Below normal temps expected through much of US this winter

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The 2017-18 winter forecast shows below normal temperatures for the northern and eastern U.S., with above normal temperatures in the southwestern and southcentral U.S. The winter precipitation forecast shows above normal precipitation across the northern U.S. and below normal precipitation across the southern U.S. The combination of cold and wet could result in an above normal snow season for parts of the northern U.S., including the large population centers of the northeastern U.S.

The predictors that go into the forecast include El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), October Eurasian snow cover extent, Arctic sea ice concentration, and an index that measures high latitude blocking. October Eurasian snow cover extent was above normal, Arctic sea ice extent is below normal, and there has been active blocking at high latitudes this fall. All indicators favor a cold winter in the eastern U.S. La Niña has also arrived, which favors a cold winter in the northwestern U.S. These indicators suggest that the polar vortex will break down later this winter, potentially unleashing an extended period of severe winter weather. Forecast date: November 16, 2017.

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