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Was Rondo Really That Good Last Year
Posted on 7/19/18 at 9:19 am
Posted on 7/19/18 at 9:19 am
Premise: On the court, Rondo really didn't help last year. Outside of the Portland series, which was an ideal matchup for him. But since we as humans have recency bias, we worry that Rondo will be a big loss because he was amazing in that Portland series. But, if we play Utah round 1, we are begging the Pels to move on from Rondo.
Facts:
Pelicans offense was worse in the regular season with Rondo on the court (109.5 rating) vs. off (110.8 rating)
Pelicans defense was worse with Rondo on (109.1) vs off (107.9)
Based on those numbers, they were a 41 win team with Rondo on (0.4 differential) and a 48-51 win team with him off (+2.8 differential)
+/- vs. Other Teams They Could Have Played Round 1:
Minny -32.1
Utah -14.3
Houston -6.1
OKC: -2.7
Conclusion: He had one good series. In an ideal matchup. He was played off the court by almost every other good team (Was horrible against Denver too). Maybe he wasn't a loss after all. Especially ON the court.
Facts:
Pelicans offense was worse in the regular season with Rondo on the court (109.5 rating) vs. off (110.8 rating)
Pelicans defense was worse with Rondo on (109.1) vs off (107.9)
Based on those numbers, they were a 41 win team with Rondo on (0.4 differential) and a 48-51 win team with him off (+2.8 differential)
+/- vs. Other Teams They Could Have Played Round 1:
Minny -32.1
Utah -14.3
Houston -6.1
OKC: -2.7
Conclusion: He had one good series. In an ideal matchup. He was played off the court by almost every other good team (Was horrible against Denver too). Maybe he wasn't a loss after all. Especially ON the court.
11
Posted on 7/19/18 at 9:22 am to Crewz
I think most people would agree that Rondo's intangibles were far more important than his play on the court.
Elfrid will be better on-court than Rondo was, IMO.
Elfrid will be better on-court than Rondo was, IMO.
Posted on 7/19/18 at 9:29 am to Crewz
The thing I worry about most is Rondo was the guy credited with calming them down and getting them focused when they either got down big or had a lead evaporate. Before Rondo this team just laid down and died or doubled down on stupid plays whenever the other team made a big run to either get ahead or cut into the lead. Last year's team was labelled as resilient. Can they still be resilient without Rondo there to keep them from panicking or quitting when the game gets hard? Who will be the guy that tells them to take it one play at a time? I think Boogie being gone actually helps them survive without Rondo because he was the top offender in pressing and launching ill advised 3s when things got bad. But someone, probably AD, is going to need to step up and say the things Rondo said last year.
This post was edited on 7/19/18 at 9:31 am
Posted on 7/19/18 at 9:37 am to TigerinATL
This doesn't measure intangibles though. But hopes high for EP
Posted on 7/19/18 at 9:39 am to TigerinATL
This can not be understated. The number of games I watched us tend toward crashing and burning the way only New Orleans basketball knows how to do and Rondo is just absolutely dead set on scoring to stop the bleeding with a sneaky reverse layup or creating confusion to find a man open on the wing... his command of the game was truly awesome.
He was my favorite Pelican last year and I think his presence will be sorely missed at times. He supplemented Gentry in ways that made us forget how bad Gentry was at corralling a spiraling team.
Will Elfrid be able to fill that role? We shall see, but my money goes toward there not being anything that could be considered a "replacement" for Rondo.
He was my favorite Pelican last year and I think his presence will be sorely missed at times. He supplemented Gentry in ways that made us forget how bad Gentry was at corralling a spiraling team.
Will Elfrid be able to fill that role? We shall see, but my money goes toward there not being anything that could be considered a "replacement" for Rondo.
Posted on 7/19/18 at 9:39 am to TigerinATL
I totally agree. But your good players - the guys with 100+ million dollar contracts need to fill that role for you. You can't just keep bringing Rondo back every year for the next 5 years to fill that role - especially as his play declines even more and his body breaks down
If AD and/or Jrue can't fill that role, then this team would never really go far anyway, so it doesn't matter. The training wheels are off; Time for those guys to be leaders
If AD and/or Jrue can't fill that role, then this team would never really go far anyway, so it doesn't matter. The training wheels are off; Time for those guys to be leaders
Posted on 7/19/18 at 9:40 am to The Estimator
I think recency bias is getting to you guys a bit here too. Rondo wasn't on the court at the end of most close games. Ian Clark was. And yet, the Pelicans were good in overtime. They were good in close games. Mostly without Rondo.
Posted on 7/19/18 at 9:41 am to Crewz
quote:
If AD and/or Jrue can't fill that role, then this team would never really go far anyway, so it doesn't matter. The training wheels are off; Time for those guys to be leaders
This is pretty much where I stand on the Rondo intangibles. These guys got a year to see what it looks like to be a leader. Now it's time to step up and fill that role.
Posted on 7/19/18 at 9:42 am to Crewz
rondo was an negative on the court except for the POR series as you illustrate. I do feel strongly though that the team will miss his attitude, his work ethic and his IQ
who is going to take that role next year?
who is going to take that role next year?
Posted on 7/19/18 at 9:44 am to Crewz
Here are the facts:
Pels were 30-20 in close games. E'twaun Moore, ian Clark and Darius Miller all finished more games than Rondo.
Rajon ONLY played in the last 5 mins in 22 close games. Those are the facts. Recency bias be damned.
