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Started By
Message
re: Why couldn’t Curt Cignetti win a title until 2025?
Posted on 7/29/26 at 9:00 am to chalmetteowl
Posted on 7/29/26 at 9:00 am to chalmetteowl
quote:
We are in a world where Vanderbilt and Indiana got good…
I asked AI to average the predicted final records from 5 different betting odds sources for their 12 opponents.
4 out of 12 are predicted to have winning records. Miami is predicted to have 10.5 wins in this analysis and I think they actually take a bigger step back than that, but then again, their conference is garbage.
Their record is absolutely garbage and even my Notre Dame fan friends, who I strangely have several, admit it. They are actually pissed about how boring the regular season will be for them.
0
Posted on 7/29/26 at 9:00 am to theCAW
quote:
Miami alone is a tougher game than facing most teams in the sec.
So you're comparing the very best game (by far) on their schedule with the bottom half of the SEC schedule?
This is disingenuous.
ETA:
And I think Miami takes a pretty big step back.
Also, for the record, while 4/12 ND opponents are predicted to having winning records, 11/16 SEC teams are predicted to have winning records. One of those not predicted to have a winning record is South Carolina, who would be the 3rd or 4th hardest game on ND's schedule.
This post was edited on 7/29/26 at 9:03 am
Posted on 7/29/26 at 9:01 am to Fun Bunch
quote:dude you’re supporting my point.
He was at IUP, Elon, and JMU. He went 53-17, 14-9, and 52-9 at those places That is elite coaching. Not exactly a murderer's row of schools It is very very very hard and requires luck as well to win an NC. There are all time great coaches that only won 1-2 or none at all.
I said he was a top tier coach at those places.
And while I agree completely they’re not a murderers row of programs (though JMU is above average as they’ve produced a few winners in recent times), neither was Indiana.
Yet it took him 2 seasons to do it at Indiana while coaching in the highest level of CFB versus coaching at the lower levels
This post was edited on 7/29/26 at 9:05 am
Posted on 7/29/26 at 9:02 am to chalmetteowl
quote:
quote:
Notre Dame basically has 12 pre-season games before the playoffs this year
Am I missing something or is this more irrational Notre Dame hate? I see 10 P4s, including last year’s runner up Miami. Sure I don’t see any SEC teams but then again they haven’t played for a natty in a few years, while Notre Dame has. Even one of their cupcakes, Navy, is favored to win the American conference.
I am as diehard ND as anyone, but it's a bad schedule. Certainly not up to what ND fans want, and certainly not up to the standard of what we should be playing.
We play one legit national title contender in Miami and 1 - 2 more who will likely be vying for playoff spots in BYU and SMU, but it's a real bag of shite after that. Some of that is out our control (e.g., Wisconsin has imploded as a program since we scheduled that game, USC being a bunch of bitches and effectively backing out of the series, Michigan State being at the nadir of their program this century), and some of that is within our control (effectively, Swarbrick tried to schedule Brian Kelly X # of wins via the ACC agreement and soft-ish non-ACC scheduling). It begins to get better next year (Auburn, Clemson, BYU, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Michigan State), and it's no coincidence that next year is the first year where Bevacqua's and Freeman's hands are in nearly full control of the schedule given how far out scheduling has to occur these days.
We have mostly played bag of shite schedules with maybe 1 or 2 exceptions since about 2018. That was largely on Swarbrick and Kelly and also why ND fans weren't kidding when they were telling LSU fans that he wasn't as good as people might have thought he was ("All time winningest ND coach!", etc.). It starts to turn around next year.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 9:03 am to CatfishJohn
quote:no sorry I was just commenting on a single game being tough.
So you're comparing the very best game (by far) on their schedule with the bottom half of the SEC schedule? This is disingenuou
Their schedule overall is pretty soft I agree with that criticism.
But it’s not all cupcakes.i was arguing against the comment that nd has 12 preseason games before the playoffs. Miami is better than not just the bottom but most of the top half.
They only sec teams that are arguably in miamis level are Texas and UGA right now
And byu and smu have a pulse.
