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re: "Serial" Podcast Discussion Thread...SPOILERS
Posted on 1/1/15 at 1:18 pm to Big Scrub TX
Posted on 1/1/15 at 1:18 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
What was the circumstantial evidence outside of Jay's incredibly non-linear testimony?
1) adnan's fingerprints in hae's car.no jay, no jenn, nobody else's. but adnan's are there.
2) the "i will kill" written on the top of a note about hae found in adnan's car.
3) adnan's inability to say where he was at all during an important 2-4 hour window when the murder took place. remember, it is agreed that adnan was with jay in the morning and in the evening. those 2-4 hours are important and adnan has no alibi except for:
3b) adnan's ONLY alibi, asia, was probably mistaken about the day she saw him LINK
4) jay's testimony, while inconsistent in some details on the timeline and places, points to adnan.
quote:
Some recent information from Adnan's 2003 denial of appeal has called that into question:
quote:
It is bizarrely unclear when Jay took the police to the location of Hae’s car.
i fail to see how that is at all relevant. it's not disputing whether jay took them to the car or not, it's disputing when he took them. the conclusion there is that jay took them to the car. thus, he knew where the car was. thus, he was involved in some way to have that knowledge.
quote:
If you had one of those phones from back then, then it's extremely easy to accept the premise that someone (Jay) might have accidentally dialed Nisha.
if it was butt dialed, someone had to pick up the line for it to show up with any time on the call logs. as stated in the podcast, nisha's phone didn't have an answering machine. i don't think the person picking up would be on the line for 2+ minutes listening to dead air.
This post was edited on 1/1/15 at 1:30 pm
1
Posted on 1/1/15 at 1:20 pm to Hester Carries
quote:
He testified that Adnan told him he was going to do it, did it, called him from best buy, showed him the body, and then they went to bury it.
Now he is saying that Adnan showed up at his G-mas house unannounced with the body of his ex-girlfriend.
not really, man. re-read the interview.
Posted on 1/1/15 at 1:29 pm to The Spleen
quote:
Well, there's circumstantial evidence that points to Jay and Jenn
no there isn't. jay admits to being involved, it's not circumstantial. and there is nothing at all that points to Jenn. wasn't she at work until 5 that day?
quote:
ho are the only 2 people that admitted to handling the shovels used to bury the body?
how was jenn involved with the shovels? maybe i missed it, but i don't recall that detail.
quote:
he problem is the investigators for whatever reason decided to ignore a lot of other circumstantial evidence pointing to other possible suspects and only focus on the evidence that pointed to Adnan, and did so based on very shaky statements from Jay.
a good portion of an episode was dedicated to speaking to a former officer who is a huge advocate for suspects' rights and fighting against shoddy police work. he said the work was actually above average and saw no problem with it. jay's statement was inconsistent in the details, but he knew things an uninvolved person would not know, so the police should listen to what he says. what circumstantial evidence pointed to others, and to whom did it point?
quote:
And the Nisha call was very likely a butt dial. She said the only time she talked to Jay on the phone was when he Adnan called her from the porn shop, and Jay didn't have that job the day of the murder.
both points addressed by me in a previous post. i'd say it's very unlikely it was a butt dial. and remember, adnan called nisha all the time. it's likely she simply confused dates. Jan 13 would have no significance to her until months later when she's pulled into the investigation.
Posted on 1/1/15 at 1:37 pm to nm1230
quote:
i find jay believable
----------------------------------------------------
Which version do you find believable? Or is it that you just think he "seems" believable when he tells each different version of his story?
thing is, the memory is not infallible. honestly, if his version was exactly the same, every time, it'd be a greater sign to me that the story was fabricated. a liar will remember the details. the overall arch of his narrative fits with the evidence. the story changes in the minor details because, like he said, he was a scared semi-criminal 20 yr old who didn't want to get anybody else (except adnan) involved and he's dragged into a murder. further, he has no reason to involve adnan if adnan is 100% uninvolved, especially since, if jay was lying, he risked blaming someone who could have had an air tight alibi. for me, adnan's reaction, lack of memory, etc. give creedance to jay's version
Posted on 1/1/15 at 1:51 pm to WaveHog
quote:
the overall arch of his narrative fits with the evidence. the story changes in the minor details
Minor details?
