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re: If Brock Bowers or Rome Odunze are still on the board at 14, do you take one of them?

Posted on 4/7/24 at 11:42 am to
Posted by LooseCannon22282
Mobile
Member since May 2008
34799 posts
Posted on 4/7/24 at 11:42 am to
Posted by GynoSandberg
Bay St Louis, MS
Member since Jan 2006
73379 posts
Posted on 4/7/24 at 1:24 pm to
quote:

And you realize he played a lot more basketball than football in college right? Most players who only have 17 catches in their collegiate career dont get drafted but Jimmy did.


It does not equate to a guy taking his first TE rep in the NFL. Please stop

quote:

I mean we can do that for a lot of positions on this team. Thats why we’re not a good football team


We use draft capital and money of substance address other positions. We don’t put bandaids on them by moving guys from other positions

quote:

Yes and I just told you his rank as a TE according to PFF. Meaning there is potential there if we used him more at the position.



I’d like to use him more. He’s still not the answer to the TE problem

quote:

So a TE that had over 500 yards receiving and 7 TDs in a season is a solid second option for you? Sure- your standards not mine.
]


Yes. The fact that you’re hanging on a 500 yard season from 2022 speaks volume. You’re going to hang your hat on that to dub this guy a TE1



quote:

And you don’t think having an offense or offense coordinator scheme and use the TE properly has nothing to do with Waller having those seasons? I think your groomed to think that an off coordinator or scheme has nothing to do with how a TE produces.



Every good TE we had under Carmichael was a big part of the offense. Again you’re punking yourself
Posted by Pels_Yaz
Member since Apr 2023
11544 posts
Posted on 4/7/24 at 2:56 pm to
quote:

It does not equate to a guy taking his first TE rep in the NFL. Please stop


Lol go back and read why I brought up Graham and then respond accordingly.

quote:

We use draft capital and money of substance address other positions. We don’t put bandaids on them by moving guys from other positions


So signing Foster was not using money? Most NFL teams dont sit there investing high end draft capital and money at TE. You brought up Waller- he was out of the league drug addict that the Raiders signed for cheap.

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I’d like to use him more. He’s still not the answer to the TE problem

Whats your solution drafting a first round TE, which has historically shown not to be thr solution??

quote:

Yes. The fact that you’re hanging on a 500 yard season from 2022 speaks volume. You’re going to hang your hat on that to dub this guy a TE1


Yes 2022- was the year before last. Lets not act like it was 5 years ago. Again whats your solution?

quote:

Every good TE we had under Carmichael was a big part of the offense. Again you’re punking yourself


Last year it wasn’t. So no Im not “punking myself”- what are you in middle school?

You act like you want the Saints to invest heavily at TE? How? They signed Foster last year? They’ve drafted before guys like Trautman. What do you want them to exactly do?? Premier TEs aren’t on free agent market. You can hope Bowers drops- but the track record of TEs drafted high in first isnt great. Not exactly sure what you want them to do??



Posted by GynoSandberg
Bay St Louis, MS
Member since Jan 2006
73379 posts
Posted on 4/7/24 at 3:13 pm to
quote:

Whats your solution drafting a first round TE, which has historically shown not to be thr solution??


quote:

Again whats your solution?


quote:

What do you want them to exactly do??


quote:

Not exactly sure what you want them to do??


You are posting in a 17 page thread about hypothetically having the choice to draft Brock Bowers. If it hasn’t been clear the last 17 pages, I’d draft Brock bowers

Nothing you’ve said has made a lick of sense. You either lack common logic or are being intentionally obtuse, relying on straw men and false equivalencies to arrive at some irrelevant point.
Posted by Pels_Yaz
Member since Apr 2023
11544 posts
Posted on 4/7/24 at 3:38 pm to
quote:

You are posting in a 17 page thread about hypothetically having the choice to draft Brock Bowers. If it hasn’t been clear the last 17 pages, I’d draft Brock bowers


Which historically has shown not to be the solution. Which I been saying on this whole 17 page thread.

quote:

Nothing you’ve said has made a lick of sense. You either lack common logic or are being intentionally obtuse, relying on straw men and false equivalencies to arrive at some irrelevant point.


You meanwhile keep pushing an agenda of drafting Bowers- while ignoring the fact that majority of first round TEs have not been remotely as productive as you assume they may be. Yet you conveniently ignore this fact.

You meanwhile like to attack the individual rather than the argument- usually what happens when you don’t have a counter to the fact again majority of TEs drafted high in the first round are not productive. Your counter to that is a ridiculous argument of “oh Bowers is different you cant compare him to other TEs.” So now Bowers is so elite that comparing him to other TEs is not accurate? Come on man your pulling stuff out of your arse. But go ahead call me a straw man or obtuse or whatever fricking shape you want but the fact is you have no argument against that first round TEs basically dont live up to their status- other than hes different.