Pels were 30-20 in close games. E'twaun Moore, ian Clark and Darius Miller all finished more games than Rondo.
Rajon ONLY played in the last 5 mins in 22 close games. Those are the facts. Recency bias be damned.
This post was edited on 7/19/18 at 9:47 am
Posted on 7/19/18 at 9:47 am to cgrand
I see so many players not bending their knees when they take free throws (or only doing the slightest bend). And that's so fundamental in getting lift on your shot for a free throw. I can't understand it
This post was edited on 7/19/18 at 9:48 am
Posted on 7/19/18 at 9:58 am to Crewz
I'm not sure what these stats are pointing to in reference to my anecdotal points on him saving us when we look like we're doing our damndest to blow a lead or go down big.
You're pointing out he was rarely involved late in close games. The record of those games being 30-20... not ridiculously better than our overall record. I'm not being snide, just honestly not getting your point.
I can assure you my opinion of Rondo isn't based on his performance in the playoffs. I'm talking about the way he impacted the game outside the box score/stats when I saw him live 6-7 times during the regular season. I watch 90% of the games and I can assure you this teams identity was different this year from those prior in large part due to Rondo's leadership and court presence. That's all I'm saying.
You're pointing out he was rarely involved late in close games. The record of those games being 30-20... not ridiculously better than our overall record. I'm not being snide, just honestly not getting your point.
I can assure you my opinion of Rondo isn't based on his performance in the playoffs. I'm talking about the way he impacted the game outside the box score/stats when I saw him live 6-7 times during the regular season. I watch 90% of the games and I can assure you this teams identity was different this year from those prior in large part due to Rondo's leadership and court presence. That's all I'm saying.
Posted on 7/19/18 at 9:59 am to Crewz
quote:
If AD and/or Jrue can't fill that role, then this team would never really go far anyway, so it doesn't matter. The training wheels are off; Time for those guys to be leaders
Agree. If AD/Jrue didn't mature and learn how to be pros that lead a team this past year, then we have problems that are not fixed by a Rondo bandaid.
Posted on 7/19/18 at 10:02 am to Crewz
Yeah, Rondo is good for the stories about him and for his intelligence. As a basketball player he's not very good anymore.
Posted on 7/19/18 at 10:04 am to Pelefraan 1
quote:
I see so many players not bending their knees when they take free throws (or only doing the slightest bend). And that's so fundamental in getting lift on your shot for a free throw. I can't understand it
k
Posted on 7/19/18 at 10:06 am to Crewz
quote:
Rajon ONLY played in the last 5 mins in 22 close games
I think your training wheels analogy is a good one and while I would have preferred 1 more year of Rondo, especially as a mentor to Payton, I do think they are ready to run without him.
To your point Jrue imposed his will on the other team's offense in multiple games last year which inspired the other guys on the court to step up too. I think this team also has an identity now, defense and pace is what they do, so when AD goes out they know what they are supposed to do. 2 years ago we saw the entire team immediately quit against some cellar dweller, I think it was the Lakers, when AD went out with an injury. That year the identity was AD and a bunch of scrubs. Now they are a playoff team that defends and moves the ball. They have an identity to cling to when AD goes down or the lead goes away.
Posted on 7/19/18 at 10:07 am to Crewz
Playoff numbers please
Posted on 7/19/18 at 10:14 am to Crewz
Well at some points during the season Jammer Nelson was getting more minutes than him. I remember being at a party right after Christmas and they were playing the Mavs. The game was on in the background with no sound and the Pels and Nelson was getting the crunch time minutes.
Posted on 7/19/18 at 10:28 am to Crewz
quote:
If AD and/or Jrue can't fill that role, then this team would never really go far anyway, so it doesn't matter. The training wheels are off; Time for those guys to be leaders
This exactly. I agree that the biggest thing that we'll miss from Rondo is his leadership and experience. But the hope is that Rondo has instilled this mentality permanently in AD and Jrue so they'll be able to lead the team without him.
Simply put, we're all hoping we get Score-at-will AD and Evil Jrue throughout the whole season and especially as we get closer to the playoffs.
Posted on 7/19/18 at 10:40 am to quail man
Playoff Rondo is an illusion. There is "Good Playoff Matchup" Rondo and "Not Good Matchup" Rondo
He was AWESOME against Portland. And he would have been good against San Antonio too. Against the other 7 teams in the West that were good last year, he would have been awful. You know, like he was against Golden State when they played off him on O and shot over him all night when he was on D
He doesn't take a magical elixir for the playoffs. He got the perfect matchup. And that isn't hindsight. A week before the playoffs, Ryan and I talked about possible match ups for specific players on the pod and we both said the only series where Rondo thrives is Portland. They get Utah in round one and he gets destroyed. Minny - even more so. He wouldn't have been on the court.
He was AWESOME against Portland. And he would have been good against San Antonio too. Against the other 7 teams in the West that were good last year, he would have been awful. You know, like he was against Golden State when they played off him on O and shot over him all night when he was on D
He doesn't take a magical elixir for the playoffs. He got the perfect matchup. And that isn't hindsight. A week before the playoffs, Ryan and I talked about possible match ups for specific players on the pod and we both said the only series where Rondo thrives is Portland. They get Utah in round one and he gets destroyed. Minny - even more so. He wouldn't have been on the court.
This post was edited on 7/19/18 at 10:43 am
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