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Message
re: Moving to the offseason
Posted on 2/8/24 at 3:37 pm to 50_Tiger
Posted on 2/8/24 at 3:37 pm to 50_Tiger
quote:
Agreed.
I was even looking at two years out and in theory you kept both:
Lets say Trey 27 / BI 55
Thats 82M in new salary and you have on the books for that year 98.8M which is 180.8M and you now have no Starting or Backup Center on the team. Plus a littany of other spaces needing to be filled.
I kept trying to tell you guys this but
Whether Gayle pays the tax or not, paying BI 55m/yr is absolute malpractice.
Dejounte Murray's deal is for like 27m/yr. BI is slightly better, why does he deserve twice the money?
1
Posted on 2/8/24 at 3:38 pm to PELsu
quote:
The Raps problem was they didn’t want to give max money to either pending UFA. If we don’t want to give max money to BI, then yes we should trade him this offseason. But I think they do.
I dont want to give BI max money. That would instantly become the worst contract in the league
Posted on 2/8/24 at 3:38 pm to Broski
quote:There's also levels to going in the tax.
Broski
Barely going over the tax is different than going way over the tax.
Plus repeater tax...
I can see Gayle dipping a toe in the tax for a year, or going a bit over. I can not see her racking up tax bills like the other elite teams are right now.
Posted on 2/8/24 at 3:40 pm to Balsamic_duck
quote:
Dejounte Murray's deal is for like 27m/yr. BI is slightly better, why does he deserve twice the money?
Personally I don’t think BI does deserve that money but one can argue BI hasn’t hit his full potential and if he does he’s worth that money. Thats just too expensive of a gamble to take on his potential. But in my opinion I think Griffin will take that gamble.
Posted on 2/8/24 at 3:45 pm to shel311
quote:
There's also levels to going in the tax.
Of course, but we have people in here believing she will never go into it.
Posted on 2/8/24 at 3:47 pm to 50_Tiger
quote:
This is very simple folks. BI or Trey is getting traded in the offseason.
IF Trey starts living up to his potential in the back half of this season, then he might need the kind of money that would make this true. Right now I’m fairly certain we could sign him to a Herb Jones type deal
But the ONLY good thing about him having an off year so far is it makes him much less expensive
Posted on 2/8/24 at 3:48 pm to Pels_Yaz
I removed Liddell's $2mil team option for 25-26, so...
Per Spotrac in 2025-2026, the projections are as follows:
Cap: $155mil
Luxury threshold: $182mil
Zion $39.4m
CJ $30.6m
Herb $13.9
Dyson $7.7
Hawk $4.7
Those 5 dudes add up to $96.5.
Add to this:
BI Max - 30% of $155mil, starts at $46.5
Trey extension - I'll to with 5/150, I think that's a fair estimation for now, so that's $30mil
Totals updated:
Zion $39.4m
CJ $30.6m
Herb $13.9
Dyson $7.7
Hawk $4.7
BI $46.5
Trey $30m
That puts us at $173mil, $15mil from the tax line. Will we go over? Possibly. Will we go wayyyyy over? probably not.
But as you can see at $15mil away with only 7 dudes, we are guaranteed to have to go over.
The one thing I've been saying on here for a looooong time. If we're going to trade CJ to save/prepare for that 2025-2026 year, it likely would be THIS offseason, so you can trade for someone on an expiring.
But...all of the above is sorta moot and irrelevant to one thing...we should not be giving BI a 30% max, even if you can somehow make room for it. It's not prudent. It's a negative value contract s soon as it's signed. Elite teams don't have those contracts for the best 1/2 players.
Per Spotrac in 2025-2026, the projections are as follows:
Cap: $155mil
Luxury threshold: $182mil
Zion $39.4m
CJ $30.6m
Herb $13.9
Dyson $7.7
Hawk $4.7
Those 5 dudes add up to $96.5.
Add to this:
BI Max - 30% of $155mil, starts at $46.5
Trey extension - I'll to with 5/150, I think that's a fair estimation for now, so that's $30mil
Totals updated:
Zion $39.4m
CJ $30.6m
Herb $13.9
Dyson $7.7
Hawk $4.7
BI $46.5
Trey $30m
That puts us at $173mil, $15mil from the tax line. Will we go over? Possibly. Will we go wayyyyy over? probably not.
But as you can see at $15mil away with only 7 dudes, we are guaranteed to have to go over.
The one thing I've been saying on here for a looooong time. If we're going to trade CJ to save/prepare for that 2025-2026 year, it likely would be THIS offseason, so you can trade for someone on an expiring.
But...all of the above is sorta moot and irrelevant to one thing...we should not be giving BI a 30% max, even if you can somehow make room for it. It's not prudent. It's a negative value contract s soon as it's signed. Elite teams don't have those contracts for the best 1/2 players.
Posted on 2/8/24 at 3:49 pm to Broski
quote:
Of course, but we have people in here believing she will never go into it.
