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re: Obtuse Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice TD review thread (SPOILERS p5+)
Posted on 4/2/16 at 7:22 pm to jeff5891
Posted on 4/2/16 at 7:22 pm to jeff5891
quote:
You need to settle down until Monday or Tuesday. I know a guy over here in Dallas who works at IBM.
Their algorithm for the second week is heavily based on critic scores. They have no idea where the actual numbers are going to be especially since pre sales were higher than usual.
Relax OML
What about literally just about everyone but the fanboys who hate it? Kevin Smith fricking hated it, and you think he would be highly apprehensive on dissing a movie his dear friend starred in. It's much bigger than the critics.
This post was edited on 4/2/16 at 7:35 pm
2
Posted on 4/2/16 at 7:23 pm to Dr RC
quote:
Friday estimates
What do you think happens when you run a regression model?
This post was edited on 4/2/16 at 7:29 pm
Posted on 4/2/16 at 7:25 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
What about literally just about everyone but the fanboys who hate it? Kevin Smith fricking hated it, and you think he would be highly apprehensive on dissing a movie his dear friend started in. It's much bigger than the critics.
and let's not forget that he is actually a pretty big comic nerd and clearly likes the source material.
If you can't get a guy like him on board...
Posted on 4/2/16 at 7:25 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
What about literally just about everyone but the fanboys who hate it? Kevin Smith fricking hated it,
Ok. Relax x 2. You're getting really worked up
Posted on 4/2/16 at 7:30 pm to jeff5891
quote:
What do you happens when you run a regression model?
this isn't just BoxOfficeMojo saying it's in serious trouble based on the Friday numbers. It's damn near every single media outlet that covers box office numbers.
If it holds to typical Friday/Saturday/Sunday numbers its not going to make much more than $50 million over the full weekend.
With it making $15 million on Friday it's likely $20 million is its ceiling for Saturday with it dropping to about $17 million on Sunday.
This post was edited on 4/2/16 at 7:33 pm
Posted on 4/2/16 at 7:31 pm to jeff5891
I liked the movie. If there wasn't dudes sitting next to me, I would've jerked off during it
Posted on 4/2/16 at 7:32 pm to Dr RC
The international numbers look to be even worse. The film was expected to easily clear 700 million after this weekend, but now it looks like it'll come up short. It's just a horrible weekend for WB, no matter how you look at it.
Posted on 4/2/16 at 7:42 pm to jeff5891
quote:
Ok. Relax x 2. You're getting really worked up
I have a sales mentality. I look at the numbers and I look at my customers and their reactions. I would certainly have to conclude that there is something horribly, horribly wrong with the guy in charge of all this.
Don't kid yourself that these studios don't make forecasts. The forecast was something around 1.2 billion, and they may not make within half a billion of that. And that's a good 300M lower than the first Avengers, which is ridiculous due to the brand recognition of the characters.
Look at it from a business standpoint. Forecasts matter, particularly when hundreds of millions are on the line of that forecast. The studios budget in anticipation of that forecast. If it bombs this badly, dozens of heads will roll for it. I'd be highly shocked if most of marketing hasn't already been fired for it, or at least the paper work processed for it.
And I'm not bringing up the quality of the product itself. Name one reason besides the fact they're about to start shooting that Snyder shouldn't immediately be fired? This is the nature of business.
This post was edited on 4/2/16 at 8:47 pm
Posted on 4/2/16 at 8:15 pm to OMLandshark
quote:cool.
I have a sales mentality
I'm letting you guys know that the company that created the model that produces these estimates for movie ticket sales is saying they have no idea how it's going to turn out bc certain variables are abnormal by a lot.
So try to find some solace in that and wait till about midweek before you freak all over this forum
This post was edited on 4/2/16 at 8:32 pm
Posted on 4/2/16 at 8:21 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
No idiot, worldwide.
Quit acting like an a-hole.
Posted on 4/2/16 at 8:23 pm to jeff5891
Just left AMC at the mall as they were announcing that the next 3D showing of BvS was sold out.
Posted on 4/2/16 at 8:34 pm to jeff5891
quote:
I'm letting you guys know that the company that created the model that produces these estimates for movie ticket sales is saying they have no idea how it's going to turn out bc certain variables are abnormal by a lot.
So try to find some solace in that and wait till about midweek before freak all over this forum
Yeah, because those numbers are going to go up tens of millions and they are that grossly inaccurate. Hundreds of millions more are needed to make what they need for Batman vs Superman, and there's no way in hell they're going to make it if those figures are even remotely in the ballpark. Keep putting your head in the sand.
Posted on 4/2/16 at 8:38 pm to jeff5891
It's not like it's projecting numbers two weeks from now. They have a pretty damn good idea how it's going to do this weekend by now. It ain't good. Just like the movie.
Posted on 4/2/16 at 8:44 pm to jeff5891
quote:
I'm letting you guys know that the company that created the model that produces these estimates for movie ticket sales is saying they have no idea how it's going to turn out bc certain variables are abnormal by a lot.
You don't even need to know how much it dropped from last Friday to this Friday.
All you need to know is what traditional movie patterns say will happen after your Friday returns are in.
AT BEST if everything breaks right it can hit about $55-57 million this weekend. There is basically zero chance it hits $60 million or better for the weekend.
After that its a good guess the best case scenario is it makes $25ish million weekend 3, then $12 million weekend 4, then $6 million weekend 5 etc.
It has a poor CinemaScore from audiences and horrid reviews from critics.
Both of those point to terrible longterm legs and do not give any indication that it will go from a $15 million Friday to a $25 million Saturday and $20 million Sunday.
All you have to do is look at past patterns for other super hero flicks to see that this Friday's returns don't bode well for the long term domestic box office numbers.
Avengers: Age of Ultron
Man of Steel
The Dark Knight Returns
Amazing Spider-Man 2
This post was edited on 4/2/16 at 8:54 pm
Posted on 4/2/16 at 9:46 pm to Dr RC
jesus who gives a shite? It'll make what it makes. Why the frick is there fighting with someone who hates the movie over this?
Posted on 4/2/16 at 9:47 pm to LfcSU3520
quote:
jesus who gives a shite? It'll make what it makes. Why the frick is there fighting with someone who hates the movie over this?
To be fair, a lot rides on this movies' success. More DC movies. Zack Snyder's involvement. The whole plan for DC. These things matter for fans.
Posted on 4/2/16 at 9:50 pm to Freauxzen
I totally get that. But this back and forth by people who are just spinning their wheels is stupid.
Posted on 4/2/16 at 10:06 pm to LfcSU3520
When Clark and Diana are beating the crap out of Doomsday together and Bruce is just like
Posted on 4/2/16 at 10:08 pm to WeBleedCrimson
quote:
When Clark and Diana are beating the crap out of Doomsday together and Bruce is just like
Hey man, he'd just killed like a thousand criminals. He was going to let Supes and Wondy have a shot at this one.
Posted on 4/2/16 at 10:37 pm to WeBleedCrimson
quote:
When Clark and Diana are beating the crap out of Doomsday together and Bruce is just like
I mentioned this earlier, I have a problem with Batman being in this world with gods and monsters. I'm sure it's fine in other mediums but it was pretty weak to me on film. He looked so out of place in that final battle. I much prefer Batman in a more grounded, and realistic world. 
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