re: I'm not sure how this team improves via trade

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Apparently this year CJ is playing too well to bash, so he’s moved on to Nance.

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Dumb

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Zion for Lauri + Olynyk is my dream trade. Gets us out of the tax, and we don't have to bend over backwards to build a team around Zion

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Why are so many of you mofos dreaming about ducking the tax?

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Getting Williams or Kessler would be fantastic since they can act as a rotation piece now and core player in the future, but I don't believe they are attainable without a crazy overpay.

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what do you deem an overpay?
Hawkins, 24 lottery protected 1st, and the worst of the Lakers/Pels 25 1st?
I would say that's an overpay, but it's probably what it takes.



I'm interested in finding a defensive center who will make a big impact to the team.

let's look at NetRtg for centers this year that get more than 15mpg
Embiid 13.0
Porzingis 12.5
Jokic 12.3
Chet 9.2
Zubac 9.2
Gobert 9.0
Duop Reath 9.0 (impressive considering he is the only player on the Blazers with a + Net Rating, and he's on a two way, and he's shooting 37% from 3 taking 3.7 a game)
Horford 8.5
Hartenstein 8.2
Day'Ron Sharpe 7.7
Goga 7.3
Nurkik 7.1
Myles Turner 6.9
Lively 6.3
KAT 6.2
JV 6.0
Mitchell Robinson 2.9
Jarrett Allen 2.6
Kessler 1.6
Nance 0.2
Bam -.3
Sabonis -1.0
Poeltl -1.0
Mark Williams -1.2
Olynyk -2.6
Capela -2.8
Wendell Carter Jr. -3.0
JJJ -5.0
Claxton -6.5
Gafford -9.0

The outlier to me here is Bam and Sabonis. We know he's good, and his team is good. Net Rating is going to be heavily influenced by wins and losses, and margin of victory.

What tells a better story is on/off net rating differential. + means they are that much better with that player on the court, - means they are that much worse with them on the court.
Embiid +9.7
Porzingis +4.1
Jokic +21.0
Chet +3.1
Zubac +9.1
Gobert +10.0
Duop Reath +20.5
Horford -3.6
Hartenstein +10.2
Day'Ron Sharpe +13.5
Goga +8.3
Nurkik +13.6
Myles Turner +9.3
Lively +7.1
KAT +1.7
JV +3.0
Mitchell Robinson -0.5
Jarrett Allen +0.6
Kessler +8.1
Nance -5.3
Bam -5.6
Sabonis -3.2
Poeltl +0.6
Mark Williams +13.2
Olynyk +0.9
Capela -2.8
Wendell Carter Jr. -3.0
JJJ +1.4
Claxton -8.9
Gafford +2.3

What's even more suprising here is Bam and Sabonis are both negatives here yet again, which would lead you to believe they are both playing well below what is expected of them.
Bam is at 57.7 TS%, where as he's average 60.7 the last 5 years, but we still know he's a great player.
$20M/yr guys Jarrett Allen and Capella don't seem to be impacting their team that well.

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Lauri would be coming in to be the starting 5, not starting with Jonas.
We'd still need a big body bench 5, as well as keeping Larry.

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Lauri is not a 5.

Good lord, a lot of this thread is arguing Olynyk vs Nance or saying we should play Lauri as a 5? Not sure I want in this thread lol.

Depth and role players are not an issue for this team. In fact we are probably second to none. The issues are our best three players simply not being better than some other teams. And it would be really unlikely we change that mix mid season.

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Why are so many of you mofos dreaming about ducking the tax?

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Cause nobody is winning a title without a true #1, and we haven't seen anything this year to tell us we have a true #1. MVP Zion last December is a potential true #1 on a title team. He hasn't appeared yet this year. Since there is no true #1 that is going to be available this year then it doesn't make sense to start the repeater tax clock this year. We finally have a good team, while still having picks and the ability to stay good for a long time. We really are setup reasonably well, pending the BI long term decision. I think most people would rather see this year out and dip under the tax. Me personally I want to use picks to do that and upgrade our backup C. I think we can do that and not enter the tax. Next year we either go into the tax because Zion is our title #1 or you trade him or BI to try and get one. If you go all in this year you are handcuffed a lot for future moves depending on who you go get.

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The nets suck, i wonder if we could get Trendon Watford from them.

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He got released and we did not try to sign him.

Recent posts also argue that:

- We are good enough to win a title without trading for anyone, and

- Our Big 3 isn't good enough to win a title, no matter what role players we surround them with.


Fun times.

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If Val left, they would have to replace him. Nance is not suddenly your starting 5 regardless.

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correct.

We'll have over $130M in CJ/BI/Zion/Larry/Herb next year, so we won't be able to sign anyone.

I would imagine if the team wanted JV next year, they would have already offered him an extension, but we haven't done that.
The fact that we haven't done that would tell me that we do need to look for our next 5 right now possibly, whether or not that means JV is traded away.

A simple move of Kira/EJ for Day'Ron Sharpe makes sense, and gets us under the tax.

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not what the fans want, but what they realize the owner will dictate. Is it smart to go $10 million more into the tax for a player like Olynyk? Does he move the needle that much?

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Yeah let’s be realistic, Gayle isn’t going to go into the tax for the first time ever to bring in Kelly fricking olynyk. If she does pay the tax it’s cuz griff lined up a needle moving trade and convinced Gayle it’ll will make us contenders