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re: Alberto - Steadily Moving Inland

Posted on 5/25/18 at 11:46 am to
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 5/25/18 at 11:46 am to
LINK

Stormcast is up on proboards for the duration. There's your link
Posted by Bottom9
Arsenal Til I Die
Member since Jul 2010
25176 posts
Posted on 5/25/18 at 11:47 am to
Have a flight going out of New Orleans on Sunday at 11 AM. Hope it doesn't get cancelled. I doubt it will based on current projections.
Posted by Paul Allen
Montauk, NY
Member since Nov 2007
78304 posts
Posted on 5/25/18 at 11:48 am to
if it were me, I would switch the flight to Houston to be on the safe side.
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
40226 posts
Posted on 5/25/18 at 11:51 am to
OK some dude at that link you gave Duke says "From what the model is showing in respect to the millibars of the storm, we could be looking at a Category 1 or possibly 2 hitting Louisiana."

WTF? Surely he/she knows nothing??
Posted by Redbone
my castle
Member since Sep 2012
20704 posts
Posted on 5/25/18 at 11:54 am to
quote:


Just giving a heads up because he canned at least 5 retards last year during the season
Good time to get rid of more tards??
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21480 posts
Posted on 5/25/18 at 11:55 am to
HMON & HWRF are now running for Alberto.

12z HMON

Posted by GeauxTigers2525
Member since May 2017
102 posts
Posted on 5/25/18 at 11:56 am to
this is a good graph that can be used as a guide on pressures in general.

This post was edited on 5/25/18 at 11:58 am
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
66950 posts
Posted on 5/25/18 at 11:58 am to
This is just SE of New Orleans?
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
40226 posts
Posted on 5/25/18 at 11:58 am to
Right but someone on the other site that Duke linked was saying this could get to a 1 or 2 for Louisiana. Is that person drinking too early??

And how long do recon flights last? They provide info while in flight, correct??
This post was edited on 5/25/18 at 12:00 pm
Posted by thedrumdoctor
Gonzales,La
Member since Sep 2016
900 posts
Posted on 5/25/18 at 12:00 pm to
RDS, that model indicates a cat 1 correct?
Posted by GeauxTigers2525
Member since May 2017
102 posts
Posted on 5/25/18 at 12:00 pm to
probably yes, cat 1 would probably be the max imo
This post was edited on 5/25/18 at 12:03 pm
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 5/25/18 at 12:01 pm to
quote:

Right but someone on the other site that Duke linked was saying this could get to a 1 or 2 for Louisiana.


I mean, it's remotely possible if everything goes exactly right but I'm not expecting it. A moderate to strong TS would be pretty impressive for May anyway.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21480 posts
Posted on 5/25/18 at 12:03 pm to
quote:

From what the model is showing in respect to the millibars of the storm, we could be looking at a Category 1 or possibly 2 hitting Louisiana


Both the 00z Euro and 12z GFS show an environment that could allow strengthening as the system moves towards land. That is the main takeaway at this time.

The official NHC forecast is close to a Cat 1. They say this in the discussion:

quote:

By 72 hours, however, when the cyclone is forecast to move slowly over above-normal SSTs of 28-29C and into an upper-level col and weak wind shear, some additional strengthening could occur. For now, the intensity forecast will remain conservative due to possible intrusion of dry mid-level air before landfall, and closely follows the HCCA consensus model.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91837 posts
Posted on 5/25/18 at 12:03 pm to
Ahh, the good old HMON.

The craziest of the models.
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
43447 posts
Posted on 5/25/18 at 12:05 pm to
HMON with that 875 mb reading last year if I remember correctly
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91837 posts
Posted on 5/25/18 at 12:06 pm to
Yeah, was it Irma?

It had an all-time record storm landfalling in Miami. shite was nuts.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 5/25/18 at 12:06 pm to
quote:

HMON with that 875 mb reading last year if I remember correctly


That fricker had it down in the 850s IIRC.
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 5/25/18 at 12:07 pm to
Everyday the storm news on this system gets worse and worse. It needs to speed up and just go away at this point.
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
43447 posts
Posted on 5/25/18 at 12:08 pm to
quote:


That fricker had it down in the 850s IIRC.



I mean she did pull out the island's coast to sea

I hope we dont have a repeat of last year. I can't remember a year when so many low mb CAT 5 formed in the Atlantic Basin.
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
102530 posts
Posted on 5/25/18 at 12:09 pm to
quote:

Can we please keep the thread clean of retardedness.



You'd have better luck asking Iran to legalize gay marriage
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