You whine and cry about Saints not investing in TEs- when they have- they just havent panned out. Very few of the top TEs in the league were high first round picks- another fact you conveniently ignore. But wait here comes Gyno’s great counter argument- BOWERS IS DIFFERENT LOL. Thats the whole counter you have and its the most ridiculous argument ever. Its literally third grader logic of someone who can’t pinpoint anything but is obsessed with getting something.
Posted by htran90
BC
Member since Dec 2012
31462 posts
Posted on 4/8/24 at 5:34 am to
quote:

You meanwhile keep pushing an agenda of drafting Bowers- while ignoring the fact that majority of first round TEs have not been remotely as productive as you assume they may be. Yet you conveniently ignore this fact.



Majority of 1st rounders don't have his tape, but have measurables. Aside from Mayer, theres no top 2 round TE in the past 8 years who clearly matches his production.

He's just as big (6'3, 240lbs) as guys like Kincaid, LaPorta, Mayer last year; but more production.

3 years: 175 receptions, 2538 yards, 26 TDs

vs
Kincaid: 107 receptions, 1414 yards, 16 TDs
LaPorta: 153 receptions, 1786 yards, 5 TDs (4 years)
Mayer: 180 receptions, 2099 yards, 18 TDs

Or guys like
Hockenson: 73 receptions, 1080 yards, 9 TDs (RS 3 years)
Hurst: 100 receptions, 1281 yards, 3 TDs
Pitts: 100 receptions, 1492 yards, 18 TDs

He's not just a receiver, he is a willing blocker as well. He has upside to be George Kittle and Travis Kelce.

That being said --- would I take a top end OT over him, absolutely. But if they're off the board and you're getting the 4-5th best OLineman, you gotta think REALLY hard because it might be worth it (I.e. Penning)
Posted by Handsome Pete
Member since Apr 2019
1850 posts
Posted on 4/8/24 at 7:10 am to
quote:

if they're off the board and you're getting the 4-5th best OLineman, you gotta think REALLY hard because it might be worth it


This is a not unreasonable take, though in that scenario I'd rather trade down and get more picks from someone who wants Bowers. There's not always a trade partner, though.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
452880 posts
Posted on 4/8/24 at 7:27 am to
Why pass on the final elite prospect in an area of need?

We need elite players
Posted by goatmilker
Castle Anthrax
Member since Feb 2009
71070 posts
Posted on 4/8/24 at 7:46 am to
Are you just trying to kick off another 17 pages
Posted by Suntiger
STG or BR or somewhere else
Member since Feb 2007
34653 posts
Posted on 4/8/24 at 8:16 am to





Or, depending on your age:

Posted by High Life
Member since Dec 2014
3117 posts
Posted on 4/8/24 at 9:30 am to
quote:

Why pass on the final elite prospect in an area of need?

We need elite players


There are at least 3 elite d-linemen. 4-5 elite o-linemen. 3-4 elite wide receivers. And there's probably going to be 4-5 QBs taken before us. We will be in line for an elite player thats not a tight end. Bowers is the best tight-end in the draft and a great athlete but the truth is tight-ends are not as valuable as other positions.



700 yards and 6 touchdowns is not the kind of production that warrants a #14 ovr. pick. That isn't enough production to put him as a top 100 WR in CFB. In 2022, Travis Kelce had enough production to be considered a top 5 WR in the NFL. Bowers is a hype machine more than he's a producer.
Posted by Weekend Warrior79
Member since Aug 2014
19309 posts
Posted on 4/8/24 at 9:44 am to
Was curious, and my 9am meeting was pushed back to 10am; so looked at the OTs drafted between 2013 - 2017 with some interesting data. Between 2013-2017 there were actually 20 players drafted with the "T" position next to their names, 4 are currently playing as Guards. Therefore, based on the definition of hit rate, the hit rate for OT should be 55% (11 out of 20).

2013:
Eric Fisher & Lane Johnson were hits
Luke Joeckely was a miss and out of the league in 5 years
DJ Fluker was drafted as a T, but plays RG. His contract was terminated after 4 years
Justin Pugh was drafted as a T, but plays LG. Signed his 2nd contract with Arizona, but is actually back with the NYG (who drafted him)

2014:
Jake Matthews & Taylor Lewan were hits
Greg Robinson was a miss because he was traded
JaWuan James was a miss because his 2nd contract was with Denver

2015:
Brandon Scherff (drafted as OT, plays OG), Peat & Humphries were hits
Ereck Flowers was drafted as an OT, but played LG. He was a miss as the NYG terminated his contract after 4 years, played until 2020
Cedric Ogbuehi was a miss because his 2nd contract was with Jax, he's still bouncing around the league

2016:
Ronnie Stanley & Teylor Decker were both hits
Jack Conklin was a miss because his 2nd contract was with Clev, still paying
Laremy Tunsil was a miss because he was traded to Hou in his 1st contract

2017:
Garett Bolles & Ramczyk were both hits

Don't think this changes the opinions of anyone in this thread; just some interesting data...and satisfies my curiosity
Posted by GynoSandberg
Bay St Louis, MS
Member since Jan 2006
73379 posts
Posted on 4/8/24 at 9:57 am to
Good enough production to lead two Natty teams and another 14-1 team in yards and TDs three years in a row. Over guys top 3 RD WRs like George Pickens, Adonai Mitchell, Ladd and Jermaine Burton

quote:

700 yards and 6 touchdowns is not the kind of production that warrants a #14 ovr. pick. That isn't enough production to put him as a top 100 WR in CFB. In 2022, Travis Kelce had enough production to be considered a top 5 WR in the NFL. Bowers is a hype machine more than he's a producer.


