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Concerning stat for Shough: 6.3 YPA
Posted on 10/13/26 at 2:36 pm
Posted on 10/13/26 at 2:36 pm
This is something that is often overlooked, but it is one of the most telling stats of a QB's production. After the Ravens win I was pointing out how Shough's YPA was quite low in the low to mid 7's, which is indicative of him being a check-down passer. Yes he will hit the occasional 15+ toss, but it's quite a low percentage of his throws that go this distance.
The next 3 games? 6.1, 6 and 3.8. Yikes. That is awful.
I do think a significant part of this is his fear to take shots downfield. There have been a number of times where he does have time in the pocket yet still choses to throw to his check-down guy in the flat. However, I do believe the biggest factor causing this is the awful OL play in front of him along with the play designs. The reality is he does not have time to allow his WRs to complete their routes, and he is way too often having to tuck and move in order to avoid a sack. This further causes a lack of faith in his protection, which leads to him feeling a need to get rid of the ball too soon even on those rare moments when he actually does have a pocket to work out of.
What's really odd about this is the lack of screens in these pass attempts. Screens do attribute to lower YPA as they get stuffed when unsuccessful, but the low use rate of them shows even more so how he is throwing at check-downs way too often.
This means defenses have little to no fear of him threatening downfield. They are going to continue to load up on him knowing that they will get to him quickly without any regards of their DBs getting contested deep.
I really would like to see how this continues with him playing in a clean pocket. If this is more of a Shough issue, then I am unsure he is the QB of the future. Mistake me not; I do believe he is at this point, but I can't deny this glaring deficiency in his game.
For comparison, last year his final YPA was 7.3. Again, that is not a good stat for a franchise QB. This needs to be 8+, or at least close to the 8 mark.
The next 3 games? 6.1, 6 and 3.8. Yikes. That is awful.
I do think a significant part of this is his fear to take shots downfield. There have been a number of times where he does have time in the pocket yet still choses to throw to his check-down guy in the flat. However, I do believe the biggest factor causing this is the awful OL play in front of him along with the play designs. The reality is he does not have time to allow his WRs to complete their routes, and he is way too often having to tuck and move in order to avoid a sack. This further causes a lack of faith in his protection, which leads to him feeling a need to get rid of the ball too soon even on those rare moments when he actually does have a pocket to work out of.
What's really odd about this is the lack of screens in these pass attempts. Screens do attribute to lower YPA as they get stuffed when unsuccessful, but the low use rate of them shows even more so how he is throwing at check-downs way too often.
This means defenses have little to no fear of him threatening downfield. They are going to continue to load up on him knowing that they will get to him quickly without any regards of their DBs getting contested deep.
I really would like to see how this continues with him playing in a clean pocket. If this is more of a Shough issue, then I am unsure he is the QB of the future. Mistake me not; I do believe he is at this point, but I can't deny this glaring deficiency in his game.
For comparison, last year his final YPA was 7.3. Again, that is not a good stat for a franchise QB. This needs to be 8+, or at least close to the 8 mark.
This post was edited on 10/13/26 at 2:38 pm
Posted on 10/13/26 at 2:38 pm to Midget Death Squad
He's taken multiple shots to Lance downfield but he sucks so far
Posted on 10/13/26 at 2:40 pm to Proximo
He has taken some, and they have been off the mark. When watching the games though, I am constantly frustrated at how few his attempts are. It's what's been having me check these stats, because I look to confirm if what my eyes are seeing is correct. The stats have been proving my observations as accurate.
Also there have been some drops that effect this YPA. With that said, the guys in the 8+ range will have drops and misses as well. They are throwing the ball downfield more often which raises that overall average for them.
Also there have been some drops that effect this YPA. With that said, the guys in the 8+ range will have drops and misses as well. They are throwing the ball downfield more often which raises that overall average for them.
This post was edited on 10/13/26 at 2:42 pm
Posted on 10/13/26 at 3:03 pm to Midget Death Squad
When he has a clean pocket and time he seems to push it downfield plenty.
Unfortunately there are so many deficiencies in our offense it’s hard to diagnose. Without banks the o line has been overrun the last 9 quarters. Our receiving corps is very limited without Tyson, especially in deep routes. You basically have just Olave and if he runs a deep route then there’s no intermediate safety blanket.
