Banks lending appears to be low enough to indicate we are in a recession.

And the administration will move the goalposts for what constitutes a recession again shortly.

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And the administration will move the goalposts for what constitutes a recession again shortly.

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They're just going to gaslight and then double down on gaslighting. These people think words dictate reality so they'll keep repeating what they want you to believe instead of what is reality.

Credit card spending has collapsed

And has officially entered contraction territory

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There is one economic measure that cannot easily be gamed: tax revenue collections.

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Good point.

It's a leading indicator of disinflation/deflation which means lower growth. Fun part is the US Treasury is crowding out private sector investment right because risk free rates are higher than they've been in quite a while so the issue is going to be way worse than it typically should be.

That’s impossible. The definition of a recession is negative growth 2 quarters in a row when the president is a Republican.

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Credit card spending has collapsed

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My wife is doing her part to help reverse this

Glad to hear where about to find out more about aliens.

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Credit card spending has collapsed

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Maybe, but maybe not.



Consumers are still buying, but the rise in card delinquencies may be a signal that such buying levels are coming to an end (at least for a little while) as consumers face ~20% interest rates on those cards plus many having to resume their student loan repayments.

As someone else posted, the real tell is going to be tax revenues: currently they look to be ~5%-~6% lower than this time last year.