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Posted on 3/17/22 at 2:33 pm to Babble
You dont understand that books move lines because of people betting and information they receive.
Also you just suggested if they knew the falcons were getting watson they would make them -1500 to win the super bowl.
Books absolutely take positions based on information they receive or numbers or positions
Also you just suggested if they knew the falcons were getting watson they would make them -1500 to win the super bowl.
Books absolutely take positions based on information they receive or numbers or positions
Posted on 3/17/22 at 2:34 pm to josh336
This has been a thing in other countries where betting is legal for a while now, and it is telling of absolutely nothing.
Posted on 3/17/22 at 2:34 pm to josh336
I’m saying that’s not why it’s moving right now. If they had actual information that we didn’t, the odds would not be 25-1. Those are still insane odds.
Posted on 3/17/22 at 2:34 pm to Babble
quote:
Look into how a bookie actually makes their money. This shite means nothing.
If the bookie knew the falcons were getting Watson, the line would be -15000 or some bullshite.
What exactly do you think this thread title is talking about?
Posted on 3/17/22 at 2:35 pm to Ed Osteen
quote:
Draftkings just dropped falcons from 70-1 to 25-1
That’s the thread title. 25-1 odds.
Posted on 3/17/22 at 2:36 pm to Ed Osteen
I have learned the hard way over the years that Vegas rarely loses. If they are dropping the odds this drastic, they know something.
I 100% believe that he was leaning NOLA and may have even agreed last night (hence our odds shift and the restructures) and changed his mind over night.
I 100% believe that he was leaning NOLA and may have even agreed last night (hence our odds shift and the restructures) and changed his mind over night.
Posted on 3/17/22 at 2:36 pm to Babble
quote:
If they had actual information that we didn’t, the odds would not be 25-1. Those are still insane odds.
This is about super bowl futures man
Posted on 3/17/22 at 2:36 pm to josh336
meh
Posted on 3/17/22 at 2:37 pm to Babble
quote:
I’m saying that’s not why it’s moving right now. If they had actual information that we didn’t, the odds would not be 25-1. Those are still insane odds.
Ehhh the Falcons still stink even with Watson, and Watson won 4 games his last year playing in Houston. I wouldn't say the Falcons currently are much better.
I doubt they would go much higher than 20-1, barring a bunch of other moves.
Posted on 3/17/22 at 2:37 pm to saints5021
quote:
have learned the hard way over the years that Vegas rarely loses.
How would they lose if they reduce the odds for a future bet? Wouldn’t they lose if the odds were very high and he was traded to that team?
Meaning set both teams at the same odds so you can’t lose?
Posted on 3/17/22 at 2:38 pm to josh336
I feel like the NFL is doing this similarly to how CNN/FOX constantly stoke certain things. For the eyes.
I'm betting the decision has been made for a least a day. They can stretch it out.
I'm betting the decision has been made for a least a day. They can stretch it out.
Posted on 3/17/22 at 2:39 pm to Babble
quote:
I’m saying that’s not why it’s moving right now. If they had actual information that we didn’t, the odds would not be 25-1. Those are still insane odds.
Dude, you know hes talking about superbowl odds right?
Posted on 3/17/22 at 2:40 pm to josh336
A bookie does not want one team to have a decent size of the share of bets because they make less money if that team wins the future.
They want a more even distribution across teams because that is how they make the most money.
I love how you’re telling me I have no clue what I’m talking about and clearly have no fricking clue what you’re talking about.
They want a more even distribution across teams because that is how they make the most money.
I love how you’re telling me I have no clue what I’m talking about and clearly have no fricking clue what you’re talking about.
Posted on 3/17/22 at 2:41 pm to Babble
You clearly dont bet if you think close to 50% of money is put on each side of bets
Posted on 3/17/22 at 2:44 pm to Babble
quote:
Betting Lines are decided by the behavior of the people betting. People are hammering the falcons, that’s why the line is moving.
Look into how a bookie actually makes their money. This shite means nothing.
If the bookie knew the falcons were getting Watson, the line would be -15000 or some bull shite.
You're not completely wrong, however, not correct either. Futures are typically a one way bet, ie you can't bet no for a team to win. Also these books are super risk adverse, especially shitty books like DK. So slashing the price on the falcons doesn't hurt them. They probably did take a few bets of people just taking good value in the chance they get Watson.
A better book Circa that let's you bet the no on a future still has falcons at +8500 currently.
Posted on 3/17/22 at 2:46 pm to josh336
babble sort of has a point. public sentiment seems to believe Falcons are the favorite and likely betting accordingly. Adjusting the line limits their exposure if he does go to Atlanta, Vegas "knows" when it comes to shite like this is usually a nothing burger
look at their coaching change odds frequently.
look at their coaching change odds frequently.
Posted on 3/17/22 at 2:46 pm to Seeing Grey
They’re dropping their odds because they’re risk adverse and a lot of people are hammering the falcons at super high odds.
You’re agreeing with what I’m saying.
You’re agreeing with what I’m saying.
Posted on 3/17/22 at 2:47 pm to Babble
Look my point is that vegas does not know shite because if they did they would not be giving +2500 odds lol
This post was edited on 3/17/22 at 2:47 pm
Posted on 3/17/22 at 2:47 pm to BilJ
quote:
babble sort of has a point. public sentiment seems to believe Falcons are the favorite and likely betting accordingly. Adjusting the line limits their exposure if he does go to Atlanta, Vegas "knows" when it comes to shite like this is usually a nothing burger
look at their coaching change odds frequently.
This might be valid, but if it is, you can probably cross off any "gains" we made yesterday when our line dropped. Because Public sentiment yesterday, especially in the media, was in our favor
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