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Why So Much Panic?

Posted on 12/5/18 at 9:23 am
Posted by lionward2014
New Orleans
Member since Jul 2015
11705 posts
Posted on 12/5/18 at 9:23 am
Why is this board melting down so hard right now? The entire Western Conference, outside of Phoenix, are within 5.5 games of first place. Through 25 games we are 12-13, last year we were 13-12 at this point. This team has shown they can rip off a win streak, they battle back into games, and have rarely been blown out this season. At the moment we are playing Tim Frazier, Solo, and Wesley Johnson high minutes, and still competing/winning.

We still have 57 games left. We get Elfrid back in a month, and Dell is going to get a 3 before the deadline.

Can we stop panicking in early December already?
Posted by saints5021
Louisiana
Member since Jul 2010
17472 posts
Posted on 12/5/18 at 9:33 am to
Because we have seen this shite before ... like every fricking year.
Posted by Cheesy Beaver
Kenna brah
Member since Dec 2014
4424 posts
Posted on 12/5/18 at 9:43 am to
quote:

Through 25 games we are 12-13, last year we were 13-12 at this point


And we went on an unreal run at the end of the season to get into the playoffs. To think that we could easily reciprocate that again is foolish.

quote:

We get Elfrid back in a month


While certainly helpful, Elfrid is not the savior for this team.

quote:

At the moment we are playing Tim Frazier, Solo, and Wesley Johnson high minutes


This is not going to change once Elfrid comes back.

quote:

and Dell is going to get a 3 before the deadline


At a significant cost that could/probably will create other holes in the roster.



There is certainly cause for concern with what we've seen so far.
Posted by AlabamasSalaryCap
New Orleans
Member since Nov 2012
2725 posts
Posted on 12/5/18 at 9:45 am to
You're going to get torched for this, but you're totally right. please make sure to bookmark this post to bump it in March when everyone is standing up and getting crunk over the 5 seed pels.

I mean, look at the trail blazers, they were top of the conference a few weeks ago, now they're the 8th seed. The west is a tight, long race. Just focus on winning the next game.
This post was edited on 12/5/18 at 9:48 am
Posted by Crewz
Member since Jun 2014
5093 posts
Posted on 12/5/18 at 9:47 am to
Because you are assuming good once Payton comes back when the far more likely scenario is one or more guys who is even better than Elfrid will go down for a few weeks or worse.

You have to win at a high rate when your stars are playing because you are gonna lose at a high rate when they go down

A single 4-6 week injury to AD or Jrue ends the season, effectively. The margin of error gets thinner and thinner with every loss
Posted by lionward2014
New Orleans
Member since Jul 2015
11705 posts
Posted on 12/5/18 at 9:52 am to
quote:

There is certainly cause for concern


There is for sure some things to be concerned about, but there are numerous threads about blowing it up, trading AD, firing coaches, etc. We are nowhere near that level, especially not in December.

We did have a 10 game win streak at the end of last season, but we also had a 4 game losing streak at the end of the season (including one to the Thunder and one to the Blazers who we were fighting for seeding with). We finished last season 10-8, after the 10 game win streak, we weren't necessarily lighting the world on fire going into our playoff push.
Posted by Laman1978
Earth
Member since Jan 2009
10900 posts
Posted on 12/5/18 at 9:53 am to
Another season, same'ol .500 Pels.
Posted by billyholawboy
Denham Springs
Member since Dec 2007
916 posts
Posted on 12/5/18 at 10:13 am to
Solo doesn’t get those minutes if Niko plays last night. Missing 2 starters against the (currently) top team in a stacked west and losing by 3 doesn’t make me panic.

Now, lose the next 2 w/ Niko back in the lineup (hopefully) and I’ll get worried.

The big hole they dig themselves early in games into is pretty concerning. Is that on the players, Uncle Al or both?
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
61483 posts
Posted on 12/5/18 at 10:16 am to
quote:

While certainly helpful, Elfrid is not the savior for this team.


People would have said the same thing about QPon and peak Norris Cole several years ago. It's not that Payton is the Savior, it's that he's got a set of skills that is sorely lacking on the roster and should have a big impact since he'll be taking minutes away from guys that are fringe NBA players.


quote:

This is not going to change once Elfrid comes back.


I don't see Johnson as a problem, it'd be nice if he were the backup though.

quote:

At a significant cost that could/probably will create other holes in the roster.


Randle plays a lot of minutes with the bench, so that impacts this for sure, but he's had a negative NetRtg the entire season. I do worry a bit what will happen if they choose Randle over Niko, both not having Bird Rights on Randle and not being sure if Randle really is a better fit than Niko. Randle pushes AD outside where he's not as comfortable.
Posted by Crewz
Member since Jun 2014
5093 posts
Posted on 12/5/18 at 10:27 am to
Yes....Elfrid will help a lot if everyone else is healthy too because it gives you enough depth to not have to play bad guys. But the bad assumption that is constantly made is that we will remain fully healthy.

