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Great Expectations
Posted on 12/2/19 at 12:23 pm
Posted on 12/2/19 at 12:23 pm
It seems like a lot of posters are seeing the glass as half empty but I look at this team and am very excited despite the losses.
This is a long post so TL;DR - The Pels have blown it with 2 superstars and should be on a track of perpetual disappointment like the Kings or Magic. Instead they’re like the 23 win, 2009 OKC Thunder, building a foundation of greatness around 2 future top 15 players. Melting over losses this season instead of appreciating what is being built will seem silly in hindsight.
I don’t think you guys realize just how lucky the Pels have been. They went from drafting CP3 to drafting AD to drafting Zion and getting useful long term pieces in the AD trade.
Regardless of our win loss record this season the Pels are already WAY ahead of where they should be. This season is all about sorting out the pieces from the AD trade and figuring out which ones fit next to Zion and I feel we’ve made some good progress there.
Coaching - This has been worse than expected but I don’t view it as a long term problem. In fact this rough start should accelerate Gentry’s failure upwards into the Front Office. Also, standing by and eventually promoting Gentry, along with Griffin’s empowerment by ownership, plus the talent on the roster should make the Pels the most desirable coaching job on the market.
AD Trade Pieces - Ingram looks like an All Star in the making and future top 10-15 player. That level of player alone is usually what you hope to land after trading a franchise player and bottoming out for a year or more. To get him and Zion together is insanely good luck.
Josh Hart, he’s not an All Star but if you don’t already love him you need to watch a game.
Lonzo - I’m not throwing in the towel yet, but I’m close. Hopefully we can trade him for something nice.
Hayes - Jaxson’s accelerated development alone has been worth dealing with all of the melts here. He looks like he has/will have a similar elite skillset like AD did around the basket with the catching and finishing at any height and angle and the ability to cover a lot of ground on defense.
NAW - he hasn’t played as well as I hoped, but he has the right attitude and physical profile. He’s either going to flame out or blow up. I’m betting on blowing up still.
Didi - if all he does is replace Moore as cheap but quality bench depth that’s a huge win with a 2nd rounder. Everything we’ve seen so far says he should be able to do that.
Veterans
JJ Redick is a difference maker. If we had been able to attract FAs of his caliber (without overpaying) in the CP3 or AD era, those eras might still be going on. I put Favors in that same category. If Griffin/Langdon can continue to pull in that level of veteran in the future, the Pels will become contenders for sure.
Jrue is Jrue. If you ask him to be Steve Nash you’ll be disappointed, but if you can let him be Jrue he’s an All Star caliber player.
The bottom line is the future is bright and that’s what should be the focus this season. That 23 win Thunder team won 50 games the next season. The process is good and the foundation looks strong. Enjoy this year for what it is instead of expecting it to be something it’s not.
This is a long post so TL;DR - The Pels have blown it with 2 superstars and should be on a track of perpetual disappointment like the Kings or Magic. Instead they’re like the 23 win, 2009 OKC Thunder, building a foundation of greatness around 2 future top 15 players. Melting over losses this season instead of appreciating what is being built will seem silly in hindsight.
I don’t think you guys realize just how lucky the Pels have been. They went from drafting CP3 to drafting AD to drafting Zion and getting useful long term pieces in the AD trade.
Regardless of our win loss record this season the Pels are already WAY ahead of where they should be. This season is all about sorting out the pieces from the AD trade and figuring out which ones fit next to Zion and I feel we’ve made some good progress there.
Coaching - This has been worse than expected but I don’t view it as a long term problem. In fact this rough start should accelerate Gentry’s failure upwards into the Front Office. Also, standing by and eventually promoting Gentry, along with Griffin’s empowerment by ownership, plus the talent on the roster should make the Pels the most desirable coaching job on the market.
AD Trade Pieces - Ingram looks like an All Star in the making and future top 10-15 player. That level of player alone is usually what you hope to land after trading a franchise player and bottoming out for a year or more. To get him and Zion together is insanely good luck.
Josh Hart, he’s not an All Star but if you don’t already love him you need to watch a game.