Biggest reason is Kellen’s offense. He plays it super conservative early in games and early in downs, forcing Shough into a bunch of third and longs where the defense is playing to take away anything deep. No threat of the run game and play action to open up easy downfield passes which is how teams generate explosives in 2026.
Rams and bills last night. Almost as every deep pass play was play action.
Unfortunately there are so many deficiencies in our offense it’s hard to diagnose. Without banks the o line has been overrun the last 9 quarters. Our receiving corps is very limited without Tyson, especially in deep routes. You basically have just Olave and if he runs a deep route then there’s no intermediate safety blanket.
Biggest reason is Kellen’s offense. He plays it super conservative early in games and early in downs, forcing Shough into a bunch of third and longs where the defense is playing to take away anything deep. No threat of the run game and play action to open up easy downfield passes which is how teams generate explosives in 2026.
Rams and bills last night. Almost as every deep pass play was play action.
Posted on 10/13/26 at 3:25 pm to Midget Death Squad
Two things come to mind immediately.
If your throwing quickly you're throwing short.
If you're throwing shorter routes do you have the equipment to throw longer?
If your throwing quickly you're throwing short.
If you're throwing shorter routes do you have the equipment to throw longer?
Posted on 10/13/26 at 3:32 pm to goatmilker
Shough leads the NFL in pressured drop backs with 89 through 5 games. Even when you aren’t actually under pressure that constant level of uncertainty starts to get to any QB.
The other QBs in the top of pressures are Watson, Hurts, Herbert and Young. Only the panthers have a functioning offense of that group and it’s because for now Young is getting away with his Bama routine of being so small he can find cracks in a pocket to escape and throw.
The other QBs in the top of pressures are Watson, Hurts, Herbert and Young. Only the panthers have a functioning offense of that group and it’s because for now Young is getting away with his Bama routine of being so small he can find cracks in a pocket to escape and throw.
Posted on 10/13/26 at 3:33 pm to Midget Death Squad
quote:
Concerning stat for Shough: 6.3 YPA
He's under pressure constantly. So, the result isn't concerning in itself.
What's concerning is, young QBs can be ruined this way. They start flinching...they start reacting, their technique breaks down making downfield throws out of the question, etc.
My point is that I don't think this is a reflection of Shough...this is a reflection of our piss poor OL and/or the coaching staff's inability to give Shough time via scheme.
Posted on 10/13/26 at 3:45 pm to moneyg
quote:
He's under pressure constantly.
Which I addressed in my OP. I state that I believe this is the main cause along with poor play designs.
quote:
My point is that I don't think this is a reflection of Shough...this is a reflection of our piss poor OL and/or the coaching staff's inability to give Shough time via scheme.
While I tend to agree, we really do need to see him play from a clean pocket consistently and increase his YPA. Right now we have an incomplete gauging of his true abilities due to the constant pressure. Of the few times he does have a clean pocket, he still is throwing short on a large percentage of his plays. While I attribute this to lack of faith in his protection, it remains unclear if this is his overall game or not.
Until this OL and scheme gets repaired, we won't truly know what we have in Shough.
Regardless of who's ultimately at fault, 6.3 is an awful stat line. We will not win games maintaining this level of pass production.
Posted on 10/13/26 at 3:47 pm to Midget Death Squad
quote:
I do think a significant part of this is his fear to take shots downfield
Literally have not seen this at all
He is getting smashed on every play, he never has time to throw it down field
Posted on 10/13/26 at 3:48 pm to tigerfan88
On top of that, we cannot run the ball at all, so you are not sucking any of the LBs or DBs in. They can keep the top on
Posted on 10/13/26 at 4:07 pm to Fun Bunch
That’s the biggest reason. That’s how you generate explosive plays in 2026. It’s impossible to do without the threat of the run and marrying your run game to play action/motion explosives.
Burrow’s YPA the last 4 seasons including this one: 6.3, 7.5, 7.0, 7.2.
Mahomes last four seasons: 7.0, 6.7, 7.1 and 8.1.
Two of the widely considered best QBs in the game. Two of the only guys who were (and are if you’re Burrow) playing like Shough is being asked to play, I.e no run game, no play action, very little motion, balky o-lines. Not even sniffing 8 YPA until this year for the chiefs when they finally got an effective run game going with Kenneth Walker.
Burrow’s YPA the last 4 seasons including this one: 6.3, 7.5, 7.0, 7.2.
Mahomes last four seasons: 7.0, 6.7, 7.1 and 8.1.
