that particular NOAA plane was/is on a strictly research related mission. They aren't beholden to the usual flight patterns on this one.
Posted on 9/17/20 at 4:29 pm to LegendInMyMind
When's the next update?
Posted on 9/17/20 at 4:30 pm to Duke
Damn. That thing is a beast.
Posted on 9/17/20 at 4:32 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
And, that particular NOAA plane was/is on a strictly research related mission. They aren't beholden to the usual flight patterns on this one.
NOAA: Alright guys, you just have a research mission into Teddy today. Here's the flight plan.
Flight Crew: It just says "eyewall".
NOAA: Have fun guys.
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