re: Alberto - Steadily Moving Inland

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The flood threat is always a concern but I think maybe that tweet is not relaying the msg correctly. I wouldn't get too worked up just yet.

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Agreed. Potential is there, but no need to get worked up yet.

Any chance this is moving slow enough that we get to enjoy most of the weekend before the bad shite hits?

We are supposed to go tomorrow. Probably close to backing out. I can deal with sittting inside or heading to a bar all day. However it’s not worth driving back in that mess next week.

Need this sucker to starting heading a lot further West if we want the trip to be somewhat manageable.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 241726
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad surface low drifting slowly northward over the eastern
Yucatan Peninsula continues to become better defined. Although
showers and thunderstorms, along with strong gusty winds, remain
primarily over the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean
Sea, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive
for development through early next week, and a subtropical or
tropical depression is likely to form by late Saturday over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Friday
afternoon, if necessary. Locally heavy rainfall is forecast across
western Cuba and over much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast
into early next week. In addition, the threat of rip currents will
steadily increase along the Gulf coast from Florida westward to
Louisiana over the Memorial Day weekend. For more information on
these threats, please see products issued by your local weather
office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 800 PM EDT this evening.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Friday
afternoon,

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It has been going up every single day. I've seen several metereo dudes suggesting this thing is not going to develop into much but I think that would be a pretty silly prediction right now. Conditions a few days ago didn't look as favorable but every single few hours it appears more and more favors the development. That's why I'm curious as to how powerful this could get by the time it hits land then just lingers around? I know it has dry air and lots of shear to contend with but it seems to get more juice slowly each day.

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Water isn't super warm, I mean it's May. Additionally, shear plus dry air put a limit on how strong it can get. A tropical storm seems pretty likely but getting to hurricane strength seems really unlikely.

Lopsided mess of a TS is what we have to look forward to.

Needs to be like that tropical storm that hit us in June last year where dry air wrapped itself all around the storm amounting to very little even on rain. More worried about it stalling then hanging around in one area for flooding. Euro has been especially consistent with it just dangling around the Gulf Coast to basically shite on whoever it can for as long as it can. Good news for LA is they can probably take some rain with the dry grounds but we can't handle it all at once. New Orleans in low lying areas flooded just other day with an afternoon shower but I guess what's new in NO right?

Meh. I mean, it's a bit warm for this time of year but isn't going to support anything significant, especially in the face of the dry air intrusion and shear.

The projections the past few days have actually scaled back the wind shear and dry air in parts in the Gulf am I wrong?