Two of the widely considered best QBs in the game. Two of the only guys who were (and are if you’re Burrow) playing like Shough is being asked to play, I.e no run game, no play action, very little motion, balky o-lines. Not even sniffing 8 YPA until this year for the chiefs when they finally got an effective run game going with Kenneth Walker.
This post was edited on 10/13/26 at 4:09 pm
Posted on 10/13/26 at 4:08 pm to Fun Bunch
The two most important things for success I said was oline health and a healthy run game before the season started.
But frick it. Let's all panic in a circle jerk of misery lol
But frick it. Let's all panic in a circle jerk of misery lol
Posted on 10/13/26 at 4:17 pm to goatmilker
quote:
Let's all panic in a circle jerk of misery lol
Where am I panicking? I'm highlighting an issue that has not been much discussed here. I am far from one of the Shough naysayers on this board. I'm the opposite; I have been saying that I think he could be one of the top QBs in this leauge.
I swear, I think many of you read a thread title and freak out without reading the actual content of the topic.
Posted on 10/13/26 at 4:35 pm to tigerfan88
quote:
Mahomes last four seasons: 7.0, 6.7, 7.1 and 8.1.
and was under 4K yards for those seasons. He has been a good QB the last several years, but he has not dominated like he did his first several seasons. Plus he is clutch and can take over games when needed.
quote:
Burrow’s YPA the last 4 seasons including this one: 6.3, 7.5, 7.0, 7.2.
Burrow has only completed a full season once of the years you reference, and it was the 7.5 where he threw for 5K yards.
Now go look at last season's QBs who were the top of the YPA class:
Maye- 8.9/4394
Darnold- 8.5/4048
Jackson- 8.4/2549 (13 games)
Jones- 8.1/3101 (13 games)
Allen- 8/3668
All 5 of these had incredible seasons last year, and all 5 teams were winners. Colts fell off after Jones' injury.
Posted on 10/13/26 at 4:47 pm to Midget Death Squad
I’m not arguing that it’s not an important metric to judge whether you have a good offense or not.
My argument is that in 2026 it is much more reflective of your offensive playcaller and offensive system as a whole than it is the QB. It’s not 2011 where you almost perfectly correlate how good a team’s passing offense was to how good its QB was.
Bills and Ravens were the top two rushing teams in the NFL in yards and per carry. Patriots top ten in yards and top 15 in YPC. Colts top ten in yards per carry. Seahawks not great in yards per carry but 11th in overall yards (also had the OPOTY).
If your argument is our offense sucks I agree. I just don’t think YPA is particularly relevant to how “good” your QB is in 2026.
My argument is that in 2026 it is much more reflective of your offensive playcaller and offensive system as a whole than it is the QB. It’s not 2011 where you almost perfectly correlate how good a team’s passing offense was to how good its QB was.
Bills and Ravens were the top two rushing teams in the NFL in yards and per carry. Patriots top ten in yards and top 15 in YPC. Colts top ten in yards per carry. Seahawks not great in yards per carry but 11th in overall yards (also had the OPOTY).
If your argument is our offense sucks I agree. I just don’t think YPA is particularly relevant to how “good” your QB is in 2026.
This post was edited on 10/13/26 at 4:48 pm
Posted on 10/13/26 at 4:52 pm to Midget Death Squad
Sounding similar to Rattler's tenure. What is the common theme? Maybe the coach/play caller?
Posted on 10/13/26 at 5:02 pm to Midget Death Squad
quote:
Until this OL and scheme gets repaired, we won't truly know what we have in Shough.
Or, as I mentioned, you'll never find out what you have because you ruin him.
That's the real risk here.
Posted on 10/13/26 at 6:00 pm to NOSHAU
People keep saying this but Shough has helped win games and has way better stats than Rattler. I don’t see the comparison. Maybe it is just me
Posted on 10/13/26 at 6:05 pm to suavecito80
After week 2 (I know that's a short timeframe), Shough was the best deep passer in the league. I think that he had a perfect QB rating.
The OL, lack of running game, and coaching is killing him. And as mentioned a few times in this thread, that can cause some bad habits long-term.
The OL, lack of running game, and coaching is killing him. And as mentioned a few times in this thread, that can cause some bad habits long-term.
Posted on 10/13/26 at 6:51 pm to Midget Death Squad
Well...duh I'm old and shake my fist at clouds.
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