So he saw the body for the first time at best buy in one story; he saw it at his grandma's house hours later and he didn't know where Hae's car and body were when he met Adnan at best buy in another story.
Adnan told him he was going to kill Hae prior to lending his car in one story; that didn't happen in another.
Adnan and him went to the cliffs to discuss how it felt to murder somebody; this was not possible in his timeline so it was later omitted.
Adnan and him buried returned from burying the body at 11 in one story as the cell phone ping at Leakin park was the 7 or 8 o clock hour; Adnan didn't pick him up to go bury the body until midnight in another.
Those aren't minor details; they are completely different and impact the entire prosecutions timeline.
This post was edited on 1/1/15 at 1:53 pm
Posted on 1/1/15 at 5:29 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
Those aren't minor details; they are completely different and impact the entire prosecutions timeline.
This.
I realize that details can change over time. But these are not minor details. Would remember where you were the one time you saw a dead body in the trunk of a car?
I was leaning toward Adnan having done it by the end of the podcast but after reading this I think this guy is a liar.
Posted on 1/2/15 at 8:30 am to WaveHog
quote:
no there isn't. jay admits to being involved, it's not circumstantial. and there is nothing at all that points to Jenn. wasn't she at work until 5 that day?
Maybe she was, but there was no proof that Hae was killed at the time the state claims she was. They only came up with that time because it is within the 2-3 hour window that Adnan can't account for.
quote:
how was jenn involved with the shovels?
She helped Jay dispose of them and the clothes he was wearing when he helped bury the body. If I remember right, their stories on where they disposed of said items didn't even match up, but the police never followed up on it.
quote:
he said the work was actually above average and saw no problem with it
He also contradicted himself then, because he was critical of a couple of things. He was suspicious of the police not recording 2-3 hours of Jay's interview. I think it was his 2nd interview.
quote:
i'd say it's very unlikely it was a butt dial.
I'd say it is likely. They researched cell hone agreements from that time period, and found that AT&T would charge for calls that were not picked up. I had that same model phone and butt dialed people all the time if the phone was in my pocket.
It is very possible Nisha confused dates and events. It's also possible she is lying and actually did talk to Adnan during the call in question.
I'm not at a point where I can say Adnan is 100% innocent. I do think based on what I listened to on the podcast, and what I've read on the case outside of the podcast, that the state failed to prove Adnan's guilt beyond a shadow of a doubt. I know the jury disagrees, but juries get things wrong everyday.
The biggest takeway from this show for me is how screwed up our justice system can be. I don't think the investigators were interested in getting to the truth of what happened. I think they had a hunch Adnan was guilty from the start, and they tailored their investigation to suit that bias.
Posted on 1/2/15 at 8:33 am to The Spleen
quote:
It is very possible Nisha confused dates and events
We know she did because Jay didnt work at the porn store yet.
Posted on 1/2/15 at 8:51 am to Hester Carries
Wavehog = Jay
Posted on 1/2/15 at 1:26 pm to WaveHog
quote:
1) adnan's fingerprints in hae's car.no jay, no jenn, nobody else's. but adnan's are there.
The victim's (recent) ex-boyfriend's prints were in her car? That just seems like extremely weak sauce to me. Also, this mastermind killer was too stupid to wipe for prints?
quote:
2) the "i will kill" written on the top of a note about hae found in adnan's car.
OK
quote:
adnan's inability to say where he was at all during an important 2-4 hour window when the murder took place.
