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re: Should a team’s worst hitter bat 9th?

Posted on 4/24/25 at 12:50 pm to
Posted by lsu777
Lake Charles
Member since Jan 2004
36784 posts
Posted on 4/24/25 at 12:50 pm to
quote:

can you show me the data?


i cant, that is what i was saying. you have to look at the data on your team but if you click on the link and subsequent twitter post he goes through it

but if you look at it...the chances of you being up with 2 outs...the 7th hitter is 3rd % wise. The 3 hole is has the most appearances with 2 outs and the 4th hole has 2nd most then the 7th hole across mlb according to fangraphs


but my comment was based on how you should look at the trends specifically for your team and decide that away. specifically looking at season long trends, and then micro-cycle trends...maybe that is 10 games, maybe 15 etc.

point is there is no single way to do the line up and you should play the percentages for your specific team and their weaknesses and strengths.

Posted by lsu777
Lake Charles
Member since Jan 2004
36784 posts
Posted on 4/24/25 at 12:51 pm to
quote:


well that’s why you pay for a good manager LOL. Every decision is a risk including the starting lineup


most managers go by feel not %

that is why you have a sports science department to break the trends down so the manager has the information to make a decision.
Posted by Bestbank Tiger
Premium Member
Member since Jan 2005
79296 posts
Posted on 4/24/25 at 12:59 pm to
The Cardinals moved the pitcher to 8 during the home run chase.
Posted by Tiger Ryno
#WoF
Member since Feb 2007
107551 posts
Posted on 4/24/25 at 1:19 pm to
Please email this to corch Jay Johnston.
Posted by Indiangensing
Member since Nov 2017
2181 posts
Posted on 4/24/25 at 1:21 pm to
Unpopular opinion here... I wish they would get rid of the DH altogether. I liked seeing a good hitting pitcher.

One of my favorite moments was when Bartolo Colon hit a home run after playing for 20+ years.
Posted by Indiangensing
Member since Nov 2017
2181 posts
Posted on 4/24/25 at 1:24 pm to
quote:

The Cardinals moved the pitcher to 8 during the home run chase.


Larussa did that a lot... especially in the late 2000s if Jason Marquis was pitching.
This post was edited on 4/24/25 at 1:25 pm
Posted by SammyTiger
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2009
78294 posts
Posted on 4/24/25 at 1:24 pm to
I think the idea is throughout the game do you want to put your 2 most likely outs in front of your best 3 hitters?
Posted by lsu777
Lake Charles
Member since Jan 2004
36784 posts
Posted on 4/24/25 at 1:25 pm to
quote:

Please email this to corch Jay Johnston.




we sure he isnt doing those things? seems people jump on him without any context.
Posted by chalmetteowl
Chalmette
Member since Jan 2008
53786 posts
Posted on 4/24/25 at 1:37 pm to
quote:

I wish they would get rid of the DH altogether. I liked seeing a good hitting pitcher.



This. The DH is the only rule in the history of any sport made because players couldn’t compete in a part of the game
Posted by AtlantaLSUfan
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2009
26729 posts
Posted on 4/24/25 at 1:38 pm to
The thought is that worst hitter will end the inning and you get to start an inning with top of the order.
Posted by ChanceOfRainIsNever
Far from Louisiana
Member since Oct 2016
2764 posts
Posted on 4/24/25 at 1:53 pm to
quote:

na...the nerds have made it to where the game is played at a higher level than ever before. We throw harder, hit harder, run faster etc than ever before


Players also get hurt more, there’s less balls in play and players have shorter careers either through injury or because they can’t hit certain metrics anymore. That then makes players more replaceable and thus teams don’t have to pay them as much.
Posted by jizzle6609
Houston
Member since Jul 2009
17666 posts
Posted on 4/24/25 at 2:06 pm to
quote:


quote:
This guys says they should bat 7th.


This was a thing no less than like 15-20 years ago


They should bat him 1st so he gets more at bats and gets better.
Posted by McDonaldsBagMan
Member since Apr 2025
217 posts
Posted on 4/24/25 at 2:12 pm to
Your 9 hole hitter is going to have the lowest overall amount of at-bats.

These analysts are overthinking it. Your worst hitter should absolutely be in the 9 hole.

