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Message
Are COVID Vaccine Efficacy Rates not correct?
Posted on 2/18/21 at 10:33 am
Posted on 2/18/21 at 10:33 am
An interesting case study right now is the country of Israel, which is ahead of the rest of the world by a wide margin when it comes to vaccine distribution.
As of yesterday, 47.7% of the entire population had received at least one dose of a COVID vaccine, and 31.8% of the country has been fully vaccinated (both doses).
Yet despite this, new cases (while falling) are still extremely high. Israel's 7-Day rolling average of new cases sits at 4,129 new cases/day. That equals 477 new cases out of each 1 Million in population.
The current rate/million of new cases in the United States is 238 new cases/day per 1 Million people.
So despite the fact that nearly half of Israel's population has been vaccinated, the disease is still spreading at a rate exactly double the rate it is in the United States.
I've not seen any news media talking about this. But you would think as vaccine distribution increased, you'd see a marked drop in new COVID cases. To be fair, new cases/day in Israel have dropped by more than 50% since the peak back in mid-January, so there has been a big improvement. But for new cases to still be spreading twice as fast as in the United States despite all those vaccinations is alarming.
As of yesterday, 47.7% of the entire population had received at least one dose of a COVID vaccine, and 31.8% of the country has been fully vaccinated (both doses).
Yet despite this, new cases (while falling) are still extremely high. Israel's 7-Day rolling average of new cases sits at 4,129 new cases/day. That equals 477 new cases out of each 1 Million in population.
The current rate/million of new cases in the United States is 238 new cases/day per 1 Million people.
So despite the fact that nearly half of Israel's population has been vaccinated, the disease is still spreading at a rate exactly double the rate it is in the United States.
I've not seen any news media talking about this. But you would think as vaccine distribution increased, you'd see a marked drop in new COVID cases. To be fair, new cases/day in Israel have dropped by more than 50% since the peak back in mid-January, so there has been a big improvement. But for new cases to still be spreading twice as fast as in the United States despite all those vaccinations is alarming.
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Posted on 2/18/21 at 10:34 am to BHMKyle
covid is over, snowpocalypse is the new thing
Posted on 2/18/21 at 10:37 am to BHMKyle
quote:
But for new cases to still be spreading twice as fast as in the United States despite all those vaccinations is alarming.
I don't think the comparison to the United States is relevant.
Certainly, the comparison to itself from prior to vaccine distribution is relevant.
It's possible that your conclusion is still correct. But, your reasoning is poor.
Posted on 2/18/21 at 10:38 am to BHMKyle
quote:
Yet despite this, new cases (while falling) are still extremely high. Israel's 7-Day rolling average of new cases sits at 4,129 new cases/day. That equals 477 new cases out of each 1 Million in population.
The current rate/million of new cases in the United States is 238 new cases/day per 1 Million people.
Population density of Israel: 1,036 per square mile
Population density of the USA: 93 per square mile
Posted on 2/18/21 at 10:40 am to BHMKyle
If people that are vaccinated were getting infected then it would be alarming.
If its not people getting vaccinated then its not alarming.
That means people simply are saying "frick it" and are no longer taking precautions.
If its not people getting vaccinated then its not alarming.
That means people simply are saying "frick it" and are no longer taking precautions.
Posted on 2/18/21 at 10:41 am to BHMKyle
Israel's daily new cases are around half of what they were a month ago.
Posted on 2/18/21 at 10:42 am to GetCocky11
also take into account we dont know if those being infected are those that have been vaccinated. theres too many missing data points to amke any reasonable conclusions from what you posted
This post was edited on 2/18/21 at 10:43 am
Posted on 2/18/21 at 10:44 am to BHMKyle
quote:
Vaccine Efficacy Rates not correct?
They were almost certainly overstated. My understanding is that in the trials they tested relatively few old people. Skewing the trials to younger, healthier people drove the efficacy % higher. I still think they will be good and effective. Just probably short of the 95% advertised. That may be what is playing out in Israel.
Posted on 2/18/21 at 10:50 am to BHMKyle
1. There is a difference between efficacy and effectiveness (trial conditions vs. real world implementation).
2. Probably shouldn't compare countries for various reasons.
3. "Cases" defined by a positive PCR test will be a misleading metric regardless. How has true "illness" changed?