Lonzo - I’m not throwing in the towel yet, but I’m close. Hopefully we can trade him for something nice.
Hayes - Jaxson’s accelerated development alone has been worth dealing with all of the melts here. He looks like he has/will have a similar elite skillset like AD did around the basket with the catching and finishing at any height and angle and the ability to cover a lot of ground on defense.
NAW - he hasn’t played as well as I hoped, but he has the right attitude and physical profile. He’s either going to flame out or blow up. I’m betting on blowing up still.
Didi - if all he does is replace Moore as cheap but quality bench depth that’s a huge win with a 2nd rounder. Everything we’ve seen so far says he should be able to do that.
Veterans
JJ Redick is a difference maker. If we had been able to attract FAs of his caliber (without overpaying) in the CP3 or AD era, those eras might still be going on. I put Favors in that same category. If Griffin/Langdon can continue to pull in that level of veteran in the future, the Pels will become contenders for sure.
Jrue is Jrue. If you ask him to be Steve Nash you’ll be disappointed, but if you can let him be Jrue he’s an All Star caliber player.
The bottom line is the future is bright and that’s what should be the focus this season. That 23 win Thunder team won 50 games the next season. The process is good and the foundation looks strong. Enjoy this year for what it is instead of expecting it to be something it’s not.
13
Posted on 12/2/19 at 12:29 pm to TigerinATL
I completely agree that the future can be bright, but the future will only be bright when they cut ties with gentry. I didnt expect this team to be a top team in the west but with this roster we should be beating teams like OKC at home.
Posted on 12/2/19 at 12:33 pm to TigerinATL
Completely agree with all of it.
Biggest thing going forward for me is finding the right coach for a Zion/Ingram team. Everything we do over the next 2-3 years should be built with them in mind.
It's tough to watch your team lose, which is why there's a lot of negativity, but i certainly am not upset about our future, and i'm still exciting about it. It's just difficult to not harp on the present issues. Long term we are set up to succeed.
Biggest thing going forward for me is finding the right coach for a Zion/Ingram team. Everything we do over the next 2-3 years should be built with them in mind.
It's tough to watch your team lose, which is why there's a lot of negativity, but i certainly am not upset about our future, and i'm still exciting about it. It's just difficult to not harp on the present issues. Long term we are set up to succeed.
Posted on 12/2/19 at 12:52 pm to TigerinATL
I do agree with most of that, but it’s still hard as a fan to lose in frustrating fashion again and again, especially since we retained a coach know one believes in.
I wonder if the reaction on this board would be more patient if there had been a coaching change?
I wonder if the reaction on this board would be more patient if there had been a coaching change?
Posted on 12/2/19 at 12:53 pm to TigerinATL
I agree with everything here
Notice the same people melting after every loss are some of the same who blasted the franchise for NOT sucking another year or two into the AD era in order to maximize cheap, young talent.
Everyone likes the idea of taking a year or two to set us up for a long and bright future until it’s time to actually lose the games lol.
Notice the same people melting after every loss are some of the same who blasted the franchise for NOT sucking another year or two into the AD era in order to maximize cheap, young talent.
Everyone likes the idea of taking a year or two to set us up for a long and bright future until it’s time to actually lose the games lol.
Posted on 12/2/19 at 1:08 pm to Fun Bunch
quote:
I wonder if the reaction on this board would be more patient if there had been a coaching change?
I guarantee it would be. Gentry is a problem most fans have wanted to fix since he arrived. Each frustrating loss just confirms the doubts most fans had when he was hired.
This board is partly for venting, so I don’t expect people to stop complaining, but this board is also for pulling each other back from the ledge. If your expectations were set by Griffin’s sales job, you’re probably looking at this as a failed playoff bid rather than a good rebuilding year.
This post was edited on 12/2/19 at 1:10 pm
Posted on 12/2/19 at 1:12 pm to TigerinATL
I didn't really expect us to make the playoffs, but I thought we would be competitive and in the conversation at the end of the season. And we still could be. We've played the hardest schedule in the league so far and things calm down after the holidays.