WRs run substantially more routes, thus see more targets, which leads to more “production”

Yard per Route Run. Receiving yards divided by routes ran. Highly predictive stat, your NFL leaders for 2023 are Tyreek, Nico Collin’s, Aiyuk, Amron St Brown, Nacala, Lamb, Kelce

quote:

Age 18 Season

1. Brock Bowers (3.01)
2. Xavier Worthy (2.61)
3. Malik Nabers (1.95)
4. Brian Thomas Jr. (1.40)

Age 19 Season

1. Malik Nabers (2.44)
2. Brock Bowers (2.37)
3. Troy Franklin (2.34)
4. Keon Coleman (2.07)

Age 20 Season

1. Malik Nabers (3.64)
2. Troy Franklin (3.32)
3. Marvin Harrison Jr. (3.18)
4. Brock Bowers (2.65)



You can call him a hype machine, meanwhile NFL teams are dreaming of feeding him 120 targets a season

Also had 200 yards rushing and another 5 rush TDs his career at UGA
This post was edited on 4/8/24 at 10:01 am
Posted by GynoSandberg
Bay St Louis, MS
Member since Jan 2006
73379 posts
Posted on 4/8/24 at 10:16 am to
If you wanted to keep going

2018 : 1.22 Andre Dillard (bust)
2019: 1.10 Jedrick Willis (bust), 1.11 Betcon (bust), 1.28 Isaiah Wilson (bust)
2020: 1.14 Vera Tucker (bust), 1.17 Leatherwood (bust)
2021: 1.7 Evan Neal (bust), 1.19 Penning (bust)


Posted by Suntiger
STG or BR or somewhere else
Member since Feb 2007
34653 posts
Posted on 4/8/24 at 10:23 am to
quote:

2015:
Brandon Scherff (drafted as OT, plays OG), Peat & Humphries were hits



Ehhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, maybe not a hit. A walk or tip foul at best.
Posted by Weekend Warrior79
Member since Aug 2014
19309 posts
Posted on 4/8/24 at 10:55 am to
I agree, but with how they defined what is considered a hit, Peat is a hit. I assume the logic is by simply using "signing a 2nd contract " as a hit, it eliminates as much subjectivity as possible.

For every Peat, and players drafted in the 1st but become career backups with the team they were drafted; you also have players like Greg Robinson, Tunsil who have become staples in their lines but are considered misses because they were traded
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
452880 posts
Posted on 4/8/24 at 10:58 am to
quote:

4-5 elite o-linemen

There are 0 elite OT prospects, though.

quote:

3 elite d-linemen

The best has major injury concerns. I don't know if we can pair Newton with Bresee. Teams would just run all over us.

Turner is not an elite prospect. He's an elite athlete.

quote:

3-4 elite wide receivers.

3. All will be gone but Odunze is in OP and we should take him over Bowers or any OL/DL if he somehow falls.

quote:

Bowers is a hype machine more than he's a producer.

...wow
Posted by High Life
Member since Dec 2014
3117 posts
Posted on 4/8/24 at 11:08 am to
quote:

You can call him a hype machine, meanwhile NFL teams are dreaming of feeding him 120 targets a season


Exactly my point. Teams were dreaming about Kyle Pitts too. Kyle Pitts had 770 yards and 12 TDs his senior year. BB is a stud but there will undoubtedly be someone at 14 who is just as elite at a more valuable position.

quote:

Yard per Route Run. Receiving yards divided by routes ran. Highly predictive stat, your NFL leaders for 2023 are Tyreek, Nico Collin’s, Aiyuk, Amron St Brown, Nacala, Lamb, Kelce


"TEs run less routes" isn't a good argument for drafting them higher. He produces more per given opportunity but we can't give him as much opportunity because he's a TE. You are describing exactly why tight ends aren't drafted early, and why they aren't paid as much. There are at least 70 OL/DL/WRs that are paid more than the highest paid TE. Think about that for a second
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
452880 posts
Posted on 4/8/24 at 11:14 am to
quote:

Teams were dreaming about Kyle Pitts too.

Pitts is nothing like Bowers, though.

Bowers can run jet sweep effectively. Pitts can't.

Bowers can be dominant from the slot. Pitts can't

quote:

but there will undoubtedly be someone at 14 who is just as elite

But there won't be

This post was edited on 4/8/24 at 11:15 am
Posted by High Life
Member since Dec 2014
3117 posts
Posted on 4/8/24 at 11:33 am to
quote:

Bowers can run jet sweep effectively


Ok cool. This is the NFL. Jet sweeps don't get you drafted in the 1st round. lol

quote:

quote:
quote:

but there will undoubtedly be someone at 14 who is just as elite


But there won't be


Well thats just your opinion. One of Verse, Latham, or Dallas Turner could be there at 14. All have better grades than Bowers.
This post was edited on 4/8/24 at 11:41 am
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