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re: A question about flattening the curve
Posted on 4/13/20 at 8:02 am to Allthatfades
Posted on 4/13/20 at 8:02 am to Allthatfades
Guys if everyone goes to work and the hospitals open back up for normal business, our nurse heroes won’t have time to do choreographed dance videos on tik tok!
0
Posted on 4/13/20 at 8:11 am to SECdragonmaster
Saw the ICU nurses last week mid tik tok video. Can’t even pick up OT anymore because our census is so low. fricking ridiculous to keep things closed
Posted on 4/13/20 at 8:17 am to Allthatfades
quote:
A question about flattening the curve
One thing is for sure doing the lock in, we are FATTENING the curves. Diabetes and obesity statistics may reach new heights in the next few months.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 8:20 am to NoSaint
quote:There are millions of Karens who have been manipulated into believing they’re saving all the grandmas by staying home.
It doesn’t overall change numbers but the hospital system can handle it in a few waves instead of singular spike
Posted on 4/13/20 at 8:20 am to Allthatfades
Shhhh do not anger the Covid god. Questions are not tolerated. You cannot ask logical questions about the Covid god. You cannot question why the predictions (with social distancing) were so far off and yet we're still told we're not distancing enough. You cannot question anything. Just sit in your house not having any fun until this thing is over in October where you will get your vaccine card so you can buy food again. For a month until flu season opens. Then it's back in the hole.
This post was edited on 4/13/20 at 8:21 am
Posted on 4/13/20 at 8:28 am to Allthatfades
Each spike should be lower, slower than the one preceding it. Honestly, in most areas I don't think it'll take much to control it.
England is calculating an R0 of around 3 for the UK. Uses of public transportation is higher in the UK as it is all of Europe, it's also heavily weighted in London. The US is looking similar with the whack that NYC is taking.
So in theory, we'd have to reduce 2/3 of transmissions to keep this at this at a 1. This requires this list of actions:
(1) People to stay home if their sick. Seriously, if between 6-13% of transmission are asymptomatic/presymptomatic (as a few studies are suggesting) this would be the only step that would actually have to happen. Even being 50% effective at this would in theory hold an R0 of 1.
LINK
Regarding the economy, it wasn't going to be a bed of roses if we didn't shut down either. That alternate reality does not exist. We weren't going to just be humming along on April 13th while NY reporting several times their typical all-cause death rate for this past week and all of Europe is shutdown.
England is calculating an R0 of around 3 for the UK. Uses of public transportation is higher in the UK as it is all of Europe, it's also heavily weighted in London. The US is looking similar with the whack that NYC is taking.
So in theory, we'd have to reduce 2/3 of transmissions to keep this at this at a 1. This requires this list of actions:
(1) People to stay home if their sick. Seriously, if between 6-13% of transmission are asymptomatic/presymptomatic (as a few studies are suggesting) this would be the only step that would actually have to happen. Even being 50% effective at this would in theory hold an R0 of 1.
LINK
Regarding the economy, it wasn't going to be a bed of roses if we didn't shut down either. That alternate reality does not exist. We weren't going to just be humming along on April 13th while NY reporting several times their typical all-cause death rate for this past week and all of Europe is shutdown.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 9:39 am to Allthatfades
Straightening the curve, flattening the hills one day the mountain might gett’em but rona never will
Posted on 4/13/20 at 9:46 am to Allthatfades
Take a statistics class then come back and ask questions.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 9:47 am to Allthatfades
more people will be immune, so it will be handled like any other virus at that point
Posted on 4/13/20 at 9:49 am to ell_13
quote:
There are millions of Karens who have been manipulated into believing they’re saving all the grandmas by staying home.
Do you think having less patients to treat at a time will not result in lives being saved that otherwise would have been lost if everyone got sick at the same time?
Posted on 4/13/20 at 10:12 am to Titus Pullo
quote:
frick the curve.
That was my goal during my entire college career.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 10:14 am to Titus Pullo
quote:
I find myself wanting to believe the Q Thread posters are correct.
I find myself morbidly curious what they're saying, but I'm afraid of getting some of that crazy on me.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 10:19 am to LNCHBOX
quote:A hospital at capacity won’t kill the old people who get covid and would die anyway after 3 weeks. They would be transferred easily and with plenty of time to let them slowly fade away in an icu. It would possibly kill Britney who ran a red light while texting and had to be transported to a different hospital after being sent to the ER. Grandma dies regardless though.
Do you think having less patients to treat at a time will not result in lives being saved that otherwise would have been lost if everyone got sick at the same time?
Posted on 4/13/20 at 10:20 am to Allthatfades
quote:The purpose of flattening the curve was to prevent hospital overrun and to allow for allocation of needed resources.
Once everything opens back up and people start moving and traveling, won’t the numbers go back up? Then what are you going to do shut it down again? Might as well just open everything back up and deal with it. If you are elderly or have underlying conditions you should continue to take precautions, but let everyone else have our lives back
We have performed both those functions.
It was never to prevent all deaths/cases or to remain in lockdown until a vaccine.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 10:20 am to GetCocky11
quote:
Dissenting opinions are not tolerated. Just shut up and do what the government tells you.
The Karens on FB will shout you down and shame you.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 10:20 am to SECdragonmaster
quote:
Social distancing has allowed nurses in hospitals to work on the Tick Tok dance videos.
And you sir. What have you done?
Posted on 4/13/20 at 10:28 am to drdoct
quote:
Shhhh do not anger the Covid god. Questions are not tolerated. You cannot ask logical questions about the Covid god. You cannot question why the predictions (with social distancing) were so far off and yet we're still told we're not distancing enough. You cannot question anything. Just sit in your house not having any fun until this thing is over in October where you will get your vaccine card so you can buy food again. For a month until flu season opens. Then it's back in the hole.
I had to repost this. It’s just too funny to not read twice. It sums up my thoughts exactly.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 11:07 am to Allthatfades
quote:
Once everything opens back up and people start moving and traveling, won’t the numbers go back up? Then what are you going to do shut it down again? Might as well just open everything back up and deal with it. If you are elderly or have underlying conditions you should continue to take precautions, but let everyone else have our lives back
Yes, but the idea behind this was not to stop the virus. It was do do a few things:
1. Stop the exponential growth;
2. Keep the hospitalizations down at any given time so that the healthcare system was not overwhelmed;
3. Get better testing so that when we open back up, there can be point-of-care testing.
Remember, when all this started there was an 8+ day test. Now there is a 15 minute point-of-car test being rolled out. The next will be an antibody test. Also, the past month has been used to try different therapeutics on the most ill.
Yes, people will be infected after quarantine, but they will be able to better monitor hot spots and make targeted public policy about an area versus this blunt force mitigation that was needed one month ago.
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