When did the murder take place? It has been essentially demonstrated that the state's timeline is total horseshite.
quote:
4) jay's testimony, while inconsistent in some details on the timeline and places, points to adnan.
Yes. In fact, that was basically the ENTIRETY of the prosecution's case...despite the radically inconsistent and incoherent nature of his obviously coached testimony.
quote:
i fail to see how that is at all relevant. it's not disputing whether jay took them to the car or not, it's disputing when he took them. the conclusion there is that jay took them to the car. thus, he knew where the car was. thus, he was involved in some way to have that knowledge.
I thought there was some insinuation that the perhaps the cops already knew where the car was and coached Jay into it.
quote:
if it was butt dialed, someone had to pick up the line for it to show up with any time on the call logs. as stated in the podcast, nisha's phone didn't have an answering machine. i don't think the person picking up would be on the line for 2+ minutes listening to dead air.
I don't think that's right. When SK investigated the butt dial, she found some obscure provision in the ATT agreement that would have allowed for the caller to be billed for a non-answered call that rang 30+ times (or something like that).
The butt dial is very believable IMO. And it cleans up the most glaring problem for Adnan - the Nisha call. Without the Nisha call, Jay's story is nothing.
Posted on 1/2/15 at 1:44 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
I thought there was some insinuation that the perhaps the cops already knew where the car was and coached Jay into it.
Yeah. I'm not sure what to make of this, but there is some evidence that the police already knew where Hae's car was.
quote:I think it was usually anywhere from 30 seconds to a minute ringing, the call will be charged. The Nisha call was over 2 minutes, so it likely that if that was an accidental call, it would have shown up on the phone bill. I don't know if it would show anything, but would cross-referencing Nisha's phone provide any evidence one way or another?
I don't think that's right. When SK investigated the butt dial, she found some obscure provision in the ATT agreement that would have allowed for the caller to be billed for a non-answered call that rang 30+ times (or something like that).
The butt dial is very believable IMO. And it cleans up the most glaring problem for Adnan - the Nisha call. Without the Nisha call, Jay's story is nothing.
I think the design of those cell phones made it quite common to make an accidental call. If today, with my IPhone, which is substantially more difficult to make an accidental call, I will find myself accidentally Face Timing people.
This post was edited on 1/2/15 at 1:47 pm
Posted on 1/2/15 at 1:47 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
I think the design of those cell phones made it quite common to make an accidental call.
There's no question about it. I got my first cell phone about 6 months prior to when Adnan got his. Mine was Qualcomm, but it was a very similar design. The speed-dial feature was comically easy to activate. You simply assigned a phone number to one of the numbers on the keypad (in this case, 1). To dial that person, you pressed and held 1. That's it. It happened all the time.
I'd say the circumstantial evidence that it was a butt-dial is very strong.
Posted on 1/2/15 at 2:00 pm to buckeye_vol
Koenig's ability to assess evidence is questionable.
Oh, we found a subscriber agreement so that's determinative and means a butt dial is possible.
I have absolutely zero doubt Adnan was involved. Jay probably had a larger role.
Oh, we found a subscriber agreement so that's determinative and means a butt dial is possible.
I have absolutely zero doubt Adnan was involved. Jay probably had a larger role.
Posted on 1/2/15 at 2:14 pm to Pettifogger
quote:
Koenig's ability to assess evidence is questionable.
Oh, we found a subscriber agreement so that's determinative and means a butt dial is possible.
Well up until then, an accidental call was not believed to be possible due to it ending up on the phone bill. If an important piece of evidence that was once definitive (couldn't have been accidental) can be called into question (accidental call possible) then the case against him is a bit weaker.
quote:
I have absolutely zero doubt Adnan was involved. Jay probably had a larger role.
How can you have zero doubt either way? The entire case revolves around Jay's testimony; all evidence was constructed around that. How many possible leads were not pursued by the police or the prosecution because they were focused on this single narrative? Confirmation bias is powerful, and we are prone to it, just like we are in this case; however, this can be especially problematic in an investigation when that confirmation bias may result in overlooking information.