So they have 9 pre season caliber games
This post was edited on 7/29/26 at 9:07 am
Posted on 7/29/26 at 9:05 am to CatfishJohn
quote:with mensah I argue they take a step forward and win the natty this year
I think Miami takes a pretty big step back.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 9:14 am to theCAW
quote:
Yet it took him 2 seasons to do it at Indiana while coaching in the highest level of CFB versus coaching at the lower levels
Part of this is right place at the right time
Weak schedule, a program no one gave a frick about so no pressure, and the right strategy:
Now that he can pay players, he went all in on a team of grown arse men, 25 year olds.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 9:15 am to theCAW
quote:
quote:
I think Miami takes a pretty big step back.
with mensah I argue they take a step forward and win the natty this year
Eh, maybe. They've got some dudes on offense in Mensah, Fletcher, and especially Toney, but they have to completely rebuild both lines. Plenty of talent there, but that's not a given by any stretch.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 9:16 am to theCAW
quote:
with mensah I argue they take a step forward and win the natty this year
Titles aren't won without the trenches.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 9:16 am to theCAW
quote:
They only sec teams that are arguably in miamis level are Texas and UGA right now
Posted on 7/29/26 at 9:21 am to CatfishJohn
It’s true.
Ole Miss, lsu, Aggy are until proven otherwise a step below Miami.
Think about it.
LSU and Georgia and Ohio state thrive in talent rich states and being the only major program in their states
Miami usually shares Florida with fsu and UF but with both those programs being dead Miami is basically the only major program in arguably the most talent rich states and they have a ton of nil money in the most talent rich part of their state
Ole Miss, lsu, Aggy are until proven otherwise a step below Miami.
Think about it.
LSU and Georgia and Ohio state thrive in talent rich states and being the only major program in their states
Miami usually shares Florida with fsu and UF but with both those programs being dead Miami is basically the only major program in arguably the most talent rich states and they have a ton of nil money in the most talent rich part of their state
This post was edited on 7/29/26 at 9:25 am
Posted on 7/29/26 at 9:21 am to CatfishJohn
quote:and they’re absolutely loaded in the trenches and have been almost every year under Cristobal outside of his first season
Titles aren't won without the trenches.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 9:27 am to theCAW
he’s has a couple
of young coordinators who do a great job and honestly college football just sucks right now.
It’s been pretty bad since 2022.
of young coordinators who do a great job and honestly college football just sucks right now.
It’s been pretty bad since 2022.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 9:32 am to SammyTiger
quote:since 2020
It’s been pretty bad since 2022
Imo
That year was a shite show and every season since has been meh.
Expanding to 12 team playoff has made it worse too
Posted on 7/29/26 at 10:09 am to theCAW
quote:
Why couldn’t Curt Cignetti win a title until 2025?
I don’t get the point of this thread. This could be said about anyone.
Why didn’t Bear Bryant win a title in the 13 years he was a HC before Alabama?
Why didn’t Saban when he was at Michigan State?
Why couldn’t Vince Lombardi win a state title as a HS head coach for several years?
To answer your question: It’s hard to win a title, you have to be in the perfect situation with the right group of people, and you improve as a coach as you get older.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 10:15 am to theCAW
quote:
since 2020
Imo
2021 was before NIL was really a thing and the transfer portal was still in its infancy. Even the following year in 2022 both of those things existed still but they weren't rampantly used and abused. I think 2023 is when you really started seeing rosters massively turn over with the portal, and the wild west of money being paid to anyone and everyone. It's only gotten worse with each passing year but I still think our titles were the last truly "legit" ones.
In my recollection we only had 1 guy both years that had any kind of impact at all that we poached out of the portal (derion kendrick in 21 and tykee smith in 22). The rest of the team were all dudes that we recruited and we developed, with most of them coming before you could openly just pay whoever you want.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 10:23 am to theCAW
He did an excellent job of player analysis in the portal and invested in a bunch of grown arse men. Strong coaching staff, worked under Saban, yada yada.
The fact that IU of all places is able to win a natty in 2 years shows you how much the game has changed.
The fact that IU of all places is able to win a natty in 2 years shows you how much the game has changed.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 11:14 am to Fun Bunch
quote:
He went 52-9 at JMU
What a stupid thread
Did he win a Natty? If not, then shut-up.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 11:18 am to theCAW
He didn't have Mark Cuban
Posted on 7/29/26 at 11:25 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
pathetic regular season schedule as is the case with most big10 teams
Why do SEC fans continue to just spew BS? Just because Tennessee and Florida and Auburn are on your schedule doesn't mean they are any good. Their name inflates how good they are as a program today, and until people realize that today, Indiana Washington Oregon and USC are better programs than Texas, OU, Florida and Auburn overall then we can realize that the B1G has as many top level programs as the SEC, and the middle is closer than it ever was pre NIL.
I will absolutely hear argument that the bottom of the SEC is better than the B1G, but that is hard to determine as those teams aren't matching up against each other and since the SEC has been so inflated at the top recently, it could also justify that those bottom SEC teams weren't as good as thought during seasons
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