I see it as a building year and I think we are well set up for the future.
My frustration is infinitely higher because of Gentry.
I see it as a building year and I think we are well set up for the future.
My frustration is infinitely higher because of Gentry.
Posted on 12/2/19 at 1:20 pm to Fun Bunch
quote:
My frustration is infinitely higher because of Gentry.
X10000
Posted on 12/2/19 at 1:28 pm to TigerinATL
Good post, ATL.
I said it in another thread, but I'll say it again. The point of this season is identifying the young talent to be part of a championship run with Zion.
So far, we've seen substantial improvement in the game of Ingram, Kenrich, Hart, and Hayes -- and all four of them could clearly be contributors on a future championship team.
That's exciting. Ingram and Hayes, in particular, both have tremendous star potential.
And NAW and Didi are two more guys who could develop into valuable pieces. Other players that I had hopes for, especially Frank, Melli and Lonzo, have disappointed. But again, that's what this season is about.
I think that crunch-time problems mainly result from the lack of a star. Stars close games, period -- or they attract enough attention to create an open shot for someone else. Fortunately, we're about to have a star join our team.
I said it in another thread, but I'll say it again. The point of this season is identifying the young talent to be part of a championship run with Zion.
So far, we've seen substantial improvement in the game of Ingram, Kenrich, Hart, and Hayes -- and all four of them could clearly be contributors on a future championship team.
That's exciting. Ingram and Hayes, in particular, both have tremendous star potential.
And NAW and Didi are two more guys who could develop into valuable pieces. Other players that I had hopes for, especially Frank, Melli and Lonzo, have disappointed. But again, that's what this season is about.
I think that crunch-time problems mainly result from the lack of a star. Stars close games, period -- or they attract enough attention to create an open shot for someone else. Fortunately, we're about to have a star join our team.
Posted on 12/2/19 at 1:52 pm to TigerinATL
quote:
Lonzo - I’m not throwing in the towel yet, but I’m close. Hopefully we can trade him for something nice.
I absolutely hate what he does to our offense. His On/Off is -8.8 (we are 8.8 points better per 100 poss when he is off the court), and he takes so many shots away from Redick.
JJ with Lonzo:
12.1 PPG on 5.67 3PA per game (50%)
JJ without Lonzo:
20.4 PPG on 10.3 3PA per game (48%)
His 3 point attempts double with Lonzo out and his 3P% stays almost exactly the same. He's shooting a respectable 36% from 3, but that isn't good enough when you're taking away 5 shots a game from a guy shooting 50%.
On top of that his defense has not been good. His steal rate is down, block rate is down, DBPM is just awful. I'm willing to wait until Zion comes back to completely throw in the towel, but I just don't see continuing to give him major minutes as of now.
Posted on 12/2/19 at 1:54 pm to Not Cooper
Lonzo just may not be a good fit for us.
Posted on 12/2/19 at 2:13 pm to Fun Bunch
quote:
Lonzo just may not be a good fit for us.
I think he can be a good NBA player, just not with our starting lineup. He and Jrue are no bueno together offensively, and his defense hasn't been anywhere good enough to off set his offense.
Teams let him shoot, which is why he's taking so many 3's, and his lack of movement off the ball, as well as his reluctance to drive to the goal makes our offense stagnant.
This post was edited on 12/2/19 at 2:20 pm
Posted on 12/2/19 at 2:15 pm to TeddyPadillac
Even if the picks and Ball dont work out... Ingram and Hayes is a good haul for him.
Posted on 12/2/19 at 2:21 pm to Not Cooper
quote:
I absolutely hate what he does to our offense. His On/Off is -8.8 (we are 8.8 points better per 100 poss when he is off the court), and he takes so many shots away from Redick.
JJ with Lonzo:
12.1 PPG on 5.67 3PA per game (50%)
JJ without Lonzo:
20.4 PPG on 10.3 3PA per game (48%)
That right there is all the proof you need on him. Yeah he's shooting well from 3 for the most part, but we are worst with him out there, despite him individually doing well.