Even though the police investigation and the prosecution was centered around Jay's narrative, I think it is clear that there is enough reasonable doubt that Adnan shouldn't have been convicted. Imagine if they had spent time focusing on other possibilities.
Posted on 1/2/15 at 2:18 pm to Pettifogger
quote:
Koenig's ability to assess evidence is questionable.
Her willingness to at least investigate sure seems to beat the cops' though, doesn't it? I mean, she went so far as to track down original plans and leasing info for the Best Buy in order to see if the phone booth was there instead of simply taking the word of an incoherent teenager.
The subscriber agreement that they found very clearly leaves possible the case that a butt dial happened, was never answered by the dialed number and appeared on the subscriber's bill.
Why are you so dismissive of this? I think it's because virtually everything is being seen through the prism of Jay's testimony.
This post was edited on 1/2/15 at 2:36 pm
Posted on 1/2/15 at 2:22 pm to Hester Carries
quote:
We know she did because Jay didnt work at the porn store yet.
Exactly. The state passed off a phone call that, Nisha admits happened weeks later as that all important phone call on the day of Hae's disappearance. This directly refutes Jay's story.
It also calls into question why Jay, who admitted to being afraid of Adnan at this time and described Adnan as barely an acquaintance, was just casually hanging out with him having a good time.
Posted on 1/2/15 at 2:34 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
Even though the police investigation and the prosecution was centered around Jay's narrative, I think it is clear that there is enough reasonable doubt that Adnan shouldn't have been convicted. Imagine if they had spent time focusing on other possibilities.
I agree, yet it isn't as extraordinary as some imply. BRD is rarely actually applied by juries, in my experience.
Anyway, as to Adnan, I'm positive he was involved. Now if the SPOILER...
DNA issue comes back and the unthinkable happens, I'll eat it, just how it goes. But evidence+motive+demeanor is just too much for me to buy his innocence.
Posted on 1/2/15 at 2:39 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
The subscriber agreement that they found very clearly leaves possible the case that a butt dial happened, was never answered by the dialed number and appeared on the subscriber's bill.
Why are you so dismissive of this? I think it's because virtually everything is being seen through the prism of Jay's testimony.
I'm dismissive of the subscriber agreement angle because it's a contract of adhesion that could be applied in all kinds of ways, not applied at all, etc. I think there is ambiguity in the text itself. I'm not saying the pursuit was worthless, but the extent to which Koenig tried to make it weighty was pretty weak IMO.
In general, I think she approached this case in something of a childish fashion. Don't get me wrong, I enjoy the show and I think she's great radio, but she came at it like an open minded Innocence Project intern, not a crime reporter.
15 years ago some folks in Baltimore heard much less stale evidence and found the kid guilty. They saw his mannerisms and witnessed a host of credibility tells that might change in a decade and a half. Thus, to me the deck starts stacked against Adnan. I don't think Koenig started it that way. It's her show, she can be an advocate if she wants, I just think it detracts from her role in future shows (assuming she wants to be seen as an investigative journalist/host).
Posted on 1/2/15 at 2:45 pm to Pettifogger
Regarding motive for Adnan, I just don't see it. The only person that has said Adnan was upset over the break up is Jay, a guy that said he and Adnan weren't even that close and only hung out a ahndful of times to smoke weed. Those closest to Adnan all said he took the break up fine and didn't exhibit any unusual behavior in response to it.
That doesn't really prove his innocence, but casts doubt on the motive.
That doesn't really prove his innocence, but casts doubt on the motive.
Posted on 1/2/15 at 2:48 pm to Pettifogger
quote:
15 years ago some folks in Baltimore heard much less stale evidence and found the kid guilty
actually its been said most convicted him because he didn't testify which is a big no no for a jury considering they were probably told that was going to be the case during voir dire.
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