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Posted on 6/30/24 at 2:27 pm to rds dc
quote:
Do models always take turns taking one right to mouth of the Mississippi River?
Posted on 6/30/24 at 2:28 pm to Tarps99
quote:
models always take turns taking one right to mouth of the Mississippi River?
Always
Posted on 6/30/24 at 2:37 pm to Tarps99
quote:
Do models always take turns taking one right to mouth of the Mississippi River?
Rules are rules.
Posted on 6/30/24 at 2:45 pm to Mr Roboto
quote:
That would be a problem for the northern gulf coast
Looking at 12z guidance, it's hard to see the system taking a track like the 12z HWRF and not impacting the Upper Texas Coast or Louisiana. The 12z HWRF is on the right hand side of the 12z guidance envelope, but it does have support from a number of ensemble members. One thing I do wonder about is if the 12z globals are too weak with Beryl as it moves across the Carribean, thus keeping it too far south.
Posted on 6/30/24 at 2:47 pm to rds dc
Well umm yea frick all of this
Posted on 6/30/24 at 2:50 pm to rds dc
quote:
rds dc
Smartest person here... talks too smart for me.
Please use more "looks like it's going to arse rape texas if Xxx happens"
Posted on 6/30/24 at 2:54 pm to rds dc
quote:
One thing I do wonder about is if the 12z globals are too weak with Beryl as it moves across the Carribean, thus keeping it too far south.
How they're currently handling its intensity and where they initiated doesn't really give one the warm and fuzzies.
This post was edited on 6/30/24 at 2:55 pm
Posted on 6/30/24 at 3:03 pm to LegendInMyMind
How confident should we be in the idea that Beryl will have shear issues as it comes through the Caribbean?
Posted on 6/30/24 at 3:05 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Anxiety level starting to inch up. One thing if you are in the cone 7 days out you probably going to be ok. 3 out days and in your in for the ride.
Posted on 6/30/24 at 3:05 pm to Tarps99
quote:
Do models always take turns taking one right to mouth of the Mississippi River?
Models like to frick.
Posted on 6/30/24 at 3:09 pm to rds dc
That’s what I’m curious to see on the 18z runs, if the models can initate a similar starting pressure. If the models are stil 10-20 mb off the initiation point i can’t believe the runs personally
Posted on 6/30/24 at 3:09 pm to rds dc
quote:
Looking at 12z guidance,
Looking at the wind field distributions, it looks like GCM will be a mess July 3-5 even though storm will be south of island. Thought I'd be safe this early, damnit!
Posted on 6/30/24 at 3:12 pm to BregmansWheelbarrow
quote:
Let me tell you about Katrina.
I know all about Katrina. She destroyed many of my famly member's homes along the coastal areas. I also know she had winds of about 110mph as it moved over Hattiesburg. I was born and raised in Louisiana. I've owned properties from Gulf Shores to South Texas. I'm not directly on the coast for that reason. I've lived with hurricanes since 1965. I'm fully up to date.
Posted on 6/30/24 at 3:14 pm to BregmansWheelbarrow
quote:
Let me tell you about Katrina.
Posted on 6/30/24 at 3:21 pm to rds dc
Rds
When this storm gets involved with the shear would its strength (cat 4) make the shear weaker and allow the next storm to proceed with lower /no shear?
It seems to me (a novice) that something as powerful as a cat 4 would degrade/push out of the way fronts etc.
Or in a battle between the two does the front hold and remain in place against the next storm?
When this storm gets involved with the shear would its strength (cat 4) make the shear weaker and allow the next storm to proceed with lower /no shear?
It seems to me (a novice) that something as powerful as a cat 4 would degrade/push out of the way fronts etc.
Or in a battle between the two does the front hold and remain in place against the next storm?
Posted on 6/30/24 at 3:31 pm to SWLA92
HMON and HWRF initiated correctly and are totally on different end of the spectrum at the end of their runs
Posted on 6/30/24 at 3:39 pm to LSUneaux
quote:
What’s wrong with it? I always found it to be a nice little town. I was there a month ago for a couple days for work.
Serious lack of amenities. Very little drive among the local population to improve themselves, their property or their city. Litter everywhere. Smokers everywhere. The uneducated everywhere. A lot of what the OT would consider trashy people here. Very little competition with grocery stores so the prices are high. Third highest in the USA. Alcohol price are at least 1-1/2 times higher than Louisiana or Texas. All alcohol is controlled and sold through Jackson with massive taxes (27%+) added. shite vehicles everywhere. Only several decent restaurants. The rest are hit or miss. Poverty rate of 32%...yes, 32%.
Yes, there are some decent areas and some good people here. However, the majority just don't care. That's the part that I dislike the most. I don't get it. I do love my property and my home though.
Posted on 6/30/24 at 3:43 pm to Midtiger farm
I know that’s what I was getting at. I meant the main global models. GFS Euro and CMC. I’m hoping the HWRF and the HMON aren’t correct but I have a feeling they are getting a better grasp on the short term forecast as far as intensity and path.
Posted on 6/30/24 at 3:48 pm to SWLA92
[/url][/img] 4pm advisor pressure down to 960mb
Now forecasted Cat 2 into the Yucatan
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