Just to be clear-I think she’ll go into it if we are clear contenders- which to me means getting to west conf finals and being competitive while there. If not then no- shes not going into tax- whatever level it is.
Posted on 2/8/24 at 3:49 pm to Balsamic_duck
quote:
I dont want to give BI max money. That would instantly become the worst contract in the league
I know at face value this does seem like a lot of money BUT give it 2 years and it will be chump change....
The real decision would be trading CJ on the last year of his contract. We would pretty much have to do that to retain BI that following year while keeping Hawk/ Dyson/ Zion/ Trey.
At that point BI in his prime at 55mil with a 34y/o CJ coming off the books at 30mil makes sense.
Now this only works if BI improves and CJ declines. If CJ outplays BI through the playoffs and beginning of next year then bye BI...
Posted on 2/8/24 at 3:50 pm to shel311
quote:
Trey extension - I'll to with 5/150, I think that's a fair estimation for now, so that's $30mil
I don’t think Trey has leverage for that kind of deal right now
If he plays the second half of the season more to his standards, and shows improvement, sure
But right now I just don’t think he can get that deal
Posted on 2/8/24 at 3:52 pm to Dantheman504
quote:tIt's not the dollar value, it's the % of cap. So 2 years won't change that. It'll be a bad contract immediately.
I know at face value this does seem like a lot of money BUT give it 2 years and it will be chump change....
Posted on 2/8/24 at 3:52 pm to Terrific Tales
quote:
IF Trey starts living up to his potential in the back half of this season, then he might need the kind of money that would make this true
This is an entirely different discussion, but I think we need to have an honest conversation about what is Trey's potential.
Some seem to think he can be a #1 or #2 on this team and I just don't ever see him having the ball handling skills to be that guy. He is an off ball scorer, which is extremely useful to a contending team, but I don't ever foresee him being the guy you want with the ball in his hands the majority of the time.
Posted on 2/8/24 at 3:53 pm to Terrific Tales
quote:Sure but if I'm projecting, I highly doubt Trey will continue playing like this. We have a large enough sample to show this is probably an extended slump and he's going to shoot better than he is now.
I don’t think Trey has leverage for that kind of deal right now
If he plays the second half of the season more to his standards, and shows improvement, sure
But right now I just don’t think he can get that deal
Posted on 2/8/24 at 3:54 pm to shel311
quote:
Sure but if I'm projecting, I highly doubt Trey will continue playing like this. We have a large enough sample to show this is probably an extended slump and he's going to shoot better than he is now.
I have no doubt he will shoot better
He needs to do more than just shoot better to get a 5/150 type deal
Posted on 2/8/24 at 3:55 pm to Broski
quote:An off ball scorer can be a #2 scorer on a good team.
This is an entirely different discussion, but I think we need to have an honest conversation about what is Trey's potential.
Some seem to think he can be a #1 or #2 on this team and I just don't ever see him having the ball handling skills to be that guy. He is an off ball scorer, which is extremely useful to a contending team, but I don't ever foresee him being the guy you want with the ball in his hands the majority of the time.
Obviously this slump, extended slump has changed things. But if Trey had built off of the final 2 months of last season and came right out of the gates at worst that dude, then progressively got better this and next season. That's a #2 dude.
But again, that obviously hasn't happened and he's regressed. But growth isn't linear so the book isn't closed on that IMO
Posted on 2/8/24 at 3:56 pm to shel311
I am operating under the assumption that the organization plans to be a tax team beginning next year. There is not one single contender who don't sell out every year as far as getting players. Look at what Boston has done, Milwaukee, Golden St, all of them. It is what it is.
Posted on 2/8/24 at 3:57 pm to ThePistol
(Whoops DOuble) ATL or WIKSF can you remove this?
This post was edited on 2/8/24 at 3:58 pm
Posted on 2/8/24 at 3:57 pm to 50_Tiger
Mathematically we wont be.
Posted on 2/8/24 at 3:58 pm to shel311
I see a #2 as someone who can generate his own offense, I just don't see Trey being that guy.
Posted on 2/8/24 at 3:58 pm to Broski
quote:
This is an entirely different discussion, but I think we need to have an honest conversation about what is Trey's potential. Some seem to think he can be a #1 or #2 on this team and I just don't ever see him having the ball handling skills to be that guy. He is an off ball scorer, which is extremely useful to a contending team, but I don't ever foresee him being the guy you want with the ball in his hands the majority of the time.
He will never be a #1 on a team. I could see him being a #2 with the right pieces around him, but I think it’s more likely he spends most of his career in the bracket of #3 on a contender/#2 on a non-contender
Trey needs to get stronger. The good news for Trey is that his frame looks like it can add substantially more muscle. The other good news is that Trey’s athleticism doesn’t seem to have taken a dip because of the injury, just his confidence, which is huge
But for Trey to be at his potential he needs probably 20 more pounds and he needs to improve his driving ability. The good thing is for someone built like Trey putting on muscle and improving your driving ability can go hand in hand
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