History says another main guy or two will get hurt. At which point people will say, "once Moore and Randle get back, we will be fine."

Your team can't be a below .500 team just because you are down one rotation piece
Posted by Cheesy Beaver
Kenna brah
Member since Dec 2014
4424 posts
Posted on 12/5/18 at 10:27 am to
quote:

People would have said the same thing about QPon and peak Norris Cole several years ago


I could see this being the best case scenario.

quote:

if Randle really is a better fit than Niko


Niko appears to be a great fit next to AD, Randle on the other hand..
Posted by PTLSU
New Orleans
Member since Jun 2012
1596 posts
Posted on 12/5/18 at 11:18 am to
Every team in the West other than the Warriors is an incomplete team that will go on losing streaks. The Rockets and Jazz had high hopes just like we did, and their fan bases are also melting down. The Blazers looked really good 2 weeks ago, and now they've gone 1-6 in their last 7 games.

I believe that we're going to be fine. The key is being healthy and being on the opposite side of the Warriors in playoff seeding. There's no team other than the Warriors that I fear in a 7 game series.

This post was edited on 12/5/18 at 11:21 am
Posted by TeddyPadillac
Member since Dec 2010
25515 posts
Posted on 12/5/18 at 11:30 am to
what's concerning to me is the fact that we are 12-13, with Jrue not missing any games and playing pretty well, and AD only missing a handful of games.

There are a lot of teams in disarray right now in the West. Rockets/Spurs/Jazz are all sucking it up just like the Pels. Blazers have lost 8 of their last 11. Hell even the Warriors have a pretty crappy record, they are 6-8 in their last 14.

Clippers/Lakers/Kings/Mavs/Grizzlies are playing great basketball and exceeding expectations.

Point is, while so many teams are struggling right now, we are struggling too, even though our best players aren't hurt. Every day we lose to shitty teams, we tighten that margin of error for later in the season to make the playoffs. We had a pretty easy stretch over the last 10 or so games, and we lost games to teams like the Heat, Knicks and Wizards and Wolves. We shouldn't be 12-13 right now.

I doubt the Kings/Mavs/Grizz keep it up, and i doubt the Rockets/Spurs/Jazz/Blazers stay this mediocre.

When it's all said and done, the 2nd to last team in teh west might have a better record than playoff teams in the east. We might miss the playoffs, by a game or two, and we can look back to the this time as to why we missed out.

And it's AD's fault we are 12-13. We are only as good as he wants us to be.
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
61483 posts
Posted on 12/5/18 at 12:57 pm to
quote:


History says another main guy or two will get hurt. At which point people will say, "once Moore and Randle get back, we will be fine."


I think we're going to keep seeing PTAO until a trade is made.
Posted by Aussie_Pelican
Melbourne
Member since Oct 2016
1197 posts
Posted on 12/5/18 at 1:52 pm to
All part of Dells plan.
Suck just enough so that their pick has some value.

Only problem is the rest of the West got the same memo.
Posted by iwyLSUiwy
I'm your huckleberry
Member since Apr 2008
34267 posts
Posted on 12/5/18 at 2:25 pm to
per capita, this board is more negative than the tiger rant
Posted by shel311
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
110822 posts
Posted on 12/5/18 at 2:29 pm to
quote:

Because we have seen this shite before ... like every fricking year.
Like last year when we finished strong and swept Portland?
Posted by Splackavellie
Bayou
Member since Oct 2017
9828 posts
Posted on 12/5/18 at 2:31 pm to
AD's status beyond this year adds to the angst. It sucks to have to hear all the national stories about where his future will be, and consistent winning would provide some relief.
Posted by shel311
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
110822 posts
Posted on 12/5/18 at 2:32 pm to
quote:

And we went on an unreal run at the end of the season to get into the playoffs. To think that we could easily reciprocate that again is foolish.
We went 27-14 in the 2nd half of the season.

It's not crazy to think if this squad can stay healthy that they can do something similar, winning 25 or so in the 2nd half.
Posted by shel311
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
110822 posts
Posted on 12/5/18 at 2:36 pm to
quote:

AD's status beyond this year adds to the angst. It sucks to have to hear all the national stories about where his future will be, and consistent winning would provide some relief.

It's all noise IMO.


As of now, I wouldn't even remotely entertain a trade call. When the day comes that we can offer him the max extension, we offer it. If he declines and the team hasn't improved much, then you can start entertaining offers.
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