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What started the “going for it on 4th” trend?
Posted on 10/13/24 at 9:55 pm
Posted on 10/13/24 at 9:55 pm
Watching the NYG-Bengals game got me thinking…
When I was younger…say, 10-15 yrs ago…almost no 4th downs were gone for. Nowadays it seems like there are far more attempts on 4th down from mid-field…or even in negative territory.
Was there a rule change that drove this? Or was it just a mindset change? Any relationship to higher-productivity offenses?
Is this the right move for offenses?
God damnit. Please move to MSB.
When I was younger…say, 10-15 yrs ago…almost no 4th downs were gone for. Nowadays it seems like there are far more attempts on 4th down from mid-field…or even in negative territory.
Was there a rule change that drove this? Or was it just a mindset change? Any relationship to higher-productivity offenses?
Is this the right move for offenses?
God damnit. Please move to MSB.
This post was edited on 10/13/24 at 9:56 pm
23
Posted on 10/13/24 at 10:06 pm to PenguinNinja
Is this about “the draft” that Kevin Costner movie?
Posted on 10/13/24 at 10:07 pm to GatorPA84
I think he’s watching ‘Little Giants”
Posted on 10/13/24 at 10:13 pm to PenguinNinja
Analytics and offenses are more capable of making the conversion.
Posted on 10/13/24 at 10:15 pm to GatorPA84
Wrong Costner movie. I'm pretty sure this is about Field of Dreams.
Posted on 10/13/24 at 10:21 pm to PenguinNinja
Math. Percentages say you’re better off going for it unless you have an elite punter.
Posted on 10/13/24 at 10:23 pm to GatorPA84
Al Pacino “inches” speech
Posted on 10/13/24 at 11:08 pm to PenguinNinja
quote:The favoring of offense in all rule changes, and the gradual removal of physicality from the game increased the odds of converting
What started the “going for it on 4th” trend?
Posted on 10/13/24 at 11:18 pm to PenguinNinja
Analytics
Posted on 10/13/24 at 11:19 pm to PenguinNinja
Mike Leach. Although I think his moves were based more on gut feelings than math.
Miss me some Leach.
Miss me some Leach.
This post was edited on 10/13/24 at 11:20 pm
Posted on 10/14/24 at 12:12 am to PenguinNinja
Fans playing madden realized that punting from 4th and 2 on the opponents 43 yard line is stupid - this combined with casual fan access to analytics allowed for coaches being able to be more aggressive and not get their dick slapped off in the media the next week for the 1 out of 5 times that this plan fails.
Posted on 10/14/24 at 6:02 am to PenguinNinja
As others have said, the onset of analytics as an in-game tool plus offenses being more dynamic now.
However, one issue is that the analytics are simply that — data. They don’t take into account things like momentum, road environments, injuries, talent disparity, etc. Analytics can’t take into account something like Death Valley at night.
Case in point, Ole Miss passed up a chip shot field goal against LSU and opted to go for it. They got stuffed and LSU ultimately came back and forced OT, which wouldn’t have happened if OM would’ve taken the points.
However, one issue is that the analytics are simply that — data. They don’t take into account things like momentum, road environments, injuries, talent disparity, etc. Analytics can’t take into account something like Death Valley at night.
Case in point, Ole Miss passed up a chip shot field goal against LSU and opted to go for it. They got stuffed and LSU ultimately came back and forced OT, which wouldn’t have happened if OM would’ve taken the points.
Posted on 10/14/24 at 7:20 am to PenguinNinja
The Longest Yard
Posted on 10/14/24 at 7:47 am to PenguinNinja
Analytics
A few years back there was a high school coach who gained notoriety because he’d done the math and determined that it was statistically more favorable to go for it. He literally never punted
As the MIT nerds made their way into football (as in baseball) this was a very predictable outcome.
Now there is some (a lot) of validity to the math but as always feel for the game must also be used
A few years back there was a high school coach who gained notoriety because he’d done the math and determined that it was statistically more favorable to go for it. He literally never punted
As the MIT nerds made their way into football (as in baseball) this was a very predictable outcome.
Now there is some (a lot) of validity to the math but as always feel for the game must also be used
Posted on 10/14/24 at 7:50 am to Quatre Pot
quote:
A few years back there was a high school coach who gained notoriety because he’d done the math and determined that it was statistically more favorable to go for it. He literally never punted
What they don’t tell you was that high school team had a big talent advantage over most of their opponents
Posted on 10/14/24 at 7:57 am to PenguinNinja
Punting is a terrible outcome for a drive, not a neutral one. They've mathematical proven how bad it is. If it's 4th and short it's almost always better to go for it.
This has actually been common knowledge for a while. But the general public and media had to catch up coaches were too scared to take the heat otherwise.
This has actually been common knowledge for a while. But the general public and media had to catch up coaches were too scared to take the heat otherwise.
This post was edited on 10/14/24 at 7:58 am
Posted on 10/14/24 at 7:59 am to PenguinNinja
People can throw out the term analytics but you can think of it concretely in terms of field position.
If you're on the opponent's side of the field, past the 50, if you punt there's a high likelihood that your opponent will get the ball on the 20 (now 25). The net yardage "gained" by that choice is not very good compared to the opportunity you give up in scoring.
Another way to describe it is the field position you lose by failing to convert isn't that consequential compared to your opponent getting the ball at the 25. Losing the opportunity to score is much more consequential than the 20 yards or so you give up every now and again.
If you're on the opponent's side of the field, past the 50, if you punt there's a high likelihood that your opponent will get the ball on the 20 (now 25). The net yardage "gained" by that choice is not very good compared to the opportunity you give up in scoring.
Another way to describe it is the field position you lose by failing to convert isn't that consequential compared to your opponent getting the ball at the 25. Losing the opportunity to score is much more consequential than the 20 yards or so you give up every now and again.
Posted on 10/14/24 at 7:59 am to Quatre Pot
quote:
Analytics
A few years back there was a high school coach who gained notoriety because he’d done the math and determined that it was statistically more favorable to go for it. He literally never punted
As the MIT nerds made their way into football (as in baseball) this was a very predictable outcome.
Now there is some (a lot) of validity to the math but as always feel for the game must also be used
Kevin Kelly, He was at Pulaski Academy (Where Hunter Henry went)
He later would get into low level college ball and flame out.
He actually was part of the wave which is incredible.
Posted on 10/14/24 at 8:04 am to PenguinNinja
Chip Kelly
Posted on 10/14/24 at 8:05 am to SlowFlowPro
There are essentially two key points that people have to grasp to "get" it
1. The yardage you push your opponent back doesn't prevent them from scoring on their next possession nearly as much as you probably think it does
2. You are consistently costing yourself points that you can score if you convert.
1. The yardage you push your opponent back doesn't prevent them from scoring on their next possession nearly as much as you probably think it does
2. You are consistently costing yourself points that you can score if you convert.
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