re: Alberto - Steadily Moving Inland

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That’s no bueno. 72 hours of downpours is good for no one.

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Yeah, but the GFS precipitation numbers aren't crazy. Got a swath of huge numbers in the Gulf but talking like 4-6" accumulated for Mobile, probably the hardest hit with the rain area.

Alberto never gets much stronger on this run either, suspecting it is ingesting dry air all the way through and it's really cutting the rain totals.

A weakish-moderate TS, but this scenario isn't pushing hurricane strength like a few models were doing either.

Read an excerpt from the NHC on another site about still potential hurricane development. Don't want that.

Anybody updates on the timeframe? Seems like it hits the coast now on Tuesday?

Thanks, sorry I just had gotten back in.

You are going to be pretty far away from any landfall unless it hits the Pacific NW

4am discussion

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Alberto is not very well organized this morning. Satellite images
indicate that the low-level center is located between widespread
showers and thunderstorms well to its northeast and patches of deep
convection to its south and east. The struggling cyclone continues
to battle westerly shear and dry air. A recent ASCAT pass indicated
that winds near the center were not particularly strong. The initial
intensity is held at a possibly generous 35 kt pending a sampling of
the circulation farther east by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft
in a few hours. Alberto remains subtropical given its sprawling
structure and involvement with an upper-level trough.

The subtropical storm has now turned north-northeastward at an
estimated speed of 6 kt. This general motion with a increase in
forward speed is expected throughout the day today, taking the
center of Alberto through the Yucatan Channel. A turn to the
northwest is forecast on Sunday as the storm rotates around a
developing mid- to upper-level low in the central Gulf of Mexico.
Alberto is predicted to be very near the northern Gulf Coast in
about 72 hours, and should then turn northward and northeastward
when it moves inland over the eastern U.S. The models are in
fairly good agreement this cycle, but they have trended a bit faster
from previous runs. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted
accordingly, and lies fairly close to the latest consensus aids.

Only slow strengthening is expected today due to the broad nature
of the system and continued influences of westerly shear and dry
air. There is an opportunity for more significant strengthening
tonight and Sunday when the shear is expected to lessen and
Alberto moves into a region of upper-level diffluence while it
remains over warm SSTs. The models also suggest that Alberto will
likely make a transition to a tropical storm in about 36 hours, and
that is reflected in the official forecast below. The official
intensity forecast is fairly similar to the previous one, and is in
line with the IVCN and HCCA consensus models.


The HMON model is now the only intensity guidance that makes
Alberto a hurricane before it reaches the coast. Although a
hurricane watch could still be required for a portion of the Gulf
Coast later today, the recent intensity guidance trends suggest
that this possibility is decreasing.

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00z plays an interesting game.

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Basically Alberto says frick yalls vacations

I still can’t img right

Colonel P with the patio furniture update.

For real though, why can’t I post pictures?

Define big. A foot? No. 3 or 4 inches? That’s even a maybe at this point. The vast majority of this storm is way east. And as it’s forecasted right this second, once it makes landfall, it’s expected to pick up speed and move on pretty quickly. As long as it doesn’t hang around for 3 or 4 days and move WELL west, any impacts we are looking at are fairly minimal. Obviously any of this can change at any time and I’m not suggesting you should plan a crawfish boil, but that’s what we’re looking at now.