Posted on 12/2/19 at 2:31 pm to TeddyPadillac
quote:
he's taking so many 3's, and his lack of movement off the ball, as well as his reluctance to drive to the goal makes our offense stagnant
Yeah, and it's not like this stuff is impossible to fix -- he just doesn't seem to want to do it. I'm sure that the coaching staff isn't telling him to stand there sucking his thumb when someone else has the ball. I'm sure that the staff is telling him that he has to drive more and he needs to quit jacking up contested 3s early in the shot clock.
But he seems unable to change. If Zion comes back around the 15th, I think that we will wait about 10 games and see how we're doing before Griffin decides whether we're going to be buying or selling in the trade market.
Posted on 12/2/19 at 2:39 pm to Not Cooper
quote:The trend and high number are certainly not goo, but I'm not sure how much stock we should put into that just yet.
I absolutely hate what he does to our offense. His On/Off is -8.8 (we are 8.8 points better per 100 poss when he is off the court),
For example, it's not as high as the 8.8 for Lonzo, but we've technically been better this season when Jrue and even Ingram are off the court based on On/Off.
quote:JJ needs to remain with the starters and Lonzo with the subs IMO.
JJ with Lonzo:
12.1 PPG on 5.67 3PA per game (50%)
JJ without Lonzo:
20.4 PPG on 10.3 3PA per game (48%)
Posted on 12/2/19 at 3:14 pm to shel311
quote:
we've technically been better this season when Jrue and even Ingram are off the court based on On/Off.
But there are other, really good explanations for those numbers. Jrue started the season horribly and has played much, much better after the first eight games.
Ingram's on/off numbers have really suffered from being expected to guard PFs, when Ingram is really a SF. Ingram got abused by Millsap and Siakam when he was tasked with guarding them. I haven't seen someone calculate it lately, but about 10 days ago, I saw a tweet from someone who had done the work and found that Ingram's numbers were much, much better when he was at SF. And it's not just the difficulty of guarding the big guys -- it's also that he has to box out for DREBs, and that keeps him from leading the break and getting to the rim in transition.
I don't know of any similar explanation that helps Lonzo.
Posted on 12/2/19 at 3:16 pm to GOP_Tiger
Off topic note: Gentry said the “it would be tough” to expect Kenrich to play tomorrow on his twisted ankle.
Posted on 12/2/19 at 4:46 pm to Fun Bunch
quote:
wonder if the reaction on this board would be more patient if there had been a coaching change?
Nope.
When Gentry won down the stretch and v PDX, people were on board. Last year when the post-Davis-bomb, short handed Pels were playing hard and winning games in NBA zombie season, many people were still on board.
It's all about the last game. Which is fine, a little short sighted in some instances. I just wish there were more actual, thoughtful critiques instead of "We lost. Coach is worst. Players bitches."
Posted on 12/2/19 at 5:26 pm to corndeaux
I agree. I much rather the conversations about our players who are doing well. Who showed heart in a game.
The role players such as Hart, Williams are so much better than i expected. They both bring a gritty heads up type play.
Jrue has always had AD to drop off the ball in crunch time. Jrue wanted to be "the guy" just didn't have to count on himself to have to do it every night.
Ingram and JJ should take some of that burden off of Jrue. Honestly, as good as Ingram has been, it is still a small sample size as far as finishing games. The team will figure it out.
I do not like it when there is an off night where the Pels are not playing. There is a joy I have to have hope in our players, our team and our coach. Win, lose or draw; i am a pels fan.
The role players such as Hart, Williams are so much better than i expected. They both bring a gritty heads up type play.
Jrue has always had AD to drop off the ball in crunch time. Jrue wanted to be "the guy" just didn't have to count on himself to have to do it every night.
Ingram and JJ should take some of that burden off of Jrue. Honestly, as good as Ingram has been, it is still a small sample size as far as finishing games. The team will figure it out.
I do not like it when there is an off night where the Pels are not playing. There is a joy I have to have hope in our players, our team and our coach. Win, lose or draw; i am a pels fan.
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