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re: If Brock Bowers or Rome Odunze are still on the board at 14, do you take one of them?
Posted on 3/31/24 at 9:32 pm to Chalkywhite84
Posted on 3/31/24 at 9:32 pm to Chalkywhite84
quote:
How do you figure?
Theoretically he can do anything Bowers can do, but better, due to his physical talent advantages. Again, only in theory.
IIRC, in addition to his huge height advantage, his arms were freakishly long.
2
Posted on 3/31/24 at 10:01 pm to SlowFlowPro
how has the RAS report worked out for the Saints?
This post was edited on 3/31/24 at 10:02 pm
Posted on 3/31/24 at 10:15 pm to SlowFlowPro
In his first two seasons, Pitts played 27 games and saw the most off target throws in the NFL. He still had the 8th most yards for a TE in league history through 27 games. Last season was coming off the knee injuries, didn’t look all the way back. I wouldn’t write him off yet, Zac Rob will get him the ball in the right spot. Pitts is 3 months older than Sam Laporta. I’d bet Pitts still shoves
Posted on 4/1/24 at 12:22 am to LooseCannon22282
quote:
how has the RAS report worked out for the Saints?
I remember this argument after the draft last year with another poster. Branch had one of the lowest scores while Fosky’s was elite level when I was chirping passing on him was a big mistake. I don’t give two shits about RAS score when my eyes tell me he was the better player. Time has proven me right of course….
Meanwhile the Saints are giving out 13 million dollar contracts for an injured player for their mistake….
As far as Bowers, if the Saints pass on him they will regret it forever. He has the best tape for a te that I have ever seen in college. He’s a true football player. No way I’d pass on him unless it’s to move down for a haul, which we do need.
This post was edited on 4/1/24 at 12:34 am
Posted on 4/1/24 at 9:44 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:quote:
But your odds of getting a legit OL outside of the early 1st is way lower than any other position
Show your work.
2023 Highest graded OTs per PFF and draft pick:
1. Penei Sewell............7th
2. Trent Williams..........4th
3. Jordan Mailata.. 277th rugby/inter.pathway program
4. Tyron Smith.............9th
5. Tristan Wirfs.......... 13th
6. Braden Smith .......... 37th
7. Christian Darrishaw.... 23rd
8. Bernhard Raimann....... 77th
9. Taylor Decker.......... 16th
10. Morgan Moses.......... 66th
avg. excluding Mailata: 28
Current highest paid OTs Avg./year per sportrac.com
1. Laremy Tunsil...........13th
2. Andrew Thomas...........4th
3. Trent Williams..........4th
4. Lane Johnson............4th
5. Dion Dawkins............63rd
6. Jawaan Taylor...........35th
7. Ryan Ramczyk............32nd
8. Mike Onwenu.............182nd
9. Tytus Howard............23rd
10. Brian Oneil............62nd
avg.: 42
2023 Highest graded TEs per PFF and draft pick:
1. Kittle...............146th
2. Kelce................63rd
3. Andrews..............86th
4. Hockenson............8th
5. Laporta..............34th
6. Trey Mcbride.........55th
7. Taysom Hill......... undrafted
8. Jake Ferguson....... 129th
9. Kmet.................43rd
10. Tanner hudson ....... undrafted
11. evan engram......... 23rd
Avg. excluding UFA = 65
Highest paid TEs per sportrac
1. Waller.............204th
2. Hockenson..........8th
3. Kitlle.............146th
4. Kelce..............63rd
5. Goedert............49th
6. Andrews............86th
7. Engram.............23rd
8. Njoku............. 29th
9. Kmet.............. 43rd
10. Schultz.......... 137th
avg.= 79
Only one top 10 tight end was drafted in the early 1st round. I understand Bowers is special but this should show you how valuable OTs are compared to TEs. Its really not comparable.
Posted on 4/1/24 at 9:51 am to High Life
quote:
Avg. excluding UFA = 65
Lazy arse
But seriously, that is pretty interesting info. I personally would not put much thought in the highest paid because so much of that can be swayed by timing of contract, plus rookie deals would/could change some of this.
But interesting info either way.
Edit: As soon as I hit submit, I realized Lane Johnson wasn't in the PFF top 10 as a 2nd team All-Pro. Is Sewell the only RT in the top 10, or is Lane an outlier?
This post was edited on 4/1/24 at 9:53 am
Posted on 4/1/24 at 10:06 am to Weekend Warrior79
quote:
quote:quote:
Avg. excluding UFA = 65
Lazy arse
I was excluding Taysom because he's not really a TE and Tanner Hudson because he had such little production idk why pff included him. Probably should've just went off of fantasy stats for TEs but whatever. Point is if you want a good O-line you better be willing to spend some draft capital. Bowers is a sexy pick but I just don't like investing so much into a tight-end.
This post was edited on 4/1/24 at 10:08 am
Posted on 4/1/24 at 10:15 am to Weekend Warrior79
quote:
I personally would not put much thought in the highest paid because so much of that can be swayed by timing of contract
I mean you can just tell by looking at the highest paid TEs list that those are pretty much all of the best tight-ends in the league. Hockenson is the only one who was an early first rounder.