4. Isn't there a time lag between vaccination and successful immune response?
2. Probably shouldn't compare countries for various reasons.
3. "Cases" defined by a positive PCR test will be a misleading metric regardless. How has true "illness" changed?
4. Isn't there a time lag between vaccination and successful immune response?
Posted on 2/18/21 at 10:50 am to BHMKyle
the efficacy numbers were marketing manipulation. the "testing" was designed to produce those numbers.
real world mileage will vary greatly
real world mileage will vary greatly
Posted on 2/18/21 at 10:56 am to Pedro
quote:
theres too many missing data points to amke any reasonable conclusions from what you posted
It's true we don't know if people who have received the vaccine are among the newly infected.
However, the scientists have been telling us that once 70% of the population reaches immunity, then we'd be at Heard Immunity which should cause the virus to more or less disappear.
Based on new cases during the last 90 days, 4.7% of Israel's entire population has contracted the virus within the past 90 days. Most countries are telling people who have natural immunity not to get the vaccine to prioritize those who need it. So if Israel is also doing this, then they are already over the 50% threshold in terms of Population with Immunity.
If half the country now has immunity and new cases are still accelerating at a rate that is double the United States, that's not a good sign.
Posted on 2/18/21 at 11:04 am to BHMKyle
Whats teh severity of these cases? are hospitalization rates decreasing? if people are getting sick but its less severe then does it really matter?
Posted on 2/18/21 at 11:18 am to BHMKyle
quote:
So despite the fact that nearly half of Israel's population has been vaccinated, the disease is still spreading at a rate exactly double the rate it is in the United States.
So you think the second dose is for shits and giggles?
Btw why did you compare to the US like it meant something, as opposed to the daily infection rate prior to vaccine became wide spread, which was around 7-8k new cases per day?
Posted on 2/18/21 at 11:23 am to BHMKyle
quote:
However, the scientists have been telling us that once 70% of the population reaches immunity, then we'd be at Heard Immunity which should cause the virus to more or less disappear
Scientists have been saying this. 70% is when herd immunity BEGINS to have an effect. You need far higher compliance to make it “more or less disappear”
quote:
Most countries are telling people who have natural immunity not to get the vaccine to prioritize those who need it.
It’s been long since determined simply being infected doesn’t guarantee natural immunity. Plenty of cases as being reinfected cases months after initial exposure.
Posted on 2/18/21 at 11:33 am to Volvagia
quote:
Btw why did you compare to the US like it meant something, as opposed to the daily infection rate prior to vaccine became wide spread
I actually noted both, thank you. Try reading.
Posted on 2/18/21 at 11:33 am to BHMKyle
Posted on 2/18/21 at 11:34 am to Volvagia
quote:
It’s been long since determined simply being infected doesn’t guarantee natural immunity. Plenty of cases as being reinfected cases months after initial exposure.
Which is why I noted only new cases in the previous 90 days which scientists say does offer sufficient natural immunity. Again, try reading.
Posted on 2/18/21 at 11:35 am to TheFlyingTiger
quote:
real world mileage will vary greatly
February 14, 2021
Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic COVID-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine
JERUSALEM (Reuters) - Israel’s largest healthcare provider on Sunday reported a 94% drop in symptomatic COVID-19 infections among 600,000 people who received two doses of the Pfizer’s vaccine in the country’s biggest study to date.
Health maintenance organization (HMO) Clalit, which covers more than half of all Israelis, said the same group was also 92% less likely to develop severe illness from the virus.
The comparison was against a group of the same size, with matching medical histories, who had not received the vaccine.
“It shows unequivocally that Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccine is extremely effective in the real world a week after the second dose, just as it was found to be in the clinical study,” said Ran Balicer, Clalit’s chief innovation officer.
LINK
This post was edited on 2/18/21 at 11:37 am
Posted on 2/18/21 at 11:47 am to BHMKyle
quote:
If half the country now has immunity and new cases are still accelerating at a rate that is double the United States, that's not a good sign.
Dumb.
Of the new cases, only 6% of them are from people 60 years old or older - and the demographic is the one approaching 100% vaccination. Younger demographics don’t nearly have that level of vaccination and that’s where the new cases are.
Posted on 2/18/21 at 11:51 am to BHMKyle
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