NL pitchers batted 8th "back in the day" because they were better hitters (or had better OBP) than the player starting that day in the 9 hole.
This post was edited on 4/24/25 at 2:20 pm
Posted by lsu777
Lake Charles
Member since Jan 2004
36784 posts
Posted on 4/24/25 at 2:25 pm to
quote:

Players also get hurt more,


that maybe true but in the only study that looked at this, the injuries from 1998-2015 increased yearly. I would be willing to bet, they also increased the 18 years prior on year to year basis and we know they have increased since 2016-2024 on year to year basis

so it was happening before the nerds took over and has been happening since they removed amphetamines from the equation, started sitting guys for injuries more and started medical screening.

quote:

there’s less balls in play


that is a two fold reason

1) pitching is much better than ever and as velocity goes up, BAA goes down and velo has increased year over year for a long time. Also as vertical & horz break has increased...BAA has once again gone down. Movement and spin rate are also at all time highs.

2) because of the "nerds" we saw the shift increase. this caused the other nerds to realize that simply putting the ball in play was not much better than strikeout when it came to % increase of moving runner or scoring a run. the increase in overall speed/range and increase in arm strength also played a part in this so the hitters try and hit the ball hard no matter what and not just poke it.

quote:

players have shorter careers either through injury or because they can’t hit certain metrics anymore


or because teams understand value more now in terms of production. They are not going to keep the expensive aging vet on the team just for name sake anymore.

and if they cant hit metrics, they cant be productive in todays game.

quote:

That then makes players more replaceable and thus teams don’t have to pay them as much.



correct...if you dont produce, you are out in todays game. the past is the past, only the present and future matter to teams now.
Posted by extremetigerfanatic
Member since Oct 2003
5851 posts
Posted on 4/24/25 at 2:48 pm to
If you ask Grok it will tell you analytically that the 7th hitter gets an avg 29 more at-bats than the 9th hitter in a 162 game season. So that’s one extra at bat every 5.5 games.

I feel like you want you better hitter at bat more than your worst.

So in a one game scenario or a 7 game series maybe you try it. But over the long haul I don’t know that you do.

Also, I would think that if the 7th and 9th hitters have a small disparity in avg or if they have a huge disparity would play in.

But if you’re an MLB team why is your 9th hitter so bad. It’s not a high school team with limited options.
This post was edited on 4/24/25 at 2:55 pm
Posted by lsu777
Lake Charles
Member since Jan 2004
36784 posts
Posted on 4/24/25 at 2:51 pm to
quote:


If you ask Grok it will tell you analytically that the 7th hitter gets an avg 29 more at-bats than the 9th hitter in a 162 game season.

I feel like you want you better hitter at bat more than your worst.

So in a one game scenario or a 7 game series maybe you try it. But over the long haul I don’t know that you do.


is the goal to score runs and win....or get someone more at bats?

last time i looked the goal is to score runs, if your 7th hole comes up a ton with 0 runners on and 2 outs....it would be better from run producing standpoint to bat the better person at 8 or 9 even with less overall at bats.

assuming the difference in hr over those 29 at bats is not more than the difference in run producing scenarios
Posted by LSUFanHouston
NOLA
Member since Jul 2009
40251 posts
Posted on 4/24/25 at 2:54 pm to
So you want your worst hitter getting more plate apparances than someone who is a better hitter?
Posted by BigBinBR
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2023
9325 posts
Posted on 4/24/25 at 3:04 pm to
quote:

What's the thought process with 7th?

9th hole gets fewest PAs per game. There's an art to putting together a lineup, but you can also run the danger of overthinking things.


The thought is because it's really only "7th" the first time through the order. After that it loops back around. If you have your worst hitter at 9 then he is always hitting right before your best hitters. Ideally you would like to have the person in 9th be able to reliably get on base so that your best hitters 1-3 can hit 2 singles and score him. The same basic thought is for batting 8th as well because it is close enough to your good hitters.


Posted by FleurDeLonestar
The Dirty HOU
Member since Mar 2011
6255 posts
Posted on 4/24/25 at 3:20 pm to
I always put our worst hitter in the 1 hole in beer league softball to avoid double plays
Posted by Palo Gaucho
Benton
Member since Jul 2013
3418 posts
Posted on 4/24/25 at 3:32 pm to
Tony Larussa would bat the pitcher 8th
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