Posted on 4/1/24 at 10:38 am to High Life
quote:
I mean you can just tell by looking at the highest paid TEs list that those are pretty much all of the best tight-ends in the league. Hockenson is the only one who was an early first rounder.
Yup. Just go back to all the TEs drafted in the first round in the past 20 years- Besides Dallas Clark, Hockenson has been the most successful and hes on his second team. I’m not saying Bowers can’t be special but if any of the top OTs are still left you have to draft them over Bowers not just based off need but also in regards likelihood of them panning out.
Posted on 4/1/24 at 11:48 am to High Life
quote:
2023 Highest graded OTs per PFF and draft pick:
1. Penei Sewell............7th
2. Trent Williams..........4th
3. Jordan Mailata.. 277th rugby/inter.pathway program
4. Tyron Smith.............9th
5. Tristan Wirfs.......... 13th
6. Braden Smith .......... 37th
7. Christian Darrishaw.... 23rd
8. Bernhard Raimann....... 77th
9. Taylor Decker.......... 16th
10. Morgan Moses.......... 66th
a. You said legit
b. You said "early 1st"
Of that top 10, 3 were drafted in the early 1st (Sewell, Smith, and Williams), and that is the elite of the elite...more than just "legit".
c. You said "any position". My response to that wasn't about TEs
Posted on 4/1/24 at 12:35 pm to Townedrunkard
I feel like people don’t know what RAS is.
You realize this is just quantifying numbers that teams have used for decades, right?
Makes it easier to categorize guys but this isn’t some breakthrough metric or anything
You realize this is just quantifying numbers that teams have used for decades, right?
Makes it easier to categorize guys but this isn’t some breakthrough metric or anything
Posted on 4/1/24 at 12:38 pm to SlowFlowPro
Ok slo bo do your homework then. You’ll find that lineman are taken early. Lineman get paid. It’s common knowledge. It’s not that they can’t bust, any position can bust. It’s harder to find “sleeper” linemen. They’re either big, fat, strong, and fast or they’re not. You can’t hide those kind of humans under a rock. There’s way more skill position players that can fall through the cracks.
Posted on 4/1/24 at 12:45 pm to High Life
quote:
. It’s harder to find “sleeper” linemen.
I would imagine 'sleeper' rbs are hard to find.
quote:
They’re either big, fat, strong, and fast or they’re not.
Still thinking bout this one
Posted on 4/1/24 at 1:01 pm to High Life
quote:
2023 Highest graded OTs per PFF and draft pick:
1. Penei Sewell............7th
2. Trent Williams..........4th
3. Jordan Mailata.. 233rd
4. Tyron Smith.............9th
5. Tristan Wirfs.......... 13th
6. Braden Smith .......... 37th
7. Christian Darrishaw.... 23rd
8. Bernhard Raimann....... 77th
9. Taylor Decker.......... 16th
10. Morgan Moses.......... 66th
Avg 48.5
[quote]Current highest paid OTs Avg./year per sportrac.com
1. Laremy Tunsil...........13th
2. Andrew Thomas...........4th
3. Trent Williams..........4th
4. Lane Johnson............4th
5. Dion Dawkins............63rd
6. Jawaan Taylor...........35th
7. Ryan Ramczyk............32nd
8. Mike Onwenu.............182nd
9. Tytus Howard............23rd
10. Brian Oneil............62nd
avg.: 42
How is an average in the 40s supporting a 1st rd OT? Looks like pick 45 is ripe for one
Posted on 4/1/24 at 1:03 pm to GynoSandberg
How is that the "early 1st"?
Posted on 4/1/24 at 1:15 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
You said "any position". My response to that wasn't about TEs
The thread is about Bowers and Odunze and the #14 pick. "Legit" is a relative term. If we are talking about the #14 pick a want a very "legit" player, maybe a potential top 10 at their respective position one day. Linemen have a better chance of success > skill position.
1st rounder hit rate
Posted on 4/1/24 at 1:20 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
How is that the "early 1st"?
Sorry man you got me!! 13th and 16th aren't early 1st round, those are in the MIDDLE of the first round. I have to do better next time
Posted on 4/1/24 at 1:23 pm to GynoSandberg
quote:
How is an average in the 40s supporting a 1st rd OT? Looks like pick 45 is ripe for one
I'll try explaining it to you but I can't understand it for you.
1st round linemen still have a 20ish % chance of busting (which is actually relatively low), when you move that it into the later rounds it grows exponentially. Just because the average is in the 40s doesn't mean you want to bet on that number. When you move into the later rounds the ceiling for that player lowers and chance for busting rises.
This post was edited on 4/1/24 at 1:28 pm
Posted on 4/1/24 at 1:26 pm to High Life
Its the fat ones I bet. Always go for the fat ones.
Posted on 4/1/24 at 1:35 pm to High Life
quote:
A “hit” was defined as a drafted player who signs a second contract with the team that they played their rookie contract on.
Cesar Ruiz would be considered a hit
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